tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-58395058898504585592024-03-14T00:57:03.497-07:00GUMP的奇思妙想GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.comBlogger78125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-27902184673044094132024-03-02T21:25:00.000-08:002024-03-02T21:25:16.606-08:00当人们开始坚信货币贬值,镰刀就变换了它的方式<p><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF5Egzut_zJX4FZRTxw4ZZZE3aoYRuy-0sP4HCAWIbsj0pTCIKhqYZGn9t7h9F9FJ6sK5O_izPxrx7avAJhY0N5wbc8zmye8ixwOlLKeQKIGR1Wf9TmrTm7Cx2LMYkIpx4aehrpfZ0eaXfjt4A8rrmaBqJXIKo_O539FQZLkBDcoCXmQQEGssTIG3cGpne/s640/v2-bf57666684604b6f5dcb2def3001d5b5_720w.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="390" data-original-width="640" height="375" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgF5Egzut_zJX4FZRTxw4ZZZE3aoYRuy-0sP4HCAWIbsj0pTCIKhqYZGn9t7h9F9FJ6sK5O_izPxrx7avAJhY0N5wbc8zmye8ixwOlLKeQKIGR1Wf9TmrTm7Cx2LMYkIpx4aehrpfZ0eaXfjt4A8rrmaBqJXIKo_O539FQZLkBDcoCXmQQEGssTIG3cGpne/w615-h375/v2-bf57666684604b6f5dcb2def3001d5b5_720w.jpg" width="615" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12pt; letter-spacing: 0.75pt;">昨晚,钟点工阿姨在我家做晚饭时问了我一个问题,说今年要不要买房。</span><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我反问她为什么要买房呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">她回答说因为货币拿在手上贬值,辛苦赚的钱都被稀释掉了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">然后我就在想,货币贬值已经是这么深入人心的一件事了吗?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">好吧,我们知道,人和人之间要拉开财富差距,重点在分配环节而不在创造环节。金融在财富分配环节,是可以让一部分人轻松拿走另一部分人的财富的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">过去,这个方法叫货币稀释,或者说通过资产为锚作债务扩张。简单说就是找到劳动时间价值的锚,比如房产,然后通过负债买入房产。当货币贬值时,你的债务也跟着贬值,但由于资产没贬值,因此你靠债务吸收了他人的财富。依靠财富分配环节的漏洞,快速做大了你的财富。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">这个方法我在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">下半年发过多篇文章详细描述过。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但是。。。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">如果人人都认为货币要贬值,我们又要去吸收谁的财富?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我们知道,穷人和富人,都很难收割。真正容易被收割的其实是中产。那么当中产都认为货币要贬值,要负债时,收割中产的,会不会是另外一个方式?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">或者我换个问题,货币贬值,是不是操盘手可以为所欲为的?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我们来展开说明。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">假定有两个国家,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">A</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">(美国)和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">B</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">(中国),美国是富国,其人均</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">GDP</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">是中国的十倍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">十倍代表什么意思,代表着美国和中国在可贸易品领域,拥有着十倍的劳动生产率差距。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">举例来说,假定美国平均</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">人月能生产</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台汽车,而中国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">人月只能生产</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">台汽车。那么在贸易时,美国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">个人月的劳动就可以换取中国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">个人月的劳动。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当然真实情况要复杂的多,</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍的劳动差更多体现在先进科技领域。但无论美国还是中国,从事科技研发的人们,占比肯定是少数。更多的人其实在不可贸易的服务业,比如卡车司机,理发师,餐厅服务员等。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">虽然美国的理发师和中国的理发师提供完全一样的劳动,但由于各自在各自国家的封闭市场里进行劳动交换,美国理发师的服务对象是美国的富裕科技人员,所以,从货币上看,美国理发师收入也是中国理发师的十倍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但这只是货币价格的幻象,美国理发师并没有比中国富裕十倍,因为货币是要看购买力的。美国的所谓富裕,只是体现在购买可贸易的工业品上(比如手机,电脑等)。而一旦涉及到服务业,就是我的时间换你的时间,大家本质没区别。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">所以,虽然人均</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">GDP</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">相差</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍,真实的生活品质相差,连</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍都没有,如果美国恰好处于老龄化而中国在人口红利,那么在中国的生活品质,其实是反超美国的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当然,在这里,浮现出第一层金融套利机会,就是美国的理发师,可以把美国赚的钱购买中国的房产。通过将短期资金换为资产的长期现金流(房租),来实现在中国的财务自由。毕竟美国干一年相当于中国干十年(不考虑消费支出的话)。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">二三十年前,很多中国人去日本打几年工,然后回国买上几套房靠租金财务自由,都是用的这种套利方法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当然,这只是很粗浅的第一层套利,富国赚钱然后在穷国财务自由,所有人都能看明白,所以我们也是看不上的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">第一层不过是雕虫小技!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">那有没有在中国赚几年钱,反过来能在美国实现财务自由的方法呢?这就是我们要说的第二层。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">由于中国落后,其经济增速就大概率比美国快,因为中国可以抄。抄要比创新简单。那我们假设</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">5</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年之后,中国和美国在可贸易品领域的劳动生产率差距从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍缩减为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">5</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍(也就是人均</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">GDP</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">差距变为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">5</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍)。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">那</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">A</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">和</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">B</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">这时怎么做生意呢?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">有两种方法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">方法一,中国科技人员工资不变,但中国货币汇率相对美国上升一倍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">方法二,中国科技人员工资上涨一倍,但中国汇率和美国保持稳定。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">如果采用方法一,容易造成国际热钱套利资金涌入(参见广场协议),所以,我们国家采用的是方法二。也就是经济增长的同时,我主动提高本国人员工资。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">而这就需要发行货币。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当科技人员的工资上涨一倍时,服务业人员由于也在和科技人员进行着劳动交换,所以服务业人员的工资也就被动的上涨了一倍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">由于物价成本归根到底就是背后的人工成本。那么,从中国人民的视角看,货币就贬值了一倍。于是大家发现,理发费用涨了一倍,牛肉面价格涨了一倍,买包子涨了一倍。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">但从美国人民的视角看,中国的货币没有任何贬值,依然可以购买美国同样的产品或服务。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">虽然从美国的视角,中国的资产无论是方法一和方法二,都上涨了一倍。但对于我们套利却有着本质不同。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">说穿了,方法二可以利用资产的自我造血,而方法一不可以。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">从数学上看,当首付为</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">30%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,贷款额</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">70%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,资产涨一倍,净资产可以是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">3</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍多的利润,如果再加上资产自我造血和债务扩张,资产涨一倍的情况下,极限利润可以到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍多(数学上的证明就不给出了)。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">所以,方法二对于我们来说,将有着激动人心的利润。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当然,美国同样可能也会有货币超发,但由于中国的劳动生产率相对</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">A</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">是提高了一倍。那么如果美国货币贬值为原来的一半,中国就必须要贬值为原来的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1/4</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,才能实现汇率上的稳定。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">好了,既然抄作业是简单的,既然中国快速提升生产率是一个确定性事件,那么货币贬值(从中国视角看)也就是一个确定性事件。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">投资最重要的是什么?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">不是收益率,而是确定性!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">只有确定性,我才敢上杠杆压上巨大的仓位!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">于是,第二层套利机会浮出水面。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">与其在美国劳动赚钱再拿去中国买资产。那还不如利用中国资产的自身造血能力,通过债务扩张的方式大肆扩张财富。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">最快的赚钱方式是什么,玩金融啊!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">劳动赚钱是加法,资产和债务扩张是乘法。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">赚钱一定没有借钱快!</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">只要货币贬值,资产的货币价格就会膨胀,于是可以抵押出更多的货币购买资产,资产膨胀就可以再次做增量市值抵押,于是可以靠着这个循环扩张出巨额财富。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">这个循环的详细操作方法,我在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">2021</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">下半年的财务自由系列篇已有详细叙述。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当然,这个膨胀循环,是要有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">JYD</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">辅助的(你懂的),否则按揭限贷已经阻断了你的债务扩张去路。如果你再懂股市,加上股房周期联动,威力就更大。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">这个,就叫在经济增速上加杠杆。我们可以反过来,在中国</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">5</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年的财富扩张,就比日本劳动赚钱</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">30</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年还多得多。轻松实现在东京生活的财务自由。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">这个就是第二层套利,利用汇率稳定和经济增长进行套利。人均</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">GDP</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">每增长</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍,依靠资产自我造血和债务扩张可以达成极限</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍的利润增长(实际情况会有各种限制所以真实达不到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">11</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">倍,这里说的是上限)。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当然,前提条件是,你得充分信任中国在经济增长的同时能顶住美国压力让货币汇率不升值。这样才能营造出货币贬值(资产升值)的国内环境。否则我们的资产自我造血就变成了无源之水。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">好了,接下来我们再说第三层。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">第三层,中国的高速发展终归是有限的,如果某一天中国的经济增速进入低常态。那么匹配高增速的资产就会比较危险。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">进入低常态的可能原因也许有很多,可能是世界老大不愿意给你抄作业了,也可能是人口结构开始恶化。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我在节前曾发过楼市的估值方法的文章。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我们知道,资产的价值等于未来所有现金流的折现。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">每年等额的现金流是一种模式,每年都有增长的现金流也是一种模式。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">所以,租金回报比国外低没关系,收入房价比要比国外低也没关系。只要你的经济增速比国外高,租金和收入都会增长的比国外更快,最终靠长期回报来弥补掉短期的低租售比和低收入房价比。换句话说,这一切都能被经济增速消化掉。但如果你的经济增速掉了,你资产却还是高估值,那就危险了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我在前一篇楼市估值模型的文章中提过,一只业绩增速</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的股票,在估值不变情况下,股价每年都会上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。但如果业绩增速从</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">跌落到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,那么绝不意味着每年上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">50%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">的股票变为每年上涨</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">,而是根据新的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">增速的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">PEG</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">估值模型,使得股价立即下跌</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">60%</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">我们知道,所谓房产市值,只是边际交易的价格投影。一个小区</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">3000</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">套房子,即使一年只成交了</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">3</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">套,其成交价格如果是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">万,小区的所有业主也都会认为自己房子的价值就是</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">10</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">万。但如果所有人都卖出,实际这个价格是支撑不住的。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">也就是我去年发文时说过的,万物皆周期和庞氏。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">所以,当觉察到经济增速不再时,我们要果断置换高估值资产。要么置换到局部可能高增长的区域,要么更换为低估值的美元或日元资产。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD7mhXTsLAXFKfEnYIsd8KFCBnst2dLkOJvoSWWGDP_2E0LZbuApi3vbBBIwx3dvBDnN1RPwmdX9rU1bbUTQJK8abw456h_lvLGCMd1QqciELau3ugNd5EY6_3rW3WUv2x3tkxQCo7hE7yAKNdi2oHAP5-fwM39u_Q_GibG-4rXPEVEO-BXnWY50aszq74/s770/GettyImages-1248674199.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="513" data-original-width="770" height="411" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhD7mhXTsLAXFKfEnYIsd8KFCBnst2dLkOJvoSWWGDP_2E0LZbuApi3vbBBIwx3dvBDnN1RPwmdX9rU1bbUTQJK8abw456h_lvLGCMd1QqciELau3ugNd5EY6_3rW3WUv2x3tkxQCo7hE7yAKNdi2oHAP5-fwM39u_Q_GibG-4rXPEVEO-BXnWY50aszq74/w617-h411/GettyImages-1248674199.webp" width="617" /></a></div><br /><o:p></o:p><p></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">最后,我们回答文章开头的问题,货币贬值是操盘手可以为所欲为的吗?</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">显然不是!除非全球只有你一家公司。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">简单的说,货币增速</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> = GDP</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">增速</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> + </span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">通货膨胀</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">当</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">GDP</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">增速没有了,货币增速就只剩通胀,因此会被极大限制。除非不要汇率了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">而当人们根据历史经验开始坚信货币贬值时,镰刀就变换了它的方式。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">新镰刀的名字叫做毒资产,或者换个文雅的名字,叫高估值资产。它也许能一次性把你过去的所有积累和未来的预期收入一把收割掉。而作为对手盘,就成了他们的第三层套利。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">写在最后:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">十几年前,我在东京秋叶原工作,我当时有个关系不错的日本朋友,从东京大学毕业后就在学校附近创业。由于秋叶原离东京大学仅</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">1</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">公里多,所以我们常在下班后约了一起吃饭。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">在我们经历物价飞涨的时代下,他们却成长在物价几乎没有变动的岁月,同时也经历了惊心动魄的泡沫经济。本文很多套利方法和认识都是来自于当时我们两个完全不同背景的年轻人的交流。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">在过去的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年,中国的房价,房租,物价,工资都涨了很多倍,也可以说货币贬值了很多倍。但从日本人的视角看,这</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年人民币却没有任何贬值,相反,人民币在日本的购买力,比</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年前更强了。因为人民币只是坚持对美元没升值,但相对日元还是有略微升值的。我看了十几年前我在日本租的房子,现在可以用更少的人民币租到了。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> <o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">造就这一切的,是这</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;">20</span><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">年强劲的经济增长。</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-top: 15.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span style="color: black; font-family: 宋体; font-size: 12.0pt; letter-spacing: .75pt; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">今年经济开始复苏,我们核心关注的点,就是经济增速是否还能持续高于周边国家。我们虽然有很多困难,但规模化也是我们的一个优势。我们没办法预测增速,所以我们只能持续关注增速。</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; margin-top: 15.0pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; vertical-align: baseline; word-break: break-all;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #333333; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; font-size: 12.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p align="left" class="MsoNormal" style="background: white; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; text-align: left;"><a href="https://weibo.com/u/2208779330" style="font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;" target="_blank"><i><span lang="EN-US" style="border: 1pt none windowtext; color: #333333; font-family: 宋体; padding: 0cm; text-decoration-line: none;">重远投资观</span></i></a><span style="color: grey; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12px;"> 2023-09-16 </span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">发布于</span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"> </span><span style="color: #999999; font-family: 宋体; mso-ascii-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-family: Arial; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-font-kerning: 0pt; mso-hansi-font-family: Arial;">上海</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: #999999; font-family: "Arial",sans-serif; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.5pt; mso-fareast-font-family: 宋体; mso-font-kerning: 0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span lang="EN-US"><o:p> https://weibo.com/ttarticle/p/show?id=2309404946719954567541</o:p></span></p>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-90013557304647634192023-11-28T03:50:00.000-08:002023-11-28T03:50:37.189-08:00你的故事,治好了我的内耗...<p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto;"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC_ioLjzLiOwFSMyBnwXfvA0LIxH3FwdM5Tqz6789N7LdW-tSkedoeVHSgq1UlncEYD3ZNb_sr1NOLr_KiN_NXlMpL4hYlm_YV8AjSc1sAvJm1YhLiMA8i2TUFXudkqGMUVWjGQOPy0ioKJGKyEVn6h32aVkTiaJC4FP8upwkEdQv8CzsoIzOTKwyLiI_T/s1953/e3c6c7de36e54e6a8b9c13b574d4485c.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1318" data-original-width="1953" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC_ioLjzLiOwFSMyBnwXfvA0LIxH3FwdM5Tqz6789N7LdW-tSkedoeVHSgq1UlncEYD3ZNb_sr1NOLr_KiN_NXlMpL4hYlm_YV8AjSc1sAvJm1YhLiMA8i2TUFXudkqGMUVWjGQOPy0ioKJGKyEVn6h32aVkTiaJC4FP8upwkEdQv8CzsoIzOTKwyLiI_T/w456-h308/e3c6c7de36e54e6a8b9c13b574d4485c.jpg" width="456" /></a></div><br />那天,和一个与我同岁但在学术成绩上大大超过我的教授朋友聊天,他突然说:你知道的吧,我其实没读过大学。我惊得下巴要掉了,说:不可能吧。他说:我高中都没读过,我读的其实是中专。我问:是因为家里没钱?还是那时候贪玩?<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />他说:我在村里是学习最好的,那时班上尖子生的首选是读中专,因为有工作分配,只有学习不好的才去读普通高中。可是我中专出来,发现已经没有什么地方去,只能进工厂,而且是最底层的车间工人。中专生和民工干的活一模一样,两百斤的化肥,一袋袋抗,累得要死,什么活都干,班组长让你扫厕所,也得去。而且跟本科生不同,我们专科生在这边没有调到机关坐办公室的机会。我一干就是五年。<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />我问:你怎么考出来的呢?<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />他说:我就是觉得自己还是喜欢读书的。我这五年自学了大学里的高数,我还参加了自考,一直拿到本科证。我就是晚上深夜班或下班后在青工宿舍里,自己看书学习,觉得这样活着才有点意义。宿舍的工友笑话我,觉得我装模作样,后来我就搬出去租房,这样可以更安静地看书考试。然后第五年,我觉得再也不能当工人了,必须离开,就辞职考了研究生。但分数线出来,我落榜了....<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />我问:那怎么办呢?再考?<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />他说:我肯定不打算再考了。我找了一个私企老板,给他做翻译,去广交会。结果在广州时,突然接到考研的那个大学招生办打来电话,说今年没招满,可以降分,问我要不要去面试,但必须要在第三天准时去学校参加。当时我在广州,距离几千公里,我立刻买了黄牛票,一路上也没座位,我就站在车厢连接处,看书复习。坐了几十个小时火车,到学校时是七点整,复试八点开始,我幸亏赶上了,我想命运终于眷顾我了。<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />我问:考上以后,命运齿轮就转动了,你就顺了吧。<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />他说:没有。研二时,我打算读博,导师都联系好了,然后突然髋关节巨疼,好多天下不了床,在大医院查了好多次,最后确诊强直性脊柱炎,你知道那种无时无刻的疼痛吗?生不如死。而且,如果疼痛消失,那就意味着关节长死,就有致残风险。我到处寻医问药,也不见好,我觉得自己下辈子完蛋了,当然也放弃了读博...<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />我问:可你现在看上去身体很好啊。后来怎么慢慢治好的?<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />他说:强直性脊柱炎是无法根治的,只能与它共存,我花了五六年时间才找到办法,但这个说来话长,我下次再和你仔细说....<br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" />我唏嘘地说:你的故事,治好了我的内耗...<p></p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto;"><br /></p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-align: right; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto;"> from 微博用户 洛之秋</p>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-60012888461673351282023-05-08T18:51:00.001-07:002023-05-08T18:51:18.420-07:002023年巴菲特股东大会来了!这是五个半小时问答的全部要点<p> <span style="caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: inherit; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px;">2023年巴菲特股东大会来了!这是五个半小时问答的全部要点</span></p><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">华尔街见闻 </span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjte6pNDtyXwFRjCKfPu2BD9xORKf1mrbzxamDpDwKA4SIBfUb8vj4S8cpGzD3sAhGdYo5rZYmay6DFtt6UwNgOA47qgAEmcVxO7hVs_M9_d8iJ4b0f241mK_g0YUDwmramXW8uYiR9nYQEOynGhdevQOMY7lNaTxXJcdl_wOfF0FFl4Z2YX9FX5vXLw/s750/E23988EBC3E5306FF264FCD76CD3E2C328EE7314_size86_w750_h560.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="560" data-original-width="750" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjjte6pNDtyXwFRjCKfPu2BD9xORKf1mrbzxamDpDwKA4SIBfUb8vj4S8cpGzD3sAhGdYo5rZYmay6DFtt6UwNgOA47qgAEmcVxO7hVs_M9_d8iJ4b0f241mK_g0YUDwmramXW8uYiR9nYQEOynGhdevQOMY7lNaTxXJcdl_wOfF0FFl4Z2YX9FX5vXLw/w403-h301/E23988EBC3E5306FF264FCD76CD3E2C328EE7314_size86_w750_h560.jpg" width="403" /></a></div><br /><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特和芒格会说什么?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">5月6日周六,从美国中部时间上午9点15分(北京时间晚10点15分)开始,今年8月30日将满93岁的巴菲特和老搭档、已经99岁的芒格出席伯克希尔哈撒韦年度股东大会的问答环节。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">这是新冠疫情之后第二次在线下举办年度股东大会,也是巴菲特第59次参加冗长的问答环节。由于不再需要提供疫苗接种证明,外界预计本次参会人数显著攀升,可能重回疫情前的3万人。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">值得注意的是,本次大会召开时的宏观背景颇不平静:美国银行业动荡不安,债务上限谈判僵持,经济徘徊于衰退的危险边缘,地缘政治冲突持续升温,人工智能正带来重大的机遇和风险,怀着“朝圣”心态而来的投资者们热切盼望聆听“奥马哈先知”对大变革时代的点评和投资智慧。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">与2020年被疫情干扰之前的线下大会传统一致,当地时间周五将在奥马哈CHI健康中心发放股东入场证,并举行伯克希尔旗下子公司们的产品购物日。在周六的问答环节开始前,伯克希尔将于美东时间早8点发布一季度财报,周日上午还有5公里“投资你自己”慢跑活动。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">华尔街见闻此前详实梳理了今年巴菲特股东大会的关注要点,巴菲特坦言去年问答环节在少数问题上花费了过多时间,今年会增加提问数量,预计将在五个半小时里回答约60个问题。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">而投资者最关心的莫过于:股票回购、巴菲特和管理所有非保险业务的公司副董事长Greg Abel交接班问题、加州到2035年禁止销售新内燃机车的大背景下巴老对石油和天然气的看法、为何看好日本股市,以及欧美银行业危机、美国债务上限、人工智能的影响等当下最热门话题。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">尽管被誉为“投资界春晚”的伯克希尔股东大会,通常会因年逾九旬的巴菲特和芒格个人魅力而充满妙语连珠、欢声笑语,并在一片“喜庆祥和”的氛围中落幕,今年股东们还是会带来一些尖锐的问题,其中包括希望伯克希尔将CEO和董事长的角色分开,要求巴菲特卸任董事长的提案。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">虽然伯克希尔“老生常谈”般再次建议股东们否决相关提案,理由是巴菲特拥有伯克希尔31.5%的投票权,董事会支持他作为控股股东同时兼任董事会主席和首席执行官,但这几年相关提案不断涌现,也突显出人们对日渐衰老的巴菲特能否顺利交接班并保留住企业文化的焦虑。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">当地时间周六早上,伯克希尔哈撒韦发布一季度财报,营收853.93亿美元,同比增长20.5%,包括全资子公司利润在内的经营利润80.65亿美元,同比增长12%,主要得益于保险业务大幅反弹。其中保险承保利润同比跃升445%至9.11 亿美元,保险投资收入跃升68%至19.69亿美元。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">财报显示,伯克希尔的现金储备从去年四季度的1280亿美元增加逾20亿美元至1306亿美元,突破1300美元大关,创2021年底以来最高。公司还回购了44亿美元股票,显著高于去年底的28亿美元,并创2021年第一季度以来的最大回购金额,伯克希尔旗下公司回购了29亿美元股票。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">值得注意的是,一季度巴菲特几乎“只抛不买”,当季出售了价值133亿美元的股票,购买股票的金额却只有其零头,由于包括苹果在内的股票投资未实现收益猛增,当季伯克希尔包括短期投资收益在内的净收益从去年同期的56亿美元增至355亿美元。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">2月25日,巴菲特巴在伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司官网公布每年一度的致股东公开信,华尔街见闻已对“股神”的投资大智慧做了全文翻译。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">与往年华尔街见闻的现场直击一样,以下将是伯克希尔股东大会要点实录,按照最新的更新时间倒序排列,去年的500字总结精华版和实录全文可点击此处链接。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">以下为巴菲特股东大会问答环节的实时更新(以大会所在地的美国中部时间为准)</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">15:36 伯克希尔哈撒韦股东大会问答环节结束,巴菲特称今年很遗憾没有回答到第60个问题,“明年再战!”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">15:33 如何把你的智慧传给孙子一辈,投资应该是家庭传统还是个人行为?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,一般看到孙辈做的事情我不喜欢,我也不会说出来。芒格说,年轻的时候做决策容易鲁莽(ignorant)。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格也称,孙辈不是完全按照他的想法来的,他很平静地接受。这看来就是生命的自然过程。巴菲特说,他觉得自己和孩子过去几十年变得更聪明了。芒格反驳,说巴菲特需要一些帮助才能做到。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">15:25 巴菲特称看伯克希尔财报不要看未实现的投资损益,因为不反映投资的长期效益,但“持有至到期”的银行资产同样是未实现损益,却引发了行业震荡,银行的财报标准为何与伯克希尔的不一样?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,资产负债表上有变动是对的,但是利润表(income statement)不应该出现未实现损益,否则就跟股东们的利益丝毫不相关,因为是未实现的投资损益。我们希望股东了解他们拥有的是什么,特别是在长期能收获什么。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">资产负债表可以告诉存款是不是能拿回来,反映这些信息。其中一部分说法是正确的,银行要决定资产负债表是否能代表价值。苹果在我们说话期间,利润表就能变化很多。如果是银行来说,不是个好的工具。但对消费者来说是个好的工具。必须要注意说,到底拥有的价值是什么样子的。管理层有义务这样去做。我给股东说的和跟我家人说的,都是一样的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">15:17 新冠疫情期间亚洲地区出现供应链问题,有了这种经历,有人就决定转移在当地的生产,如果企业这么做,政府应该支持吗?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格说,如果你觉得,转到墨西哥生产产品成本更低,那是合乎逻辑的。可是,你不会想要所有的生产都转离,掏空一个生产基地。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特提到,伯克希尔最初是一家纺织品制造商。他认为,经济繁荣意味着,社会可以照顾因为经济活动转移别处而失业的人。政府的职责是,在不让某个群体过于受苦的情况下,享受资本主义带来的好处。社会能够承受改善贸易的负面影响。希望所有国家都能够成功,而不是让美国以牺牲整个世界为代价获得成功。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">15:09 美联储现有的资产负债表规模是否令你担忧?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表称他不担心美联储,支持美联储压低通胀率的使命,他也不担心美联储的资产负债表,尽管打趣称“那是一个很大的数字,而我喜欢看这些大数字”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,看到美联储资产负债表从8000亿美元增至2.2万亿美元,就让他想到一句话“现金永远不是垃圾”。但是他反对疯狂印钱令通胀暴涨,就像二战刚结束时美国所经历的那样。对此芒格也持相同观点,称如果靠不断印钱来解决短期问题将会有负面的后果。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">15:03 全球趋势是零排放车辆正接近大量采用,你是否看到行业机遇,看好哪个汽车制造商和技术?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称, 汽车行业竞争非常激烈,5至10年后跟现在一定不一样,但是无法预言究竟如何发展,只能说就算一个公司改变了汽车,也无法控制整个市场。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">14:54 喜诗糖果(See’s candy)的运营表现和是否开新店,以及NetJet被收购后的业绩。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,喜诗糖果优秀的品牌,我们试过了这个世界上的各种办法,要把喜诗糖果的魅力扩展到加州以外的地方,但这个品牌的魅力有限,只留在美国西部附近。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格说,NetJets非常出色,认为它现在的价值不亚于任何一家航空公司。巴菲特说,NetJets的机对规模正在壮大,说它是一家了不起的公司。他没有真正回答,相比伯克希尔收购时的预期,NetJets表现怎样。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格说,他过去经常坐经济舱从洛杉矶飞到年会现场。在飞机上碰到富有的伯克希尔股东时,那些股东对他鼓掌。他喜欢那种感受。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">14:47 伯克希尔强调适当调整激励措施(properly aligned incentives),给了旗下子公司更多的自主性,能否详谈?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,拥有公司时候,经理人喜欢自己的业务,但是不喜欢上市公司带来的复杂性是不行的,因为别人会指手画脚。我的一生中有五个老板,我都很喜欢。但没什么能跟为自己工作所比拟。在这里工作能得到很多,包括自由。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">14:33 企业最少的15%税收,在计算商业税法上,延迟报税的情况,是否可以延展?比如用新能源是否可以节约税?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">15%是肯定要做的。不会很难过或不赞成,愿意付15%的税。如果必须要支付,我们很高兴这么做。以前我们付给过联邦政府52%的税。不觉得有任何方法对美国政策进行避免。新的法律还没实施,也不清楚之后有什么结果。怎么样做保守的,边际利益的保障。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">14:25 现金怎么进行给股东的分配。现金越来越多。超过1000亿美元的现金。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">伯克希尔股票比想象中低估。我们想做的是,买出色的企业。上市公司会很难。有时候会提出竞价,提出来之后,别人也来竞争。一个私有企业会相对容易。有些看起来很好的公司,在收购的时候遇到不小阻碍。有些好的公司不想全卖了公司。如果找不到好的公司,我们仍可能回购自己的股票。现在的机会不像以前那么多了,不过因为以前做出来的决定,所以仍然在赚钱,回报稳定。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">14:22 考虑到马斯克做到企业成功了,芒格有没有改变对马斯克的看法,以及马斯克有没有高估自己?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格说,马斯克确实高估他自己,但他非常有才华,所以他会高估了一个不需要靠高估就很有才华的人。如果没有给自己设定不可能实现的目标,马斯克就无法取得他如今拥有的成就。他喜欢那么做,而芒格本人和巴菲特希望做更容易的事。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,我们不想在很多事上和马斯克竞争。马斯克很聪明,可能智商超过170,说他不能用狂热这个词。芒格说,事实上就是狂热。巴菲特说,那是致力于解决不可能实现的事,对巴菲特自己和芒格来说,那是一种折磨。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">14:11 两个月前有媒体称,石油产商可能产量触顶了,能否解释伯克希尔对石油股的大幅持仓?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,美国没有其他地方可以像二叠纪盆地(permian)一样有这么多石油储备。不过页岩油井的衰败也很快,开井第一天可能产量1.2万至1.5万桶/日,也许一年或者一年半就枯竭了。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">伯克希尔非常喜欢西方石油公司在二叠纪盆地的资源和行业地位,所以我们入股了它家。我非常喜欢西方石油的管理层,对他们也很熟悉。西方石油做了很多好的事情,建了很多新井还能盈利:</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“并非像很多炒作所说,伯克希尔并不会购买西方石油的控股权,管理层已经很棒了。未来不确定是否会继续购买更多石油公司的股票,但对现在持股量很满意。”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">14:03 我们有转型到新能源的可能。现在在新能源投资量是不是够了?伯克希尔能源公司旧的能源部分是否能退休,按照制定的排放标准完成?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">风力是在爱荷华州已经开始了。在怀俄明州那里的风很强。竞争者也在进行相应资源的改变。在美国各种能源发电来讲,希望能有70%,80%的营收。我们在未来20年,还会继续投资。都需要大量投资。希望大力投资,把资产放在这些地方。伯克希尔的能源公司已经在做这样的一些改变。我们已经有40亿,会追30亿,总计70亿投资。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格说,对于全球变暖会发生到什么情况,我不觉得任何人知道。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">13:58 伯克希尔持有的娱乐传媒公司Paramount Global最近公布季报表现不佳,削减80%的股息,巴菲特怎么看流媒体行业,持股投资决定是基于基本面还是一个企业可能成为收购对象的潜力?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,对个股不做评价。我们的业务不是提供股票建议。但是任何一家公司减少派息都不是好消息。他认为,流媒体业务值得关注。上世纪30和40年代,迪士尼做动画片独树一帜,而今是一个不同的世界。观众的关注不会急剧增加,他们用来看流媒体的时间也不会增多。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特谈到电影业务时说,电影人才会赚钱,经纪人也会赚钱。可大家一天只有这么多时间,只有两只眼睛。他还说,人才总会得到回报。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">13:52 伯克希尔有一些消费品卖给一个零售商,有的卖给多个,怎么决定分销商的?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称, 有一些品牌辨识度很高。即使可以在沃尔玛卖,地位依然不一样。我们观察了多种零售方式。慢慢学会了什么需要避免。沃尔玛在分销上对我们有利。但有些产品不是可以让人开20迈过去买的产品,所以我们要有多个分销商,并且他们的价格需要合理。我们希望能有多个像沃尔玛这样有分销能力的合作方。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">13: 43 在2022年度股东信中,你说到伯克希尔的成功最重要因素是搭上了“美国顺风”,以及不做重大的错误决策。我们应该怎么避免投资和人生中的错误决定?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特和芒格都建议年轻人,花的钱要比自己赚得少,即量入为出,尽量避免信用卡债务,因为利率过高,你需要赚钱更多才能跑赢信用卡债务的利率。在房贷之外尽量不要负债。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特的人生智慧还包括:不要永远批评别人,不用贬低别人来表达自己的观点。还有一个广泛的建议:一个善良的人不会没有朋友,不要做不善良的举动。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格则称,要学会远离有毒的环境和人,坚持终生学习,充满感激之心。如果做到上述事情你还无法成功,那可能需要很多很多的幸运。但你不能只依赖于幸运,而是凭自己去赢得比赛:</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“有毒的人想要欺骗你、拖累你、伤害你,让他们快些从你的生命中滚蛋,你需要知道人们怎么操纵其他人,然后避免自己这样做。你应该写下自己的讣告,然后想办法实现所提到的成就。”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">13:26 第六次参加伯克希尔大会的13岁女孩。她问,美国大批发债,美联储让债务货币化,中国巴西沙特等都在与美元脱钩,在这种环境下,美元的货币储备地位何时会受威胁?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特认为,没有取代美元储备货币地位的候选。他说,没有人比美联储主席鲍威尔更了解形势,但他无法控制财政政策。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,谁都不知道,一种纸币能坚持用多久才会失控,尤其是在这种货币是全球储备货币的时候。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特认为,美国要大举印钞是很容易的,应该非常小心。如果货币太多,一旦把通胀的精灵从瓶子里放出来,就很难恢复,人们会对货币失去信任。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,他无法预测会有什么结果,反正不会是好结果。现在这是一个非常政治化的决策。芒格说,在某些时候,通过印钞赢得选票会适得其反。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,个人最好的防御做法就是自己赚钱的能力。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格在提到日本的货币政策和财政政策时说,日本用日元做了些奇怪的事。对于日本实施的经济政策,日本人应该接受并作出应对。巴菲特补充说,如果日元是储备货币,那些事不可能发生。巴菲特说,他佩服日本,日本有一个更有凝聚力的社会,但美国不应该效仿日本。不断印钞是疯狂的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">13:18 大银行的商业模式和区域银行的区别是什么?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">以前买了银行,投资1900万美元,那个时候在保险公司投资了1700万美元。如果银行兼并法案没有通过的话,我们会买更多银行。但是1970年通过了银行的法案,我们必须让投资多元化,没有办法都投银行业。当时看到的银行没有太多坏账,那时是非常健康的行业。人们那时候也很诚信。那时候银行业比保险业更有吸引力。那时候可以进行非常健康的行业。在银行投资上赚到很好的回报。后来我们有了一些银行的股票,再之后我们卖了。在疫情时卖了更多。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">不知道大银行、区域银行股东下面怎么走。我个人也用区域性银行。但是从投资银行、拥有银行来说,一些事件会决定他们的未来。这期间会有政客参与,有一些不了解体系的人参与,这中间的沟通是不完美的。美国公众对银行的现状很困惑。很多人不知道后果是什么。不同事件会打造不同的后果。不清楚存款、粘性到底是什么。我们对拥有银行保持非常谨慎的态度。我们现在还持有一家银行的重仓,就是美国银行,我喜欢他们的业务和管理层。不知道接下来发生什么,过去几个月让我出乎意料。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格表示,现在进行了很多投机赌博,我对这种情况非常不舒服。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">13:00 对银行业危机的评级,这个行业的风险和机遇。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特打趣称,可以用现在银行业流行的术语来形容芒格:“Available for Sale ”(可供出售)以及“Held to Maturity”(持有至到期)。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特认为,银行业的情形和过去这个行业一直存在的情况没多少差别。“恐慌是传染的,一直都是。”巴菲特说,他父亲曾在1931年因为银行挤兑而丢了工作。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,过去,如果你看到人们在银行排队,正确的反应是加入队伍排。现在是2023年,我们看到,监管机构FDIC能把存款还给每个储户,可大家还是担心。他认为,不应该发生这种情况,信息传达做得很差。政客、机构和媒体都没有很好地传达形势变化。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,银行监管的激励措施太混乱,而且很多人都想让它们出问题。这太疯狂了。如果大家觉得存款不再有黏性,那是因为生活的时代不同了。因为有了网上银行的业务,我们可能在几秒钟内出现挤兑。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,必须惩罚那些做错事的人。银行的董事有能力追究CEO的责任。如果一家银行倒闭,CEO和董事都应该受罪,否则不能给出教训。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格说,我很守旧,我更喜欢不做投资银行业务的银行。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特接着说,银行的储户不会有损失,赔钱的应该是股东和债券持有者,还有那些,在没有延长贷款期限时就利用商业地产借钱的人。必须让造成问题的人受到惩罚,才能改变他们的行为。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:57 让一个人实际自己经营公司才能看出来他的才能。未来伯克希尔旗下公司的管理者值得股东们警惕的行为是什么?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,合适的伯克希尔继承者很难找到,很高兴CEO接班人阿贝尔“是令我非常满意的人选”。伯克希尔是自动驾驶模式,可以在长期很好的运营下去,很难去判断一个很成功企业的管理层是否优秀,因为这种优质企业自己会很长时间自行运转下去,(就像伯克希尔一样)。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:49 未来投票控制问题,谁到底会在投票控制上有所有权?他们能否实现ESG目标?投票上哪个权重会更大?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,从财富管理角度出发,是对资产进行管理。大的企业像指数基金,他们想要这样一个世界,他们在资产管理上有非常小的费用,这种成功相对容易复制。这是一个很好的把钱引进来的一种方式。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:43 关于电动汽车的车主在向汽车制造商、而不是保险公司买车险,Geico怎么应对?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">主管伯克希尔保险业务的副董事长贾恩称,还没有看到很成功的案例。Geico正在与设备制造商商谈,找出一种在销售点提供保险的方法。汽车保险的利润率是4%,这是很小的数字。涉足车险的企业增加了,要在这个行业赚钱就更难了。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,通用汽车几十年前就做过汽车保险。车企自己做保险不是个新点子,至少没有什么魔力,但做起来很难。Uber有段时间签了不少保单。但对Geico来说不是什么大事。要在风险和价格匹配上做得比Geico和对手Progressive更好,那是很难的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:35 有投资者将“价值投资之父”本杰明·格雷厄姆与巴菲特并成为“种树令后人乘凉”的先驱型人物,能否听听两位年逾九旬的老人畅谈100年之后的伯克希尔?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特盛赞本杰明·格雷厄姆对他的影响,称塑造了其投资观。格雷厄姆在1949年写的书《聪明的投资者》直到现在还一直是亚马逊图书销量排名榜的前300至350名,从没有一个书能排名持续这么高,这本书是经典且一直畅销到今天。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">对于伯克希尔来说,巴菲特希望它一直是一家被股东们持有的公司,并对社会有所助益。他称伯克希尔资本雄厚、人力资源优质,“没有理由质疑我们不会像这本书一样成为时代经典。”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格提到了一件有趣的事情,即格雷厄姆本身超过50%的投资收益来自于一只股票,即现在是伯克希尔旗下的保险公司Geico。他称格雷厄姆在当时各种高调又便宜的公司里选中了Geico进行投资,买入了一个被低估的绝佳公司,这个方法就是伯克希尔所遵循的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特随即称,这说明在有需要的时候要果断行动,如果做出了一两个正确的决定就胜利了,需要在很多愚蠢的事情中找出正确的那一个。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:33 伯克希尔曾将台积电的股份快买快卖,在几个月里为什么突然想要卖出50亿美元持股的八成?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称中国台湾台积电是全球管理最好的最重要的企业之一,对于芯片公司来讲,我们觉得这个公司还是有领导地位的。这个公司很棒,里边的人员非凡。如果在美国找不到合适的资产,我们就去其它地方配置。我们配置的资产,在日本和中国台湾所配置的,都是非常好的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:24 对现在美中之间的互联网公司估值的问题,一些中国科技公司做到了美国企业做不到的,怎么看?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特和芒格都认为,中美关系紧张对两国会造成不必要的伤害。芒格说,美国和中国发生冲突是很愚蠢的。我们应该做的就是和中国和睦相处。美国应该与中国大量开展自由贸易。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,中美会有竞争,但一直都需要判断,如果没有对方回应,事情能有多大进步。两国都会有竞争力,都可以繁荣发展。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:19 苹果目前占据伯克希尔35%的持仓比例,接近危险区间的上限,如何评价?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,苹果没有到我们投资的35%,在苹果的持股是5.6%,但是对我们营业利润的贡献是巨大的。苹果主要是股票回购,我们不能拥有超过20%的苹果,也没有特别增持,就是回购之后流通股数减少了而已,看着我们的持股比例更高了。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">伯克希尔有很多业务,持有苹果有很大的优势,他们不断回购自己的股票,都不需要我们做什么,持股价值就在上升。苹果所处的行业和其它许多公司不同,苹果是比我们自己子公司更好的公司之一。我们的铁路业务已经很好了,但还赶不上苹果的业务优质程度。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,苹果是非常好的业务,利润率很高,用户忠诚度很高,与消费者关系密切。两年前伯克希尔处于税务考量卖过一些苹果股票,这个决定是愚蠢的。好机会不容易被识别出来。我们希望拥有好的企业,我们也希望拥有充足的流动性。除此之外,没有极限。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">苹果对消费者的定位是,他们愿意为一部手机支付1500美元或任何价格。同样的人为拥有第二辆车支付35,000美元,如果他们不得不放弃第二辆车或放弃他们的iPhone,他们会放弃他们的第二辆车。我的意思是,这是一款非凡的产品。如此好的东西,我们没有任何一个是拥有100%股权的,但我们非常非常高兴拥有5.6%的股权,任何上升0.1%的持股我们都感到高兴。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:07 企业需要建立好产品同时拥有竞争力,在短期利润和建立长期护城河之间,如何做出选择?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,掌控你的命运。没有任何来自华尔街的压力,没有投资者会议。他还表示,将持续寻找在日本的投资机会,对上个月增持股份的五家日本商社感到“惊喜”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特于2020年8月90岁生日时首次入股这些公司,后者类似于企业集团,包括三菱商事(Mitsubishi Corp)、三井(Mitsui)、伊藤忠商事(Itochu Corp)、丸红(Marubeni)和住友商事(Sumitomo)。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,它们作为一个整体大概给能伯克希尔的收购带来14%的收益,它们还支付可观的股息,有时还回购股票。同时,伯克希尔可以通过日元融资消除货币风险,那样成本只有0.5%。上月巴菲特透露伯克希尔增持了五大商社的股份。巴菲特这次说,现在持有这些商社7.4%的股份,如果他们没有同意,就不会持股超过9%。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,伯克希尔是日本以外最大的企业借款人(即企业日元债务发行人),在发行日元债券方面还会继续下去。伯克希尔在那里有一些直接业务,我们有一些非常棒的合作伙伴为我们工作。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,他想把CEO接班人阿贝尔介绍给日本商社的高管,是因为认识到伯克希尔会在日本继续进行投资和建立关系。巴菲特预计,今后一些年,在日本的投资会让伯克希尔持续增值。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">11:02 再保险行业在过去15年回报率很高但竞争激烈,伯克希尔在财产损失险领域似乎没有分配更多的资金去运作,能否再解释一下去年完成收购的Allegany公司?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">负责保险业务的副董事长贾恩称,Allegany的重点业务就是再保险行业,在收购后伯克希尔不会对其管理层和经营策略进行任何调整,之前该公司很成功,希望未来也很成功。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在财产损害险方面,过去十年的定价不是很有优势,希望今年可以配置更多的资本来取得有吸引力的回报。伯克希尔目前的财产损害保险的投资组合已经很大了,正在以承保的上限运行,利润率也很健康,但投资组合非常不平衡,比如佛罗里达州如果再出现飓风可能会产生不成比例很大的亏损,甚至会损失150亿美元,相当于整个组合的利润,但目前情况比以前好多了。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">10:52 能否分享我们还没有听过的故事,描述伯克希尔两位副董事长的性格和作为领导者的才能?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,负责保险业务的贾恩1986年来到我的办公室。他是个好人,用传统方式运行公司,运行方式足够优质,他没有尝试改变体系,他一直在改善体系。他当时在保险上经验为零,但他经历了美国企业的各种运行方式。跟他聊天时候我就决定要雇用他,给了他一些启动资金,让他可以投入市场,有所作为。贾恩的地位无可取代,现在是全球十大最厉害保险经理人之一。看简历时候我从来不看他从哪个学校毕业的,不过他刚好是上了非常好的大学。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">10:38 日本投资者问巴菲特,你说过不要跟美国下赌注。美国在以后的未来还是否会保持现在的坚实情况,还是有自己的风险?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特:这中间有很多的测试。我和芒格活了整个国家的差不多一半历史了。美国有25%的GDP。美国有两大洋在附近。加拿大和墨西哥是邻国。美国是全世界可以生活最好的地方。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">美国现在面临的挑战情况非常大。希望全世界能够整合在一起,可以良好的整合。必须重新理清,民主到底是什么,要从哪条路进行下去。但不管怎么样,现在全世界都比以前好很多了。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格说,我没有像巴菲特那么乐观,我们要有更少的期望值,现在对我们的文化有了很多威胁。我看到的基金经理,我真的不喜欢他们的所作所为,我不想任何人进入这个行业。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">10:26 更多人开始关注环境保护,新能源行业被政府鼓励,新能源方面的开发是有什么前景?你如何看待新能源行业的未来发展?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">因为伯克希尔买下MidAmerican而加入该公司的副董事长阿贝尔表示,全球都在进行能源转型,原本希望美国至少有个统一的发展方案,但现在不得不根据每个州的不同规则去制定计划。在美国拥有三家公用事业公司的伯克希尔希望,到2030年在2005年的基础上减少50%的碳足迹。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">他希望未来十年争取取得更大成就来配合能源转型,“但这会是一个漫长的过程。最终更加取决于技术的发展。”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,美国政府在解决气候变化问题上不是很有成效,主要因为和平年代政府无法强制扭转企业的发展方向,在需要50个州配合的情况下就更难了,因为政府无法规定资本的流向,在能源转型方面美国的工业产能导向并没有一个统一的目标和方案,所以美国的进展非常慢。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">10:21 现在铁路脱轨受到批评,BNSF也受到监管</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,现在团队正在处理BNSF的问题,在印第安居留地的运输上达成了协议,每天运输多少辆车经过土地。吸取了教训,做出了承诺,要尊重签署的协议,减轻事故带来的影响。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在铁路行业,脱轨是产业中总会出现的情况。火车出轨在每年整个产业有超过1000起。我们有非常重的载重火车。有时候,非常轻微的错误都会导致严重的错误。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">铁路建设不是容易的事情。我们火车设计是停留在19世纪末的水平。在10-20年时间还会有这样的情况出现。对于一些有挥发性的危险物质要谨慎。但我们作为全美大型公司,有时候不得不这样做。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">10:13 有关遗产继承计划</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说他见过很多大富之家争吵。在我家里,除非我的三个孩子能阅读、理解、并且能对遗嘱给出建议,否则我不会在遗嘱上签字。芒格谈到遗产规划时说,只要持有股票而已。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">关于伯克希尔的下一代继承人,巴菲特说,现在就说谁会接替Abel和Jain目前担任的职位都是不明智的,因为很多事都可能发生变化。芒格说,伯克希尔的子公司里涌现了很多优秀的人才。伯克希尔更换经理的频率低于其他公司,这是一个优势。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">10:00 AI怎么影响价值投资?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,价值投资的机会来自于其他人做了“愚蠢又错误的决定”。芒格称,价值投资者在当下应该习惯接受收益更少了,因为竞争更为激烈,“聪明人们都在尝试以智取胜、战胜别人”。不过这些相互碾压的行为在价值投资者不必进入的领域存在。芒格认为,“世界过于短视了”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">9:56 芒格曾对媒体称美国商业地产有风暴临近,美国银行业会有很多相关的坏账,哪个领域和地理分区会更差?伯克希尔如何看待商业地产和相关贷款?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格表示,不认为商业地产潜在的风暴会对伯克希尔产生很大影响,因为伯克希尔在商业地产领域并不活跃。自己是从做房地产起家的,“房地产很难做,我更喜欢伯克希尔现在做的事情。” 他称,美国和世界其他地方的城市“中心空心化”将非常严重且令人不快。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,商业地产的那些楼房不会走,但是拥有者会轮替,往往最终提供借款的人成为获得房产的人。他认为如何决定一栋楼的价值,其实是要看拥有者能无追索权地借到多少钱。他认为, “我们开始看到商业地产领域在高借贷利率时期的后果”,之前有过度借贷的倾向,现在借贷困难。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">9:53 人工智能带来更多负面还是更多积极影响,尤其是对股市和社会整体来说,有没任何产业或公司会受到影响?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">芒格表示,如果你去中国比亚迪工厂,你会看到机器人到处都是。机器人使用将会在全球越来越多。我自己对其中的炒作,特别是涉及到人工智能的炒作感到困惑,“我觉得老式智能(old fashioned intelligence)比人工智能更有效”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特称,虽然他也预计人工智能将“改变世界上的一切”,但认为它不会超越人类智能。人工智能中没有任何一个功能可以取代伯克希尔副董事长Ajit。比尔·盖茨之前带我去看他们最新的技术,比我想象中进步快多了:</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“AI确实可以做非常多事情。这让我有一点担忧,因为我们没有办法掌控它。我们发明AI的初衷是好的。在未来我们没有选择,要接受它。AI可以改变全球面貌,但是改变不了我们的想法和行为。”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">9:42 车险企业Geico和伯灵顿北方圣太菲铁路运输公司(BNSF)去年失去了很多市场份额给竞争对手,竞争挑战和如何应对的公司策略?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">伯克希尔负责保险业务的副董事长阿吉特·贾恩(Ajit Jain)表示,Geico正在“不畏艰险” 以改进远程信息处理(telematics),该技术将允许保险公司收集客户的驾驶数据,包括行使里程和驾驶速度,以帮助车险定价政策。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">Ajit称,Geico已经在快速收窄与竞争对手(主要是Progressive)在此技术上的差距,90%的新业务都会提供远程信息处理的选项,但是只有不到一半的客户愿意采用。他坦言,“技术提升需要的程度比我预期要大,是很大的挑战,技术改进还有漫长的路要走”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">他特别提到,汽车保险公司Geico在2022年遭受了19 亿美元的税前承保亏损,但今年一季度实现了7亿美元的巨额承保利润,已经是一种进步,不过,其中有两个和以往不同的因素影响。Geico释放了去年的准备金,而且,一季度通常是一年中表现不错的,是季节性的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">他估计,Geico 的综合比率最终将“略低于”100。他说,目标是达到 96 的综合比率,但那将导致保单持有人流失。 (综合比率跟踪保险公司每赚一美元的费用损失多少。)</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">伯克希尔负责非保险业务的副董事长格雷格·阿贝尔(Greg Abel)表示,BNSF铁路业务还有很多提升要做,例如在精确调度铁路方面(precision schedule railroading),伯克希尔管理层密切关注运营指标,每天都争取更有效率。去年该公司也取得了很大进展,但去年是“以安全的方式重启之年”,需要面对疫情引发的供应链困扰、港口困难和人员短缺,有信心长期会有非凡的成果。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特指出,过去十年,保险业成立了许多上市公司。但没有一家想让人拥有。那些公司自称是科技公司,可即便如此,他们仍然需要让利率与风险相匹配。一切公司都是用科技的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特说,过去十年,只有一家保险公司取得了压倒性的成功,那就是伯克希尔旗下的保险公司Berkshire Hathaway Specialty Insurance。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">9:38 投资时候是否会被情绪控制?在决策时怎么在保守和激进种做取舍?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,我们也做过错误的投资决定,但不记得做过情绪化决策。芒格表示,希望能做理智的,没有情绪化的决定,特别是在做投资人和业务方面的决策。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">9:37 如果硅谷银行里超过25万美元存款保险上限的存款没有得到保障,对美国经济影响几何?</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特坦言那将是灾难性的,所以政府机构、国会和监管机构没有犹豫来救市,令所有存款都得到了保障。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特谈到FDIC已有25万美元的存款保险上限。他说,法规就是这样说的,但那不是美国会采取的行为方式。美国政府不会只保护最多25万美元的存款,就像政府不会让债务上限导致违约。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">9:20 解释伯克希尔一季度财报</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">保险业务的承保利润和投资收益均同比显著提升,BNSF铁路业务和能源业务的税后经营利润均同比下滑。归入“其他受控业务”和“非受控业务”的运营业绩较上年同期略有增加。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特提到,“环境和六个月前截然不同”,以及库存过多的情况。他称伯克希尔的投资收益目前不错, 保险承保的业务和市场活动无关,和地震等自然灾害的关系更大。今年承保可能比去年做得好。保险业务不受商业周期影响。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特坦言,经济“令人难以置信增长的时期”正在结束,预计伯克希尔旗下“大部分”企业可能会报告较低的收益,“没有什么是确定的”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">9:15 开场白</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">巴菲特表示,这次打算至少回答60个问题,他戏称查理·芒格为“伯克希尔的查尔斯国王(King Charles)”,赢得了在场掌声。巴菲特还介绍了伯克希尔的非保险业务副主席格雷格阿贝尔Greg Abel和保险业务副主席阿吉特贾恩Ajit Jain。</span></span></div><div><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br /></span></span></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-18262107402457161622023-03-01T05:40:00.007-08:002023-03-01T05:41:12.604-08:00【转载】2023 中国内地去香港办理银行卡,香港永隆银行开户(保姆级)<p> </p><header class="entry-header" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><div class="comments-link" style="border: 0px; color: #757575; font-size: 0.928571rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px 0px; padding: 0px; text-align: left; vertical-align: baseline;">作者:老郭种树</div></header><div class="entry-content" style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #444444; font-family: "Open Sans", Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">今天去香港办理香港银行卡(招商永隆),尽管做了很多攻略,但还是碰到了各种意外,希望我以下分享,能帮你减少一点意外,跳过一些坑。这篇文章包含港澳通行证、入境路线和准备、香港出行和交通、香港银行的选择、办理条件、开户过程等等。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4371" decoding="async" height="903" sizes="(max-width: 1012px) 100vw, 1012px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230228210835901.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230228210835901.png 1012w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230228210835901-768x685.png 768w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230228210835901-624x557.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="1012" /></p><h3 style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-size: 1.14286rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">港澳通行证</h3><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">还是从港澳通行证开始,港澳通行证有效期十年到二十年,如果你之前办理过港澳通行证,那基本还没过期。但这不代表可以马上去香港,因为<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">签注会过期</strong>。我们经常说的通行证过期,其实都是指签注过期。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4372" decoding="async" height="452" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 762px) 100vw, 762px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230228213522784.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230228213522784.png 762w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230228213522784-624x370.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="762" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">港澳通行证的背面包含签注的所有信息,来往城市,是香港签注还是澳门,签注种类和有效期。如果你不知道自己的签注过期没,看你通行证背面有效期就行了。<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果签注续期,这背面显示的内容会重新印刷更新</strong>。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">再来看签注续签,大部分首次办理港澳通行证时,都会购买首次签注,这个过程需要人工预约办理。但当你的第一次签注过期,再次想续签时,直接去出入境移民局,找自动签注机器自动续签就行了,不用预约不用找人工,周六周末也可以续签,<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">非深户也可以这样操作</strong>。所以,理论上说,只要你手上有通行证,都符合这条规则,别傻傻去深圳公安上填资料预约(这个坑我踩过)。</p><h3 style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-size: 1.14286rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如何去香港</h3><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">去香港的路线有很多,分享两种我知道的,而且也是主流方案,坐高铁去香港或者“步行”去。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">有高铁可以从内地开往香港,它途径的站点是广州南站-庆盛站-虎门站-光明城站-深圳北站-福田站-西九龙站,你可以在这线路前面的任意站点上车,终点站都是香港西九龙站,就和我们乘坐其他高铁是一样的,一样在 12306 买票。所以,<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果你不是深圳的,坐高铁过去是最方便的</strong>。比如武汉买到深圳北,然后深圳北换乘到这条线路,其他省市同理。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果你是在深圳,并且靠近福田区,还可以选择搭地铁到福田口岸,然后从福田口岸地铁站出来,步行过河去香港,只要跨过深圳河就到香港新界落马洲。但这条路线到达香港的位置和坐地铁到达位置不一样,这里我就踩坑了,后面说。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">当然,这两个路线都需要入境过两道安检,过安检就需要用到港澳通行证,为了照顾像我这样的新手,这里我再多分享点细节。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">中国和香港的关系是一国两制,所以去香港入境,也有<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">两道安检</strong>,中国、香港各有一道,按照“一地两检”模式进行出入境查验。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">出入境安检主要用到港澳通行证和指纹</strong>,又因为要检查两次,所以入境安检步骤是先用港澳通行证,过了闸机,再按指纹,走一两分钟,再使用通行证,再按指纹,身份证反而是最后出站时用的。离开香港是相反,先用身份证进站,后面经过两道安检。</p><h3 style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-size: 1.14286rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">香港银行</h3><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">我之前办了很多外币信用卡,但唯独很重要的香港银行卡迟迟没有办。因为我的 Adsense 是港区账号,需要一张香港银行卡来收款。虽然已经用 PingPong 解决了收款的问题,但总觉得差了点意思。加上要做港区礼品卡小生意,没香港银行卡还真不行,所以这次特意花时间去办。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4370" decoding="async" height="1706" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230120130235021.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230120130235021.png 1280w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230120130235021-768x1024.png 768w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230120130235021-1152x1536.png 1152w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230120130235021-624x832.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="1280" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">国内办的比较多的香港银行卡大致有:汇丰、渣打、中国银行(香港)、中信银行(香港)、招商永隆、工亚。像淘宝中介推的也是这些。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果你愿意拿 50 万去开户,买 3 个月理财产品,我觉得不用折腾,直接找汇丰内地见证开户。如果凑 50 万有压力,或者对汇丰没特殊情结,剩下的这些银行都可以考虑,他们的办理条件和门槛,都差不多。也都是正儿八经的香港银行,该有的功能、地位和汇丰也是一样,可能有人觉得这些银行和国内银行有千丝万缕关系,担心监管问题。我是这样想的,随手 50 万都拿不出,没必要担心监管问题,有这个担心就直接上汇丰了,也不会有这个纠结。</p><blockquote style="border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 1.71429rem; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果用一段时间你就会知道,办哪个银行卡真的不重要,重要的是人民币如何出去,如何转到香港银行卡,太难了</p></blockquote><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">依照这个原则,我的态度是哪个容易办下来,就办哪个,紧接着看看管理费、资产费、转账手续费。这些银行都是 0 资产开户,但能不能顺利办下来还要看实际情况。<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这个实际情况就看你办理香港银行卡的原因</strong>,这也是银行客服必问的问题,目前来说缴纳香港保险费、收工资是比较容易审核通过的。但前者需要提供保单,后者要公司 Offer。</p><blockquote style="border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 1.71429rem; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">现在很多中介提供的渠道就是用香港公司给你发 Offer</p></blockquote><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">上面俩条件比较苛刻,达不到只能说投资理财,这审核通过率就低很多了。特别像渣打,如果回复办卡原因是投资理财,后面工作人员会问一堆相关问题,如果你真有投资理财经历和实证倒还好,没有的话可能会审核失败。<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这个成功率只能看运气,根据网上案例,中银香港和招商永隆,审核率是比渣打高</strong>。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">我是回复投资理财,结果看了我雪球帐户,还把截图要去了,这个后面说。</p><h3 style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-size: 1.14286rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">入境准备</h3><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">八达通</strong>,一定要准备张八达通,你可以在淘宝事先买好,也可以下载旅客八达通 App,然后开通电子八达通,它的优势是可以 将 50 港币押金退还,但我没弄过,这里没经验,推荐你们自己搜索。还可以在入境时地铁站(西九龙柯士甸)用国内银行卡在中国银行 ATM 取港币,用港币买八达通,取钱会收取几块钱手续费。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">八达通可以坐地铁、巴士,可以购物吃东西,普及率非常非常高,我自己没带一点港币,也没买八达通,在这吃了大亏,血淋淋教训,这里千万注意。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">开通漫游</strong>,先给自己手机号开通国际漫游,不清楚自己手机是否开通的,关注运营商公众号,然后发送 漫游 关键字,检查一下。开通漫游后去手机设置里将手机 SIM 卡的<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">漫游开关</strong>打开。最后就是<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">买漫游流量包</strong>,可以在支付宝(境外上网)买,也可以在微信(出境流量包)买。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4381" decoding="async" height="558" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2919.jpg" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2919.jpg 750w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2919-624x464.jpg 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="750" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4383" decoding="async" height="557" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2951.jpg" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2951.jpg 750w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2951-624x463.jpg 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="750" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">充电宝和口罩</strong>,3 月香港宣布解除口罩令,按道理地铁公交、室内外都不用戴口罩,但最好备一个。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">港币</strong>,我在国内没换港币,带了国内银行卡去那边 ATM 取的,但也不是很方便,然后我取了 3000 港币,收了 12 块手续费,大概是这样。我还是建议各位国内多换点港币过去,然后在地铁站买一张八达通,剩下全存香港银行卡。因为回来后,再想将人民币转到香港银行卡真的挺难的,而且手续费特别高。</p><blockquote style="border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 1.71429rem; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">转账汇款后面说</p></blockquote><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">地图</strong>,这个事我在朋友圈吐槽过,百度地图和苹果地图都不太好用,我是两个搭着用的,建议再下载谷歌地图,听说它会好很多。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">还有个事要提一嘴,微信和支付宝都能在香港坐地铁,但不能坐巴士,考虑到上面必备八达通,八达通本身就能坐地铁,所以这个乘车码就没必要开通了(下图 CSL 就是在香港用流量包后显示的运营商名字)。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4382" decoding="async" height="579" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 731px) 100vw, 731px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2921.jpg" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2921.jpg 731w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2921-624x494.jpg 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="731" /></p><h3 style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-size: 1.14286rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">准备材料</h3><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这些银行要求的材料大差不差,内地身份证、港澳通行证、入境小白条、水电缴费账单或者信用卡对账单(近三个月)。这个账单不是必须的,<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">但如果你身份证上地址和你目前居住地址(通讯地址)不一致</strong>,就需要这个账单上地址来辅助证明。我用的是招商信用卡对账单地址,上面有名字和目前居住地址。</p><blockquote style="border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 1.71429rem; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">招商信用卡对账单获取步骤:掌上生活 App – 查账还款 – 账单服务 – 电子账单补寄,申请后就会发账单邮件到邮箱,然后打印出来即可。</p></blockquote><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">你目前的<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">居住地址(通讯地址)</strong>,大部分情况是没啥用的,我申请时客服也随口说,不会真的给我寄东西。但这里就会有一个问题,如果你信用卡上地址也不是你目前居住地址怎么办呢?这种情况很常见,打工人搬一两次家,信用卡上地址早就不是目前居住地了。当然你可以修改信用卡上地址,然后下个月申请账单,再去办银行卡,或者填之前地址,收到快递后,让快递员<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">转寄</strong>。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这里就有个小窍门,如果是现场发卡的银行,比如招商永隆,审核通过直接给实体银行卡,你就将所有地址都填身份证上地址,这样就不用辅助证明,不用提供账单,少很多麻烦事。所以你可以先查清楚,要办理的银行卡是不是审核成功现场给实体卡的。如果不是,比如银行卡会以邮寄的方式给你,那这个地址就要好好搞清楚。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">当然,以防万一,这个账单地址都可以准备好带过去,我带过去了,但没用到。</p><h3 style="border: 0px; clear: both; font-size: 1.14286rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">招商永隆开户过程</h3><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">首先在招商永隆 App 上预约,必须要预约才能去办,接下来我会将预约填资料一些注意点列出来。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4378" decoding="async" height="788" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_9BF98EE1C05F-1.jpeg" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_9BF98EE1C05F-1.jpeg 750w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_9BF98EE1C05F-1-624x656.jpeg 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="750" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">是不是现有客户,如果你是初次办理,选择<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">否</strong>。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4379" decoding="async" height="1334" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2885.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2885.png 750w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2885-624x1110.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="750" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">预约网点和时间,这里是最值得说道的。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4380" decoding="async" height="1334" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2888.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2888.png 750w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/IMG_2888-624x1110.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="750" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果是节假日办理,千万别凑着市中心分行办理,往偏点区域走。搭一两站地铁也是搭,还不如多坐几站,往人少地方去。猜测这些银行都有业务量,城市中心网点办理的人太多,要排队不说,还可能导致要求更高,通过率不高。<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这个逻辑不仅对招商永隆有效,其他银行也可以参考</strong>。很多人一下高铁,就在地图搜附近网点,导致办卡人非常多,然后高铁站西九龙附近又属于市中心,更是堵上加堵。办一张卡要 30 – 40 分钟,有这个时间,坐地铁早到其他区了。所以<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">建议多看看新界的这些区的网点</strong>。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4373" decoding="async" height="372" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 1398px) 100vw, 1398px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301164503111.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301164503111.png 1398w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301164503111-768x204.png 768w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301164503111-624x166.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="1398" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">预约成功后,他们对资料初审,会收到银行的电话,号码有点像垃圾电话,记得接。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">接着就是去香港,到达网点先去<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">取号</strong>。我是预约 10 点,然后 9.10 到达,等到 10 点才开始<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">叫号办理</strong>。坐下去将身份证、通行证、小白条拿出来交给她。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">问我办卡原因,我回复投资理财后,问我有没有投资账户,就给她看了雪球账户。然后让我将雪球截图用邮件发给她(我也没想到会问这个,还好我买的基金没有卖…)。接着她将我的资料交过去审核,等了十来分钟就通知我银行卡办下来了。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">然后就是登录招商永隆 App,这个登录名和密码都是预约时已经设置过的,登录后将银行卡添加到账户,做问卷调查。这些都不用担心,她都会教你,按部就班来就行。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">接下来她让我现场给银行卡存入 1000 港币,但我身上没带港币,她推荐我去外面换港币再回来存。这就是一个<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">信任问题</strong>,因为这时候银行卡已经给到我手上,并且已经激活,我完全可以不回来存款。但我建议还是按照她的要求来,别做损害信任的事,<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">前人砍树,后人遭殃</strong>。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">我在门口招商永隆 ATM 取了 3000 港币,再去银行取号存到香港银行卡。然后把存款收据单给她看了一眼就撤了,整个过程大概花了 1 个小时,其实我拿到卡只要了半小时,剩下时间全是在解决转账。这些银行工作人员服务态度特别好,也是用普通话交流的,尽管普通话不太标准,也是兼容我的。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">假如审核失败,没有申请下来,不要怕,这是正常现象,再去其他网点、其他银行尝试,除了永隆,像中银香港、中信香港、渣打都是可以现场预约的。我走了一圈,发现香港银行非常,走几步就是一个网点。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">管理费</strong>,招商永隆分为三种客户类型(见上面图片),也就是三种卡类别,一般普通客户(1 万港币)、金葵花客户(50 万港币)、私人银行客户(500 万港币)。很明显,我们大部分开的都是一般普通客户卡片(后面简称普卡)。但根据资料,普卡个人账户存款低于 1 万港币,每个月会收取 100 港币管理费。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4374" decoding="async" height="416" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 1486px) 100vw, 1486px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301175057945.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301175057945.png 1486w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301175057945-768x215.png 768w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301175057945-624x175.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="1486" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">有什么办法豁免没?资料也说了,这些情况可以豁免。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4375" decoding="async" height="1082" loading="lazy" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301175214758.png" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="396" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">大部分情况我们都达不到豁免要求,除了这条:</p><blockquote style="border: 0px; font-style: italic; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 1.71429rem; quotes: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">持有下列任何账户 之客户,有关账户 结余/结欠不可为 零 ; – 证券或「月月 SAVE」股票储 蓄计划 ;</p></blockquote><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">只要我们证券账户结余不为零,就能免收管理费,意思只要我们持有港股就行了,不管多少港股,那如果你想减免管理费,买一手最便宜的股票就行了。前提是你将银行卡证券账号开通,预约时可以选择开通。然后开通证券账户,会收一个证券管理费,一年 120 港币。或者你也可以多带点港币过去,存入 1 万港币。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">转账</strong>,我在网点为这事花了不少时间,我前面查了资料,招商永隆有个<a href="https://www.cmbwinglungbank.com/wlb_corporate/cn/about-us/service-guide/hot-questions/re/remittance/cny-rtgs.html" style="border: 0px; color: #21759b; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">汇款快线服务</a>,它是指将美元、港币、欧元与内地招商银行之间互相转账汇款。从内地招商银行汇款至招商永隆只要 10 港币手续费。从招商永隆网上银行汇款到内地招商银行只要 80 港币。因为我主力用招商银行,也有内地招商金葵花,就是冲着这个汇款快线服务才想办招商永隆的。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4376" decoding="async" height="814" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 1178px) 100vw, 1178px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301200804257.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301200804257.png 1178w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301200804257-768x531.png 768w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301200804257-624x431.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="1178" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">将银行卡办下来后,我就准备从国内招商往招商永隆转账,结果完全不是这回事。我先在招商银行 App 中购买外汇,用人民币买港币。再将港币转到香港银行卡,转了 1200 港币,收了 100 块手续费和 150 块电报费。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><img alt="" class="alignnone size-full wp-image-4377" decoding="async" height="1334" loading="lazy" sizes="(max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" src="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301201212836.png" srcset="https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301201212836.png 750w, https://guozh.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/image-20230301201212836-624x1110.png 624w" style="border-radius: 3px; border: 0px; box-shadow: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.2) 0px 1px 4px; height: auto; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" width="750" /></p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">所以这事我有点搞不懂,很多人都说招商银行和招商永隆之间同名账户转账 0 手续费,中国银行和中国银行香港同名账号转账 0 手续费,我觉得是不是他们没去实践,人云亦云。当然,<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">这个事欢迎打脸指正</strong>。现在这外汇管制多严格,怎么会还有这么好的事。境外转账查的非常严,而且每个人每年只有 5 万美金额度,人民币很难出去。用数字货币是个方案,但又担心收到<strong style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">黑钱</strong>,挺难的。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">如果人民币转到到香港银行卡要这么高手续费,这个问题解决不了,除去留学交学费,那很多人办的境外银行卡可能作用不大,只是吃灰,所以,建议各位先衡量下自己需求和办卡成本。搞外贸之类收款,赚美元当然可以办一张。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">准备再多,做再多攻略,还是可能会碰到意外和惊喜,这是正常的,最好还是多留点时间,不要把时间卡太死。OK,希望以上可以帮到你。</p><p style="border: 0px; line-height: 1.71429; margin: 0px 0px 1.71429rem; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">本文由<a href="https://guozh.net/" style="border: 0px; color: #21759b; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">老郭种树</a>原创,转载请注明:<a href="https://guozh.net/apply-for-a-hong-kong-bank-card/" style="border: 0px; color: #21759b; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank" title="2023 中国内地去香港办理银行卡,香港永隆银行开户(保姆级)">https://guozh.net/apply-for-a-hong-kong-bank-card/</a></p><div class="related-posts" style="border: 0px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;"><h3 class="widget-title" style="border: 0px; clear: both; color: #636363; font-size: 1.14286rem; line-height: 1.84615; margin: 1.71429rem 0px; padding: 0px; text-transform: uppercase; vertical-align: baseline;"><br /></h3></div></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-510477391409034432023-02-19T19:09:00.003-08:002023-02-19T19:09:43.300-08:00如何保护女人的人身安全和改善女人的生存处境<p> 作者:<a class="ALink_default_2ibt1" data-image="false" href="https://weibo.com/u/1746958511" style="-webkit-box-decoration-break: clone !important; background-image: none !important; border-bottom: 1px solid var(--text-color) !important; border-left-width: 0px !important; border-radius: 0px !important; border-right-width: 0px !important; border-top-width: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; letter-spacing: 0.16px; margin: -0.05em -0.1em; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding: 0.05em 0.1em; position: relative !important; text-decoration-line: none !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">@玲玲<span class="bionic-b" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-weight: bolder; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">Pet</span>er和四只猫</span></a> </p><p>https://weibo.com/u/1746958511</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6-Dwb3nIDaAgghpAndQepytMbBIWdORigLzyS-QzxwONLF5evoMTKsQTcLKaPX7WkYUGajwDqXagATZA2dtWtgg7DN3l1oA9AX3ZpwLBXTTGzoB5Nv3ziNJ4K-S1UYwEuVtCMgqDmq4H3rbMnL5oSV14ApZH5cRp0CCXdGTP2LYc1_N9y8GWIqBS8eg/s280/images.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="180" data-original-width="280" height="275" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6-Dwb3nIDaAgghpAndQepytMbBIWdORigLzyS-QzxwONLF5evoMTKsQTcLKaPX7WkYUGajwDqXagATZA2dtWtgg7DN3l1oA9AX3ZpwLBXTTGzoB5Nv3ziNJ4K-S1UYwEuVtCMgqDmq4H3rbMnL5oSV14ApZH5cRp0CCXdGTP2LYc1_N9y8GWIqBS8eg/w428-h275/images.jpg" width="428" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><div class="detail_wbtext_4CRf9" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; letter-spacing: 0.16px; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我看不到有任何迹象显示有什么有效的方法来保护女人的人身安全和改善女人的生存处境,只能再次呼吁各位父母(尤其出身社会底层的父母),女孩自己,包括爱自己姐妹的哥哥弟弟们,先请去看一下我的那篇《我们为什么要做泼妇?》</span></div><div class="detail_wbtext_4CRf9" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; letter-spacing: 0.16px; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">然后请从思想上转变观念,给自己女儿,姐妹一条活路,即使是概率问题,也请不要拿你的女儿,你的姐妹的生命去做实验以身犯险。</span></div><div class="detail_wbtext_4CRf9" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; letter-spacing: 0.16px; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">第一条就是不要催婚,不要再把女儿当水泼出去了,去告诉你们的女儿,爸爸妈妈爱你,努力发展事业学技术提高能力强大自己才是正途,其他一切随缘,如果你们能够给女儿足够的安全感和爱,她就不会在两性关系里渴求男人的爱,走上社会就慌不择路丧失判断力从而踏进火坑。</span><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">如果是独生女就招个上门女婿,<span class="bionic-b" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-weight: bolder; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">8000万男人找不到老婆,供需完全不上是一个级别,你是市场上的的挑选方,如果没有合适的(脏乱差又懒又馋的无赖只会是累赘,沾上就会倒霉,如果是有暴力倾向的,全</span>家都会遭殃,由“婚恋”由头开始的女方被灭门的案例我相信各位也见过不少了),家里条件容许,女儿也愿意,就让女儿买精生子,哈佛大学智商150的精子也就4000美金左右,自己生跟自己家姓,一家三口自己养,叫自己爷爷奶奶,跟谷爱凌一样不香吗?</span></div><div class="detail_wbtext_4CRf9" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; letter-spacing: 0.16px; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">2)家里有兄弟的,如果你们顾及兄妹之情,爱姐姐妹妹,姐姐妹妹如果不想结婚跟你们生活在一起,留下来帮忙带孩子照顾父母何乐而不为?你只要给她一间屋子就可以了,或者在宅基地盖个平房。</span></div><div class="detail_wbtext_4CRf9" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; letter-spacing: 0.16px; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">3)以上是父母兄弟善待,自己不想结婚不被父母兄弟压榨不剥削的情况下,如果父母兄弟不是人,女孩你们是要积极自救的,认清“亲人”的嘴脸,他们只想吃你的肉喝你的血,切断幻想认清现实拯救自己于水火,断绝和原生家庭的一切联系,往大城市逃,去西餐厅端盘子,去跟身边的女性打交道,去向强大强势独当一面的女性靠拢,去努力建设自己的小姐妹社会关系,这个时候你身边会充满那些农村上来迫切想要找个女人泄欲和子宫传宗接代的捕猎者,请去提高警惕,杜绝一切非工作之外的交流(臭脸泼妇可以保护你),他们由于太过压抑,饥渴和迫切,你的礼貌,微笑很可能会被认为是某种暗示,包括其他工作场合的女性也要警惕,在自己没有社会资源和不够强大的环境里,去当臭脸泼妇!先稳下来,然后一步一个脚印寻找更好的机会,去给争取越来越好的生存环境。</span></div><div class="detail_wbtext_4CRf9" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; letter-spacing: 0.16px; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span class="bionic-b" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; float: none !important; font-weight: bolder; max-width: 100%; opacity: 1; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">4)家里有女儿的父母,请把孩子送去练习散打,拳击,摔跤,成年女性去练习拳击,去不断强大体能,没有人能够保护你,只有你自己!遇到纠缠不休</span>对自己生命有威胁的人,可以紧急避险,先下手为强,开水,油都是好东西,一只钢笔就可以戳穿对方眼球,牙齿和指甲都是可以保护你的,一只4.5个月的奶猫挣扎起来都可以撕咬抓自己的来犯者,你连一只猫都不如吗?除了被恐惧支配啊啊啊啊啊啊的叫,我们还可以做很多来保护自己的,宁见法官不见法医,女孩们,支棱起来吧!</span></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-62455154401997025582023-02-16T17:39:00.006-08:002023-02-19T19:16:14.902-08:00用旧手机做一个硬件冷钱包<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFotMtp1wQ8vqKHhMj1OFmdj2ITNvuFP1qC_ExA2NvpBsNPz1mH-hi9ol0Ha2ydtdOyh1rwG2l0FRt0kbkt5O13MxPnPZp3sapwmbFmB7LX6kmnSlvQlML0b1rbTmxMZkEVOI1O5mOATRtBAAxJiCxZi8uJtsr6-rev_R7Whymn887tDvhxt1W-aGtPQ/s276/images.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="183" data-original-width="276" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgFotMtp1wQ8vqKHhMj1OFmdj2ITNvuFP1qC_ExA2NvpBsNPz1mH-hi9ol0Ha2ydtdOyh1rwG2l0FRt0kbkt5O13MxPnPZp3sapwmbFmB7LX6kmnSlvQlML0b1rbTmxMZkEVOI1O5mOATRtBAAxJiCxZi8uJtsr6-rev_R7Whymn887tDvhxt1W-aGtPQ/w478-h317/images.png" width="478" /></a></div><br /><h1 class="title is-3 is-size-4-mobile" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #363636; font-family: Ubuntu, Roboto, "open sans", "microsoft yahei", sans-serif; font-size: 2rem; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.125; margin: 0px 0px 1.5rem; padding: 0px; word-break: break-word;"><br /></h1><div class="content" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Ubuntu, Roboto, "open sans", "microsoft yahei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.1rem; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; overflow-wrap: break-word;"><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;">对于一些人来说,可能会觉得交易所、热钱包不够安全,<a href="https://trezor.io/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Trezor</a>、<a href="https://www.ledger.com/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Ledger</a> 之类的硬件钱包又太贵,这时候就有一个折中方案:用一台旧手机作为永远离线的硬件钱包来使用。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;">需要以下这些:</p><ul style="box-sizing: inherit; list-style-image: initial; list-style-position: outside; margin: 1em 0px 1em 2em; padding: 0px;"><li style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">一台旧手机,这里称之为 iPhone A;</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">一台常用手机,这里称之为 iPhone B;</li><li style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0.25em 0px 0px; padding: 0px;">一个比特币 App:<a href="https://bluewallet.io/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">BlueWallet</a></li></ul><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;">首先,打开 iPhone A 上的「设置」→「通用」→「传输或还原 iPhone」→「<a href="https://support.apple.com/zh-cn/guide/personal-safety/ips4603248a8/web" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">抹掉所有内容和设置</a>」,然后进入引导页面设置成一个新设备。接着连接安全的 Wi-Fi,下载 BlueWallet,<span style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #363636; font-weight: 700;">这是 iPhone A 最后一次连接网络。</span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/13742.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/13742.webp" width="800" /></a></div><br /><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />取下 iPhone A 的 SIM 卡,打开飞行模式,关掉 Wi-Fi 和蓝牙。打开 BlueWallet 创建一个钱包,名称随意,把助记词用你认为安全的方式记下来(脑子记、纸记、助记词板等都行)。因为完全离线,钱包无法查询余额与交易,这时候需要另一台日常使用的手机作为观察账号来完成这些功能。</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/37812.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/37812.webp" width="800" /></a></div><br /><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />进入冷钱包账户,点击右上角,选择「展示钱包公钥(XPUB)」,这时候会出现一个二维码。用 iPhone B 打开 BlueWallet 选择导入钱包然后扫二维码,会得到一个灰色的观察钱包(<a href="https://bluewallet.io/watch-only" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Watch-only</a>),点击收款就可以看到比特币的收款地址。</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/25347.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/25347.webp" width="800" /></a></div><br /><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />这时候两个手机就设置好了,iPhone A (冷钱包)永远离线,不能查看余额与交易记录,但可以签名/验证信息(Sign/Verify Message)。iPhone B (观察钱包)在线联网,可以查看余额与交易记录,但交易时需要 iPhone A 的离线签名与验证。</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/13759.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/13759.webp" width="800" /></a></div><br /><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;"><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />在观察钱包内发送一笔比特币需得到冷钱包的签名,具体步骤为 iPhone B 发起一笔交易后会将金额、地址、手续费等打包成一个二维码,iPhone A 打开冷钱包 → 发送 → 签署一笔交易,扫描该二维码后批准交易。由于 iPhone A 冷钱包是全程离线的,它虽然批准了交易但没办法广播到网络,这时候又要回到 iPhone B 来操作。</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/24712.webp" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="474" data-original-width="800" height="474" src="https://un.zhfyi.net/ziz/24712.webp" width="800" /></a></div><br /><div align="center" style="box-sizing: inherit;"><br /></div><span style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: x-small;"><center style="box-sizing: inherit;">黄色框线内为 iPhone A 冷钱包上的操作</center></span><br style="box-sizing: inherit;" />iPhone A 批准交易后会出现一个二维码,用 iPhone B 再次扫描二维码后就交易成功了。<h2 id="FAQ" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #363636; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.125; margin: 1.1428em 0px 0.5714em; padding: 0px;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://zhfyi.com/post/28731/#FAQ" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" title="FAQ:"></a>FAQ:</h2><h3 id="可以制作其他币种的冷钱包吗?" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #363636; font-size: 1.25em; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.125; margin: 1.3333em 0px 0.6666em; padding: 0px;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://zhfyi.com/post/28731/#%E5%8F%AF%E4%BB%A5%E5%88%B6%E4%BD%9C%E5%85%B6%E4%BB%96%E5%B8%81%E7%A7%8D%E7%9A%84%E5%86%B7%E9%92%B1%E5%8C%85%E5%90%97%EF%BC%9F" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" title="可以制作其他币种的冷钱包吗?"></a>可以制作其他币种的冷钱包吗?</h3><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;">BlueWallet 只支持比特币及闪电网络,目前支持制作手机冷钱包的 APP 不多,支持的币种也基本上只有比特币跟以太坊。如果要制作以太坊冷钱包可以考虑 imToken,参考这个链接:<a href="https://support.token.im/hc/zh-cn/articles/360003147833-%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E8%A8%AD%E7%BD%AE-imToken-%E5%86%B7%E9%8C%A2%E5%8C%85-" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">如何设置 imToken 冷钱包?</a></p><h3 id="跟-Trezor、Ledger-等相比,安全性如何?" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #363636; font-size: 1.25em; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.125; margin: 1.3333em 0px 0.6666em; padding: 0px;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://zhfyi.com/post/28731/#%E8%B7%9F-Trezor%E3%80%81Ledger-%E7%AD%89%E7%9B%B8%E6%AF%94%EF%BC%8C%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%80%A7%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%EF%BC%9F" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" title="跟 Trezor、Ledger 等相比,安全性如何?"></a>跟 Trezor、Ledger 等相比,安全性如何?</h3><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px 0px 1em; padding: 0px;">个人认为是比不上专业的硬件钱包的,毕竟术业有专攻,但你可以加强手机冷钱包的安全性,比如设置一个复杂的锁屏密码,打开 Touch ID 或者 Face ID,在 BlueWallet 中使用 Touch ID 或 Face ID 来解锁。</p><h3 id="冷钱包在离线状态下生成的私钥是否安全,会不会跟他人重复?" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #363636; font-size: 1.25em; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.125; margin: 1.3333em 0px 0.6666em; padding: 0px;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://zhfyi.com/post/28731/#%E5%86%B7%E9%92%B1%E5%8C%85%E5%9C%A8%E7%A6%BB%E7%BA%BF%E7%8A%B6%E6%80%81%E4%B8%8B%E7%94%9F%E6%88%90%E7%9A%84%E7%A7%81%E9%92%A5%E6%98%AF%E5%90%A6%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%EF%BC%8C%E4%BC%9A%E4%B8%8D%E4%BC%9A%E8%B7%9F%E4%BB%96%E4%BA%BA%E9%87%8D%E5%A4%8D%EF%BC%9F" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" title="冷钱包在离线状态下生成的私钥是否安全,会不会跟他人重复?"></a>冷钱包在离线状态下生成的私钥是否安全,会不会跟他人重复?</h3><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">在成熟的加密钱包里,都用真随机数作为私钥,而随机数的生成算法已经非常专业,所以重复的几率基本上等于零。</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><br /></p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">原文来自:</p></div><div class="article-licensing box" style="background: rgb(245, 245, 245); border-radius: 4px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: inherit; color: #4a4a4a; font-family: Ubuntu, Roboto, "open sans", "microsoft yahei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 1.5rem; overflow: hidden; padding: 1.25rem; position: relative; z-index: 1;"><div class="licensing-title" style="box-sizing: inherit; line-height: 1.2; margin-bottom: 1rem;"><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin-bottom: 0.25rem !important; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; margin: 0px 0px 0.25rem; padding: 0px;">用旧手机做一个硬件冷钱包</p><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://zhfyi.com/post/28731/" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #7a7a7a; cursor: pointer; font-size: 0.85rem; text-decoration-line: none;">https://zhfyi.com/post/28731/</a></p></div><div class="licensing-meta level is-mobile" style="align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; justify-content: space-between;"><div class="level-left" style="align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; flex: 0 0 auto; justify-content: flex-start; max-width: 100%;"><div class="level-item is-narrow" style="align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; flex: 0 0 auto; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0.75rem;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit;"><h6 style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 0.85rem; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Author</h6><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">𝕫𝕙.𝕗𝕪𝕚</p></div></div><div class="level-item is-narrow" style="align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; flex: 0 0 auto; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0.75rem;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit;"><h6 style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 0.85rem; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Posted on</h6><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2023-02-15</p></div></div><div class="level-item is-narrow" style="align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; flex: 0 0 auto; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-right: 0.75rem;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit;"><h6 style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 0.85rem; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Updated on</h6><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">2023-02-15</p></div></div><div class="level-item is-narrow" style="align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: flex; flex: 0 0 auto; justify-content: center; margin-right: 1.5rem;"><div style="box-sizing: inherit;"><h6 style="box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 0.85rem; font-weight: 400; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">Licensed under</h6><p style="box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a class="icons" href="https://creativecommons.org/" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="Creative Commons"><span class="icon fab fa-creative-commons" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-flex; font-family: "Font Awesome 5 Brands"; font-size: 1.2em; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; height: 1.2em; justify-content: center; line-height: inherit; margin-left: 0.25rem; text-rendering: auto; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.2em;"></span></a><a class="icons" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="Noncommercial"><span class="icon fab fa-creative-commons-nc" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-flex; font-family: "Font Awesome 5 Brands"; font-size: 1.2em; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; height: 1.2em; justify-content: center; line-height: inherit; margin-left: 0.25rem; text-rendering: auto; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.2em;"></span></a><a class="icons" href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0" rel="noopener" style="box-sizing: inherit; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank" title="Attribution"><span class="icon fab fa-creative-commons-by" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; align-items: center; box-sizing: inherit; display: inline-flex; font-family: "Font Awesome 5 Brands"; font-size: 1.2em; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; height: 1.2em; justify-content: center; line-height: inherit; margin-left: 0.25rem; text-rendering: auto; vertical-align: bottom; width: 1.2em;"></span></a></p></div></div></div></div></div><div class="article-tags is-size-7 mb-4" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #7a7a7a; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-family: Ubuntu, Roboto, "open sans", "microsoft yahei", sans-serif; font-size: 0.85rem; margin-bottom: 1.5rem;"><span class="mr-2" style="box-sizing: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin-right: 0.5rem;">#</span><a class="link-muted mr-2" href="https://zhfyi.com/tags/%E5%86%B7%E9%92%B1%E5%8C%85/" rel="tag" style="box-sizing: inherit; cursor: pointer; margin-right: 0.5rem; text-decoration-line: none;">冷钱包</a><a class="link-muted mr-2" href="https://zhfyi.com/tags/%E6%AF%94%E7%89%B9%E5%B8%81/" rel="tag" style="box-sizing: inherit; cursor: pointer; margin-right: 0.5rem; text-decoration-line: none;">比特币</a><a class="link-muted mr-2" href="https://zhfyi.com/tags/%E7%A1%AC%E4%BB%B6%E9%92%B1%E5%8C%85/" rel="tag" style="box-sizing: inherit; color: #3273dc; cursor: pointer; margin-right: 0.5rem; text-decoration-line: none;">硬件钱包</a></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-42800761600069325892023-02-16T06:25:00.000-08:002023-02-16T06:25:26.113-08:00参与 Blur 空投,获利百万<p><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW1uqh6nSJxYuR9UkWaPkukXAGJYyyOScNM2JfXZLg-GsVMBwIjboa-loAwsBHUu9rYBy0PwdAqe0wQ6e-fmnFwbzHfqtHJfrvYvgPLlu4aaMFNI2AX8yRm0DG2lyHxcVfRlo6VwpBSjTsl48UUluE-bR6HjtBYpK3OCGc6FwXGjQvSECFhYVBJQy5DQ/s835/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20230216222400.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="512" data-original-width="835" height="380" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgW1uqh6nSJxYuR9UkWaPkukXAGJYyyOScNM2JfXZLg-GsVMBwIjboa-loAwsBHUu9rYBy0PwdAqe0wQ6e-fmnFwbzHfqtHJfrvYvgPLlu4aaMFNI2AX8yRm0DG2lyHxcVfRlo6VwpBSjTsl48UUluE-bR6HjtBYpK3OCGc6FwXGjQvSECFhYVBJQy5DQ/w620-h380/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20230216222400.png" width="620" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #122a38; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #122a38; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #122a38; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #122a38; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;">Blur0撸A7的技术向复盘</span></span></p><div class="flex flex-col gap-8" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; color: #122a38; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; gap: 2rem;"><h1 style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px;"><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">先说战绩:blur从12月底开始操作期间尝试了七八种策略,3阶段到手了9万多分,分布在差不多20个地址里。其中大部分成本为0,甚至在获得积分的基础上小有盈利,答应Freeblock的群友进行一下复盘总结,希望能给大家以后参与项目带来一些灵感。</span></div></h1><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">1.Eth交易在被打包之前会进入到内存池里供矿工挑选打包,通过监控内存池里等待处理的交易查看是否有自己的地址要被同意Offer,如果监听到有自己即将被扣钱的交易,那么以更高的Gas去抢跑把钱提出来,因为同意offer基本都会用小狐狸钱包里推荐的低gas,所以这部分没有什么难度 </span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-6" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 1.5rem;"><a class="flex justify-center items-center mb-1" href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC8J-akAErL_e?format=jpg&name=4096x4096" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; text-decoration-color: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; text-decoration-style: inherit; text-decoration-thickness: inherit;" target="_blank"><div class="w-full rounded-xl" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; aspect-ratio: 957 / 887; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 957px; width: 720px;"><img alt="" class="object-cover w-full rounded-xl" crossorigin="anonymous" height="100%" loading="lazy" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC8J-akAErL_e.jpg" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; object-fit: cover; vertical-align: middle; width: 720px;" width="100%" /></div></a></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">唯一可能亏损的点就是有部分交易通过隐私节点进行操作不进入内存池是监控不到的,还有就是如果nft暴跌的话,抢跑的gas有时候会非常离谱。这个方法在dc有人讨论之后我改成了避开猴地之类的slug进行bid </span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-6" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 1.5rem;"><a class="flex justify-center items-center mb-1" href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC9DTaUAEIeqX?format=jpg&name=4096x4096" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; text-decoration-color: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; text-decoration-style: inherit; text-decoration-thickness: inherit;" target="_blank"><div class="w-full rounded-xl" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; aspect-ratio: 764 / 352; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 764px; width: 720px;"><img alt="" class="object-cover w-full rounded-xl" crossorigin="anonymous" height="100%" loading="lazy" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC9DTaUAEIeqX.jpg" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; object-fit: cover; vertical-align: middle; width: 720px;" width="100%" /></div></a></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">2.对3小时内新上合集进行bid
因为Blur有Opensea标记保护,3小时内新上的Slug是不能交易的
所以可以无脑Bid,最后因为Opensea的版税改版,Blur上的新上合集有了标记,也不能Bid,再加上竞争激烈,到中期基本上比拼的就是bot的余额所以没有重点进行尝试这个策略 </span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-6" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 1.5rem;"><a class="flex justify-center items-center mb-1" href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC9tNaQAMbWF-?format=jpg&name=4096x4096" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; text-decoration-color: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; text-decoration-style: inherit; text-decoration-thickness: inherit;" target="_blank"><div class="w-full rounded-xl" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; aspect-ratio: 554 / 487; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 554px; width: 554px;"><img alt="" class="object-cover w-full rounded-xl" crossorigin="anonymous" height="100%" loading="lazy" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC9tNaQAMbWF-.jpg" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; object-fit: cover; vertical-align: middle; width: 554px;" width="100%" /></div></a></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">3.开始尝试一些不是无损但是盈亏比无限高的策略,也有一些复盘看来其实并不聪明的操作。尝假设使用blur的都是聪明人,赌blur的用户里笨蛋很少,或者没有笨蛋在gas狂飙的时候亏钱接受Bid,这时候基本上都是没有成交的,但是收益得到的积分实在是太低了,这个bot在跑了一天之后直接放弃</span></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">4. 多路径套利,顺序Bid,从Blur上的热门Slug,参考Opensea等平台的最高offer,如果有利可图那么Bid,成功买入后自动售出。因为是被动买入,所以不能结合合约做成100%无损,亏钱回滚,一开始在没计算权重的经常遇到一些 盘子,把价格刷高吸引Bot过来Bid,这一阶段损失惨重(参考我12月底的推特)。</span></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">5.顺序bid,这个策略基本就是基于量化操作了,blur抓包可以看到bid的过期时间,我把默认的永久改成了10-30分钟不等进行bid,同时按照顺序检索热门slug,这个bot本来应该在获得大量积分的同时赚到一些eth,流动性好,bid的时候给自己留足利润 </span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-6" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 1.5rem;"><a class="flex justify-center items-center mb-1" href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC-jJacAAegbj?format=jpg&name=4096x4096" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 0.25rem; text-decoration-color: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; text-decoration-style: inherit; text-decoration-thickness: inherit;" target="_blank"><div class="w-full rounded-xl" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; aspect-ratio: 554 / 285; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 554px; width: 554px;"><img alt="" class="object-cover w-full rounded-xl" crossorigin="anonymous" height="100%" loading="lazy" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpBC-jJacAAegbj.jpg" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border-radius: 0.75rem; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: auto; max-width: 100%; object-fit: cover; vertical-align: middle; width: 554px;" width="100%" /></div></a></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">后来发现Bid的积分,和你所Bid合集的Topoffer里所占的比例是相关的,于是每次Bid都保持自己所占的比例在80%以上
到尾声的时候这个策略就失效了,因为每一个Slug即便不是热门的slug想要占据到80%需要的资金异常庞大。</span></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">6. 最后一个阶段发现了可以绕过blur网站的策略,对一些无法BId的合集进行Bid,比如变异狗之类的,但是这个操作太扎眼了,只是简单尝试。在纠结是不是要单独开个地址进行的时候修复了。</span></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">不足:1.是我的账号 有一部分账号在一段时间内被禁掉了Bid功能,为了安全起见,我做了很长时间的无效工作,去避免被禁止
2.一开始没有优化一个好的策略,很多合集的积分都是自己左手打右手,但是这部分我没有测评积分的多少,因为如果积分多的话,多地址肯定是合适的。</span></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">3.Blur是频繁更新的,其实作为使用者感觉不到,但是我请求blur的接口经常不能使用,并且每次更新的周期都在半天左右,浪费了太多的时间。blur更新的越频繁,我对他的价值就越有信心,只是后期同样的成本,获得的积分时候前期的1/5,甚至更少。</span></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">4.忠诚度没想到是平均取值的,临时抱佛脚没有用,最高的忠诚度11点。</span></div><div class="h-px border-0 border-transparent" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid transparent; box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px;"><div class="block h-px w-1/3 bg-gray-200 dark:bg-gray-700 mx-auto" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 1px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; width: 240px;"></div></div><div class="whitespace-pre-wrap leading-normal text-lg" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; line-height: 1.58; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">总结:这波还帮群里小伙伴浅撸了一下,A7是没有,A6倒是撸了一些出来,更多的还是感觉一个人的力量太有限了,应该搞个云端之类的系统去集体去搞,这样更新的周期,策略之类的应该会做的更好,另外会开一期Blur的抽奖,祝大家穿越牛熊,科技永赚!</span></div></div><div class="flex justify-center gap-4 my-4 text-gray-300 dark:text-gray-600" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-text-opacity: 1; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(209 213 219/var(--tw-text-opacity)); display: flex; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; gap: 1rem; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 1rem;"><svg height="8" viewbox="0 0 200 200" width="8"></svg><span style="background-color: white;"><path d="M 100, 100 m -75, 0 a 75,75 0 1,0 150,0 a 75,75 0 1,0 -150,0" fill="currentColor"></path></span><svg height="8" viewbox="0 0 200 200" width="8"></svg><span style="background-color: white;"><path d="M 100, 100 m -75, 0 a 75,75 0 1,0 150,0 a 75,75 0 1,0 -150,0" fill="currentColor"></path></span><svg height="8" viewbox="0 0 200 200" width="8"></svg><span style="background-color: white;"><path d="M 100, 100 m -75, 0 a 75,75 0 1,0 150,0 a 75,75 0 1,0 -150,0" fill="currentColor"></path></span></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-8 items-center overflow-hidden" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; color: #122a38; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; gap: 2rem; overflow: hidden;"><div class="flex flex-col gap-4 items-center text-xl" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-size: 1.25rem; gap: 1rem; line-height: 1.75rem;"><span class="rounded-full bg-gray-400 w-32 h-32" style="--tw-bg-opacity: 1; --tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border-radius: 9999px; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; height: 8rem; width: 8rem;"><img alt="FreeBlock" class="w-full h-full object-cover rounded-full" loading="lazy" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1621757008088268800/6jK088g8_400x400.jpg" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border-radius: 9999px; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: 128px; max-width: 100%; object-fit: cover; vertical-align: middle; width: 128px;" /></span><div class="flex flex-col gap-2 items-center" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; gap: 0.5rem;"><a href="https://twitter.com/IiiisShack" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; text-decoration-color: inherit; text-decoration-line: none; text-decoration-style: inherit; text-decoration-thickness: inherit;" target="_blank" title="FreeBlock"><h3 class="text-lg" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 1.125rem; font-weight: inherit; line-height: 1.75rem; margin: 0px;"><div class="line-clamp-2 text-center" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; -webkit-box-orient: vertical; -webkit-line-clamp: 2; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: -webkit-box; overflow: hidden; text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;">FreeBlock</span></div></h3></a><div class="text-gray dark:text-gray-light text-base text-ellipsis whitespace-nowrap block overflow-hidden" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-text-opacity: 1; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(83 101 112/var(--tw-text-opacity)); font-size: 1rem; line-height: 1.5rem; overflow: hidden; text-overflow: ellipsis; white-space: nowrap;"><span style="background-color: white;">@IiiisShack</span></div></div><div class="" dir="auto" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box;"><span style="background-color: white;">BAYC#3861 #4083 holder Arbitrage thinking || ERC721A || full-time development Founder of Freeblock 穷且益坚不坠青云之志</span></div></div></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-741952346491563632023-02-16T05:24:00.003-08:002023-02-16T05:25:47.848-08:00入籍美国的10个步骤<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGo0KsmP9Xmf-W3-xgajoVYjYQl21VtfA0Rmt5MPoDY0kyCQcP3ssTj0EeoC-94qd__oBrMIVrT1T3TVdbMxZTB9moQNty1IRu_UMFd-97jeC2NNAxpagwIj7hFmbMVMn1xHSE1d1v2a4oY3NRhKJWXMYe8Sug6qHmXX5pBBXtaOMX-PK_Lngng0C_9g/s807/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20230216212239.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="807" data-original-width="476" height="477" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGo0KsmP9Xmf-W3-xgajoVYjYQl21VtfA0Rmt5MPoDY0kyCQcP3ssTj0EeoC-94qd__oBrMIVrT1T3TVdbMxZTB9moQNty1IRu_UMFd-97jeC2NNAxpagwIj7hFmbMVMn1xHSE1d1v2a4oY3NRhKJWXMYe8Sug6qHmXX5pBBXtaOMX-PK_Lngng0C_9g/w282-h477/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20230216212239.png" width="282" /></a></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu2i2cG5fiWN0Q22jSBwMBe5_Nyhk97NR6oVBLI6oGqkS66k-aeU7sAp8pv6qCqrenzRFmCM39t3A3pFsep_N0X7Mxx1sQOHyoWhQI4ZELJE4q2vAimUkQmdFhb3UFa3gea7_dPerh7mP4m0REsK57XLnTEQpG_lHgD1U-WkTAne6qgfyL5xLWVREK3A/s752/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20230216212254.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="752" data-original-width="471" height="451" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhu2i2cG5fiWN0Q22jSBwMBe5_Nyhk97NR6oVBLI6oGqkS66k-aeU7sAp8pv6qCqrenzRFmCM39t3A3pFsep_N0X7Mxx1sQOHyoWhQI4ZELJE4q2vAimUkQmdFhb3UFa3gea7_dPerh7mP4m0REsK57XLnTEQpG_lHgD1U-WkTAne6qgfyL5xLWVREK3A/w282-h451/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20230216212254.png" width="282" /></a></div><br /></div><br /><p>PDF文件下载:<a href="https://mega.nz/file/ri4kUagT#g8Zw3UPBDXh1RFpNnT9cQjjytPV47AwKslHnPKOabnw" target="_blank">MEGA网盘下载</a></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p> https://mega.nz/file/ri4kUagT#g8Zw3UPBDXh1RFpNnT9cQjjytPV47AwKslHnPKOabnw</p>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-79340108774938687942023-02-16T04:12:00.000-08:002023-02-17T00:07:37.394-08:00山姆供应链---你不知道的行业内幕<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRctYuWpbxwXI--gTdWNyjxbAaQo7EbhOU83zTJ9b0A6T3xJzFU-fFiPtmHRQQN1lnPHdV5SgsHPGFAi5kd0O7_u6BicMWXzPkldIgQI26xHy1sYrjpWPQPS_Z_JWfRZzCI5XCqpMh2Mu9XX3b2WEI4h17pe-dQ9Da_ot0eGPZeC6ydH7CEMcr2lz4jQ/s688/a7e4-kkmphps8042427.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="520" data-original-width="688" height="374" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRctYuWpbxwXI--gTdWNyjxbAaQo7EbhOU83zTJ9b0A6T3xJzFU-fFiPtmHRQQN1lnPHdV5SgsHPGFAi5kd0O7_u6BicMWXzPkldIgQI26xHy1sYrjpWPQPS_Z_JWfRZzCI5XCqpMh2Mu9XX3b2WEI4h17pe-dQ9Da_ot0eGPZeC6ydH7CEMcr2lz4jQ/w494-h374/a7e4-kkmphps8042427.jpg" width="494" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p> 最近发现了一个现象:山姆会员店的水果,居然比专做水果的百果园好吃!又好吃又便宜!可是山姆凭什么能做到呢?</p><p><br /></p><p>就找了接触过山姆供应链的小伙伴聊了聊。</p><p><br /></p><p>逻辑是什么呢?</p><p>1、</p><p>最近两年,经常在小红书上看到有人晒山姆的商品。</p><p>说实话,一开始我也是怀疑的。</p><p>心想无非就是营销动作。</p><p>但是,一个多月前,第一次去了山姆,从此就离不开了。</p><p><br /></p><p>现在家里的各种食材,主要都在山姆买。</p><p>第一个月在山姆花了快1万块钱。</p><p><br /></p><p>而且,我和我爱人在山姆还买了好多预制菜。</p><p>谁要说预制菜赛道不行?反正我是不认的!</p><p><br /></p><p>为啥山姆能让我和我老婆这么忠诚呢?</p><p>道理不难。</p><p>它的模式,都直接印在了自己的墙上——</p><p>第一,只有买会员才能购物。</p><p>会员费成为了山姆最主要的利润来源。</p><p>但是只要你是会员,其他商品,山姆就不再怎么额外挣钱了。</p><p><br /></p><p>第二,山姆提供的是品质足够好、同时性价比足够高的商品。</p><p>为了保证品质,有这么几点,是山姆做的动作。</p><p>选址一定在郊区——让售价里,房租的成本降到最低。</p><p>包装特大、都是预先包装——于是,包装、储藏的成本也最低。</p><p>SKU少——于是,单个SKU能实现更大销量,也给了山姆更大的溢价权。</p><p>专门的选品团队,保证选品够好。</p><p><br /></p><p>这几点加在一起,让用户付的钱,全花在品质上。</p><p>而不要花在房租和其他成本上,保证了山姆的性价比。</p><p><br /></p><p>反正,特别适合我这种因为经济形势,收入降级、又不甘于消费降级的中产。</p><p>但是,</p><p>很难得的是。</p><p>我在山姆买了好多次水果——</p><p>买过葡萄柚、草莓、哈密瓜、蓝莓。</p><p>一般在超市买水果,难免踩雷。</p><p>这些水果,不仅仅没踩雷。</p><p>而且比专门做生鲜水果的百果园,还好吃、还便宜。</p><p><br /></p><p>在有山姆之前,我比较过各种水果外卖的水果。</p><p>结论是:</p><p>百果园>盒马>美团买菜。</p><p>但是,山姆不管在品质还是价格上,都优于百果园。</p><p><br /></p><p>这就不一般了。</p><p>毕竟山姆是个综合超市,百果园可是专门只做生鲜。</p><p>综合的比专业的做得还好。</p><p>于是,我就找了给山姆供过货的一家供应商,问了问山姆是怎么做到的。</p><p><br /></p><p>2、</p><p>给山姆供货很难。</p><p>山姆对所有商品的要求,叫做“有会员价值”。</p><p><br /></p><p>啥是山姆要求的会员价值呢?</p><p>二者必居其一——</p><p>要么,你这个产品,能提供别的地方买不到的好体验。</p><p>要么,你这个产品,能提供别的地方买不到的好价格。</p><p><br /></p><p>体验或价格,且是别的地方买不到的。</p><p>这就是山姆的采购标准。</p><p><br /></p><p>而且,山姆对供应商的要求,并不是只要拿到了供货资格,就可以高枕无忧的。</p><p>他的采购,每隔一两个月,还会找你要求“进一步提高会员价值”。</p><p>有些供应商扛不住压力,只能价格一降再降。</p><p><br /></p><p>3、</p><p>你说到一般的超市,采购要选择品质好、价格低的商品,这谁不知道嘛!</p><p>关键为啥山姆能做到呢?</p><p><br /></p><p>第一,要“好”还是“全”,首先是个选择的问题。</p><p>大多数超市,你要开门卖货,品类总得全吧?</p><p>油盐酱醋、黄瓜白菜啥都得有。</p><p>但是,只要你要求“全”,难免就会遇到今天黄瓜不好、明天白菜不好。</p><p>可是超市商品得全嘛,不好,也得有。</p><p><br /></p><p>山姆,则是“你要不好,我今天宁可不卖”。</p><p>甭管商品全不全。</p><p>只有好的,才能在山姆上架。</p><p>于是,你会发现,上周买了葡萄柚,觉得好吃,想下周再买点儿。</p><p>结果下周一看,没了。</p><p>热门的烤鸡、烤猪肘,今天有没有,全看运气。</p><p><br /></p><p>因为放弃了商品的“全面”,绝对的“优质”才能实现。</p><p><br /></p><p>第二,稳定的优质、稳定的高性价比,使得山姆征服了中产用户。</p><p>这些更有购买力的用户、更大的单品销售规模,</p><p>使得山姆变成了厂商眼中的好渠道!</p><p><br /></p><p>不仅仅有销量,还能带品牌。</p><p>于是,山姆的采购人员有了在厂商面前的议价权。</p><p><br /></p><p>对于很多品类。</p><p>10年前,最强势的采购是家乐福的人。</p><p>但是今天,山姆的采购,就是最强势的采购。</p><p><br /></p><p>第三,有了议价权,就能买到好商品吗?</p><p>采购人员还要够好,能够用好议价权,知道怎么拿议价权换回用户价值。</p><p>山姆的采购和管培生,必须要海外留学的硕士。</p><p>而且,这些高素质的人,人均管理的SKU远少于同行。</p><p><br /></p><p>按说,</p><p>每天的工作,正常的采购应该都在外面找供应商,喝酒、聊天呀。</p><p>山姆的采购,管理的SKU更少,应该更清闲才对。</p><p>但是,反而他们总加班。</p><p>加班的原因,和很多互联网公司一样——</p><p>会议太多。</p><p>他们大量的时间在总部开会。</p><p>会上,</p><p>会有总部的商分、行研,分享行业信息、同行价格和各种业务数据。</p><p><br /></p><p>在各种培训和严格要求下,</p><p>山姆的采购,专业度显著领先于其他零售商的采购。</p><p>只有山姆的采购,谈价格时,</p><p>能看着你的选材和工艺,直接报出生产成本。</p><p>所以,才能杀到最低的价格。</p><p><br /></p><p>第四,山姆给了这些采购,极大的授权。</p><p>一般的超市,总得有店长,正常应该是店长订货、店长决定陈列、背门店的交易额。</p><p>但是,山姆的店长,只是个工具人。</p><p><br /></p><p>背交易额的,都是采购。</p><p>采购决定了选品、决定了供货。</p><p>也决定了每个门店怎么陈列、做哪些额外的活动。</p><p><br /></p><p>而店长呢?</p><p>只负责上货、盘货、收银、客服等等没有含金量的管理工作。</p><p><br /></p><p>4、</p><p>所以,山姆的品质和性价比,首先是个放弃了“品类全面”、只追求“品质优先”的模式选择。</p><p>定义了用户价值,并做出取舍,才有后面的结果。</p><p>而具体供应链管理的过程,在我看来,反而不难。</p><p>是决定了用户价值后,持续投入之下自然而然的结果。</p><p><br /></p><p>5、</p><p>当我研究越来越多企业的供应链时,我也意识到——</p><p>供应链管理方式,</p><p>其实是你定义的用户价值,向供应商传递的过程。</p><p><br /></p><p>山姆找供应链要“品质”,就放弃了“全面”。</p><p>百果园找供应链要“全面”,那“品质”就肯定难以保证。</p><p><br /></p><p>蜜雪冰城要的是“低成本”。</p><p>所以,就要重投入建厂、控制原产地。</p><p>但是,投入越多,就会越失去灵活性。</p><p>蜜雪冰城不可能像喜茶那样频繁上新。</p><p><br /></p><p>SHEIN要“灵活性”。</p><p>快速上新、小量打版。</p><p>就注定不可能靠自动化、标准化,实现大规模下那么低的成本。</p><p><br /></p><p>供应链管理,首先是:</p><p>品质、全面、廉价、灵活,四个要素的取舍和排序。</p><p>在取舍之后,我就发现,其实蜜雪冰城和苹果,供应链管理的模式如出一辙。 #你不知道的行业内幕</p><p><br /></p><p>原文:https://twitter.com/jike_collection/status/1623747935786930178</p>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-36147989209725732462023-02-16T04:05:00.000-08:002023-02-17T00:07:53.811-08:00触类旁通---张颂文的演技和产品运营<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm_i4urkHjSUnD8D-IC2F3IIhaJNXiZCo2qtHxILbceuHwi-P3nWarbTSyEHqsGJ06fhoQjAQEerEjmX8lwEe3JlZwmd-qgD7i32TBysCuBgtHMFlSKR3j2HBt5rFrHgr6tWg1oWC3ojXWGH8WxzlJ53Xm7537GC_WnlO-I24dYG3cIihFdLr1YJE14w/s900/unnamed.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="900" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgm_i4urkHjSUnD8D-IC2F3IIhaJNXiZCo2qtHxILbceuHwi-P3nWarbTSyEHqsGJ06fhoQjAQEerEjmX8lwEe3JlZwmd-qgD7i32TBysCuBgtHMFlSKR3j2HBt5rFrHgr6tWg1oWC3ojXWGH8WxzlJ53Xm7537GC_WnlO-I24dYG3cIihFdLr1YJE14w/s320/unnamed.jpg" width="320" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #122a38; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></p><p><span style="background-color: #f5f8fa; color: #122a38; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.125rem; font-weight: inherit; white-space: pre-wrap;"> </span><span style="color: #122a38; font-family: Open Sans, -apple-system, SF UI Text, Arial, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft YaHei, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 18px; white-space: pre-wrap;">最近在b站上把张颂文的访谈和综艺片段都看了一遍。聊的是演技,我听着就觉得和运营也触类旁通了。张颂文老师如果来做电商运营,那也一定是行业顶级。
让我印象很深的有两点。
第一,他从来不把任何事当成理所当然,质疑所有的套路化表演。
比如我们常见的影视剧里表现一个人做了噩梦的情节,看到的镜头经常是角色冷汗直流,表情扭曲,然后大叫一声突然坐了起来。但张颂文就会质疑,现实里做噩梦的人真是这样吗?好像不是,更多时候是醒了之后还在现实与梦境的界限,在判断到底回到现实没有。
应该是朦朦胧胧,但心有余悸的感觉,动作和表情的幅度没有那么夸张。
第二,他观察细腻,准备充足,会为了演出一个镜头,做自己的社会学实验。张颂文指导学生的时候,让他们演一个普通人走在路上,突然发现地上有一个钱包,去把它捡起来的镜头。
大部分人的表演是,左顾右盼,犹豫再三之后,慢慢挪过去把钱包捡走。但张颂文就说这样不对,因为他做过实验。他真的买了十几个皮夹,就扔在大街上,观察普通人的反应。绝大部分人通常都是发现之后,短暂犹豫,然后加速快走几步,迅速捡起就走了。这是一个加速的动作,而非匀速或者降速。
以上让我想到了经常看到的两个运营误区。
一是刻舟求剑,也就是所谓的“套路化运营”。以ip运营为例,常见的场景是一个运营成功打造过一个达人showcase,之后所有达人都按照一个模板来了。从人设到选品,从场景定位到视频风格,就这么焊死了。叫卖成功过,那每个达人都叫卖吧。
别说不同的达人有不同的风格,就算是同一个达人,在不同阶段也是要成长变化的,最后结果往往就是旧瓶装不了新酒。而打破套路的关键点,则在于对每个运营动作都要问自己一遍:“为什么这么做?有没有更好的方法?达人喜欢吗?能坚持吗?”
二是远离C端用户,自以为是。这事儿我还真干过。
之前做品牌的时候有个sku是一盒25枚装的鸡蛋,我们当时自己yy的卖点是,0沙门氏菌、SGS N项农残0检出、富含叶黄素等等。卖了一段时间后,发现的确好评如潮,但用户的重点完全不是一回事儿。反馈最多的好评是:“打开盒子之后,每个鸡蛋都一般大小,且颜色完全一致,太高级了!”
我们当时合作的工厂技术的确比较领先,会通过机器筛选把25枚大小(有明确最小克数标准,太小的不要)和颜色(也有罗氏色度标准)最接近的鸡蛋放入一盒里,导致用户的视觉感受非常愉悦。在那之后,我们就把主图详情页视频内容全调整了,就着重展现每个鸡蛋一般大小一般颜色一般的好看。
且产品经理每周的工作多了一项,就是给买过我们产品的用户打电话,收集C端最真实的反馈。
靠近真实,靠近用户。
演技如此,运营亦如此。 #你不知道的行业内幕</span></span></p><div>原文:https://twitter.com/jike_collection/status/1626180500368003072</div><div class="flex justify-center gap-4 my-4 text-gray-300 dark:text-gray-600" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-text-opacity: 1; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; background-color: #f5f8fa; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(209 213 219/var(--tw-text-opacity)); display: flex; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; gap: 1rem; justify-content: center; margin-bottom: 1rem; margin-top: 1rem;"><svg height="8" viewbox="0 0 200 200" width="8"><path d="M 100, 100 m -75, 0 a 75,75 0 1,0 150,0 a 75,75 0 1,0 -150,0" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><svg height="8" viewbox="0 0 200 200" width="8"><path d="M 100, 100 m -75, 0 a 75,75 0 1,0 150,0 a 75,75 0 1,0 -150,0" fill="currentColor"></path></svg><svg height="8" viewbox="0 0 200 200" width="8"><path d="M 100, 100 m -75, 0 a 75,75 0 1,0 150,0 a 75,75 0 1,0 -150,0" fill="currentColor"></path></svg></div><div class="flex flex-col gap-8 items-center overflow-hidden" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; background-color: #f5f8fa; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; color: #122a38; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-family: "Open Sans", -apple-system, "SF UI Text", Arial, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft YaHei", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; gap: 2rem; overflow: hidden;"><div class="flex flex-col gap-4 items-center text-xl" style="--tw-border-spacing-x: 0; --tw-border-spacing-y: 0; --tw-ring-color: rgba(48,151,209,0.5); --tw-ring-offset-color: #fff; --tw-ring-offset-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-ring-offset-width: 0px; --tw-ring-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-rotate: 0; --tw-scale-x: 1; --tw-scale-y: 1; --tw-scroll-snap-strictness: proximity; --tw-shadow-colored: 0 0 #0000; --tw-shadow: 0 0 #0000; --tw-skew-x: 0; --tw-skew-y: 0; --tw-translate-x: 0; --tw-translate-y: 0; align-items: center; border: 0px solid rgb(229, 231, 235); box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-direction: column; font-size: 1.25rem; gap: 1rem; line-height: 1.75rem;"></div></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-74493549427912160732022-12-01T16:30:00.003-08:002022-12-01T16:30:46.927-08:00 【頭條轉載】佛教的自我救贖<h1 style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: x-large;"> <span style="color: red; font-family: Arial;">【頭條轉載】佛教的自我救贖</span></span></span></h1><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;"> 佛教産生發展到現在,流弊極深,病入膏肓,</span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;"> 需要刮骨療毒,自我革新,才能更好地傳承。</span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial;"><img ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/m757c5.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/m757c5.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span class="f16" style="font-family: Arial; line-height: 2;"><span style="color: blue; display: inline-block;">流弊①:【晦澀艱深】</span></span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;">佛經以唠唠叨叨而聞名。之所以唠唠叨叨,並不是全無道理。其一:終極奥義,很難說明白。而佛陀力圖把“不可說”的東西說清楚,結果是想說明白而說不明白,或者別人已經明白而他生怕別人還没明白。其二,《一唱三嘆》的行文風格,對聽者是一種耐心的磨練,而佛教修行的要求之一就是耐心,無論如何都不能起嗔念。《大話西遊》中的唐三藏可謂是得其真傳者,而孫悟空顯然經不起這種磨練。其三,疊床架屋的經典架構,能在觀感上予人以《恢宏敬畏》之感。然而,佛經的浩瀚、佛法的繁複,事實上阻礙了佛理的傳播和佛教精神的真正落地。面對卷帙浩繁的經文,加上晦澀艱深的術語,有心學佛者很多都知難而退了。而且,即便堅持鑽研的人,也大多迷失在了《概念的森林》裡。中國大地上固然建起了無數寺廟,但真正予人深刻印象的不是佛法而是建築。因此,佛教的一個重要現實問題是:如何刪繁就簡,把佛理以簡明扼要的文字向世人說清楚。當然,這不是一件容易的事。我在寫這篇文章的時候,曾多次嘗試把《心經》轉譯成一篇優美、到位、不丟失任何信息的《信達雅》式白話文,但發現做不到,數易其稿後,還是采用了這樣的漫讀散文。文言文,有其獨到的信息傳遞優勢,如果我們不能把佛經白話化的話,可以做的事也許應當是提取佛教之義理精髓,重新創作,使之更具穿透力。</span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial;"><img ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/ktt5au.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/ktt5au.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span class="f16" style="font-family: Arial; line-height: 2;"><span style="color: blue; display: inline-block;">流弊②:【喧賓奪主】</span></span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;">佛學的主幹,本來是放下與超越,是離苦與涅槃,是自度與度他。六道輪回、善惡果報,本來只是實現上述主幹目的之鋪墊和基礎。然而,在佛教的傳播和發展過程中,《六道輪回》比《跳出輪回》更深入人心,《善惡果報》比《涅槃寂靜》更令人神往,旁枝末節掩蓋了要義精髓。結果,我們今天看到的佛教,太過強調《福報》,而且將《福報》與《禮佛》過分挂鈎,使得它變成了徹頭徹尾的燒香磕頭、有求必應的宗教。這種變化,固然與世人的祈福心理有莫大關系,但也與佛教經典自身有關。比如說,《無量壽經》中即有大量把福報與禮佛相挂鈎的內容,而淨土宗在民間流傳極廣,但其真正精髓並沒有得到很好弘揚,反倒是果報理念紮根深厚。《無量壽經》本來是教人擺脫果報輪回的,但人們更願意相信其中現實福報的說法。其實,將福報與禮佛過分挂鈎,就相當于《微信公衆號》誘導《訂閱者》分享一樣,是要被騰訊銷號的。而破財消災,其實跟行賄受賄、貪贓枉法也沒什麽兩樣。竊以爲,此等皆非佛祖初衷。因此,當代佛教如欲有個新面目,還須從以善惡果報爲核心內容的架構中走出來,重樹佛教之主幹。</span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial;"><img ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lm5p0t.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lm5p0t.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span class="f16" style="font-family: Arial; line-height: 2;"><span style="color: blue; display: inline-block;">流弊③:【偶像崇拜】</span></span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;">佛學本身是無神論學說,沒有偶像崇拜。釋迦牟尼得道後,本身也只是壹個普通人。他《住世說法》數十年,本質上跟孔子《杏壇開講》亦無甚區別。他的逝世,也就是一個普通人的逝世。最初的佛教徒,也是這麽認爲的。然而,由于佛陀的理論包含了生死輪回、無爲解脫、永恒寂靜、如來法相等要素,因而逐步發展爲偶像崇拜特征極其明顯的宗教。釋迦牟尼被神化了,佛陀甚至變成了掌握生死予奪大權的三界主宰。此外,佛教中還有很多寓言故事,本來是用來幫助人們理解佛經的,結果這些寓言被當作真人真事看,逐漸向迷信一路演變。盲目崇拜與迷信觀念相糅合,使得佛教平添許多不必要的神秘感,反而不適應現實社會之需要。善是福源,佛不是主宰。求福,行善即可,不必磕頭。當代佛教若想換一種形象,還須從崇拜與迷信中拔足。</span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial;"><img ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lrm9l3.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lrm9l3.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial;"><img ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lrmc47.gif" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lrmc47.gif" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span><span class="f16" style="font-family: Arial; line-height: 2;"><span style="color: blue; display: inline-block;">流弊④:【 勢利媚俗】</span></span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;">佛教在數千年的生存中變得世故、勢利和媚俗,且當今更烈。這也是無可奈何的事。畢竟,妳再高大上,也要生存,也要服從世俗政權的要求。但佛教不應《自甘墮落》。比如說,少林寺的商業化,我個人以爲,的確違背佛教精神。弘揚佛法,不在於把場面做得多大,而在于把人心入得多深;不在於把寺廟做大做強,而在于把佛法說清說透。做大做強了那是商業文化,無益于安頓人心。若真欲弘揚佛法,最好的方式是樹起個“靜心”的旗幟,立起個“不動”的榜樣,讓人望之如泰山而心有依歸。當今世界,人心浮躁是最大的問題,醉生夢死是普遍的現實,最需要靜心。佛教本可以在這方面發揮重要作用,奈何自甘墮落,爲名利所驅使!名僧亦當以《講經說法》名滿天下而非依據香火,就如昔日梨園名角,當以《台上功夫》口口相傳而非《欽定職稱》。試問今日大德,幾人能有如此修爲?</span><br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-color: initial; border-image: initial; border-style: initial;"><img ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lx36a1.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/12/01/lx36a1.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px;" /></span><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span></span></span><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-size: medium;">PS:总的来说,人群是愚昧的,也幸好往迷信和宗教方向发展,释迦摩尼的“哲学”才得以流传至今,不过要从一堆沙子里找出一粒粒真正的小金粒,也很困难。<br style="font-family: Arial;" /><span style="font-family: Arial;"> </span></span></span><br style="background-color: #f9f9ec; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px;" /></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-62463905337431759772022-11-27T18:31:00.004-08:002022-12-01T16:30:55.436-08:00祝由术<p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"> </span></span></p><h1 style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: large;">祝由术</span></h1><p><span style="background-color: white;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKrQ5bNAopVlVF-TfjNFiut9-0v4Cc6Vi_i3buNkbwwiJthJCk_WH3rM1FOeGLKb6nD17x8izpf-99Fpdu9hRFtltmpCPZjcSQ5EoFeCoSXX_ZifuF0jekOAxnbL11L_qyCMpv7qECx9Nzk8RWkFTUdjKfdfTbjRGGhQsK9gYNlK1caAUqfa-2eDzBWA/s603/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20221128102842.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="490" data-original-width="603" height="507" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKrQ5bNAopVlVF-TfjNFiut9-0v4Cc6Vi_i3buNkbwwiJthJCk_WH3rM1FOeGLKb6nD17x8izpf-99Fpdu9hRFtltmpCPZjcSQ5EoFeCoSXX_ZifuF0jekOAxnbL11L_qyCMpv7qECx9Nzk8RWkFTUdjKfdfTbjRGGhQsK9gYNlK1caAUqfa-2eDzBWA/w624-h507/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20221128102842.png" width="624" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;">( PS:看不懂,但是觉得很牛B的样子。</span></span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">取其精华去其糟粕地读一下,留存这个文档,权当备份。)</span></p><p><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></p><p><br /></p><span style="background-color: white;"><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;">借符咒禁禳来治疗疾病的一种方法</span></div></span><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" />祝由术是古代一种精神疗法,以现代人的眼光来看是咒语画符的迷信道术,但在中医眼里是一种历史悠久的治病招数。其实“ 祝由术”存在已久,最早可追溯到上古时期。“祝由术”最初是与巫术同源,主要用来医治心理不健全所致之症。到唐宋时期“巫”“医”慢慢分离成独立的分支,最后才形成现代所谓的“心理学”。因此,剧中道士用“祝由术”治病符合当时时代背景,古代自隋朝开始就纳入官方医学范畴,应与“迷信“相区别。</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">追根溯源</span></div></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" />祝由之术存在已久,几可远溯上古。《古今医统大全·卷之一》:“上古神医,以菅为席,以刍为狗。人有疾求医,但北面而咒,十言即愈。古祝由科,此其由也。”《黄帝内经·素问·移精变气论篇·第十三》:“黄帝曰:余闻古之治病,惟其移精变气,可祝由而已。”《圣济总录·卷第四·治法·由》:“周官疡医,掌众疡祝药劀杀之齐,必先之以祝,盖医之用祝尚矣。”历代以来中医体系都有祝由一脉,及唐·王焘《外台秘要》收载“祝由科”,说明最迟在唐代,祝由已成为中医体系独立一科,例如明代太医院设医术十三科:“曰大方脉,曰妇人,曰伤寒,曰疮疡,曰针灸,曰眼,曰口齿,曰咽喉,曰接骨,曰金镞,曰按摩,曰祝由”。但据张介宾所说,“今按摩、祝由二科失其传,惟民间尚有之”;而上溯直至《黄帝内经》,通篇不言鬼神邪祟,认为“因知百病之胜,先知百病之所从”是祝由取效的原因,王冰的注文也仅“祝说病由,不劳针石而已”几个字,说明祝由一直处于中医体系的边缘。历代医家或有信者,或有疑者,或有两存者,以之为临床权变之术。即便著有四卷《祝由录验》的赵学敏,对待祝由的态度也是“禁法之大莫如水法,次则祝由,兹录其小者,绝扰屏嚣,均无妨于大雅。其有近于巫、觋所为者,概在所摈。”(见《串雅内外编·串雅内编·凡例》)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />单从字面意思来说,祝同咒;由,病所从生也,正如王冰在《黄帝内经·素问·移精变气论篇·第十三》对“祝由”所作的注文:“祝说病由,不劳针石而已”。但这过于简单的释义并未说清楚祝由的对象是什么,如何进行祝由等细节性东西,并且似乎存在曲解的倾向,很容易使人理解为“对病人讲清楚得病的原因所在”,但这距离历史上真正存在的祝由相距太远了。而从“上古神医,以菅为席,以刍为狗。人有疾求医,但北面而咒,十言即愈。古祝由科,此其由也”可知,在祝由的时候,并不是对病人解释病情,而是对冥冥之中的第三者说话作法。这种理解更接近于祝由之真面目。<br style="user-select: text !important;" /><br style="user-select: text !important;" />巫(祝)识</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" />巫,《说文·巫部》:“巫,祝也。女能事无形,以舞降神者也。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />祝,《说文·礻部》:“祝,祭主赞词者。从示,从人、口。一曰从兑省。《易》曰:‘兑,为口、为巫。’”《玉篇·礻部》:“祝,祭词也。”《尚书·洛诰》:“王命作册,逸祝册。”孔颖达疏:“读策告神谓之祝。”由此可见,“祝”有三义:⑴祭主赞词者:祭祀时司祭礼的人,即男巫,亦名觋(音席xi)。⑵祭词:祭神的祝祷词。读祭词者,即用言语向鬼神祈祷求福的人。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />祝通鬼神。《礼记·曾子问》:“祫祭于祖,则祝迎四庙之主。”郑玄注:“祝,接神者也。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />祝,乃与巫同类职业者,故《易》曰“为巫”,而有巫祝之称。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />巫祝者,皆乃上古时期高级知识分子,他们晓天文、懂地理、知人事,而且最重要的是能与鬼神相通,故有“神职官员”之称。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />《周礼·春官·大祝》:“大祝掌六祝之辞,以事鬼神祇(示),祈福祥,求永贞。一曰顺祝,二曰年祝,三曰吉祝,四曰化祝,五曰瑞祝,六曰筴祝。”郑司农云:“筴祝,远罪疾。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />《周礼·春官·小祝》:“小祝掌小祭祀,将事侯禳祷祠之祝号,以祈福祥,顺丰年,逆时雨,宁风旱,弥灾兵,远罪疾。”郑玄注:“禳,禳却凶咎,宁风旱之属。”贾公彦疏:“宁风旱、弥灾兵、远罪疾,三者即是禳……云‘禳,禳却凶咎,宁风旱之属’者,‘之属’中兼有弥灾兵、远罪疾,三者是凶咎之事,故设祷祠禳却之。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />《易·巽》:“巽在床下,用史巫纷若吉,无咎。”孔颖达疏:“史谓祝史,巫谓巫觋,并是接事鬼神之人也。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />巫分男女,女巫称巫,男巫称巫与觋。《周礼·春官·神仕》:“凡以神仕者,掌三辰之法,以犹鬼神示之居。”贾公彦疏:“按:《外传》云:‘在男曰觋,在女曰巫。’使制神之地位次主之度与此文合,故知此神仕是巫……言‘在男曰觋,在女曰巫’者,男子阳,有两称,名巫、名觋。女子阴,不变,直名巫,无觋称。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />据《周礼·春官》记载,巫祝之多,有“大祝、小祝、丧祝、甸祝、诅祝、司巫、男巫、女巫、神仕”者等,他们有明确的分工,其中祝的“神职官位”比巫高。凡王、后、贵人等之丧礼祭祀、国家之祈福安灾、自然灾害、外交战争及王、后、贵人之草药沐浴、身体康健者等,皆由巫祝掌管。</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">巫医识</span></div></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" />巫祝有知医者,谓之巫医。他们通晓医术,具有“远罪疾”之祷祠及医术,即“符咒禁禳之法,用符咒以治病”,可愈疾活人,故有“毉者,或从巫”之说。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />明·徐春甫《古今医统》:“巫医,以巫而替医,故曰巫医也。《论语》曰:人而无恒,不可以作巫医。孔子叹人不可以无恒,而善其言之有理。朱子注云:巫所以交鬼神,医所以寄死生。岐而二之,似未当也。夫医之为道,始于神农,阐于黄帝,按某病用某药,着有《内经》、《素问》,所谓圣人坟典之书,以援民命,安可与巫觋之流同日而语耶?但学医者,有精粗不同,故名因之有异。精于医者曰明医,善于医者曰良医,寿君保相曰国医,粗工昧理曰庸医,击鼓舞趋祈禳疾病曰巫医。是则巫觋之徒,不知医药之理者也。故南人谓之巫医者,此也。今世谓之端公太保,又称为夜行卜士,北方名之师婆,虽是一切虚诞之辈,则亦不可以无恒也,矧他乎?”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />医乃医之简化字。《说文·酉部》:“医,治病工也……古者巫彭初作医。”毉,同医。《集韵·之韵》:“医,《说文》:‘治病工也……或从巫。’”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />《广雅·释诂四》:“医,巫也。”王念孙疏证:“巫与医皆所以除疾,故医字或从巫作毉。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />清·俞樾《群经平议·孟子一》:“是巫、医古得通称,盖医之先亦巫也。”、“巫、医对文则别,散文则通。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />医,上古时期或本源于巫,有“古者巫彭初作医”之说,故“医”字,古作毉。《山海经·海内西经·开明东有诸巫疗窫窳》:“开明东有巫彭、巫抵、巫阳、巫履、巫凡、巫相、夹窫窳之尸,皆操不死之药以距之。窫窳者,蛇身人面,贰负臣所杀也。”《山海经·大荒西经·灵山十巫》:“有灵山,巫咸、巫即、巫盼、巫彭、巫姑、巫真、巫礼、巫抵、巫谢、巫罗十巫,从此升降,百药爰在。”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />李今庸《读古医书研究·略论‘巫’的起源和《黄帝内经》中的巫祝治病》:“巫之为人治疗疾病,由来已久,《太平御览·方术部二·医一》引《世本》说:‘巫咸,尧臣也,以鸿术为帝尧之医’,《吕氏春秋·审分览·勿躬》说:‘巫彭作医’,《韩诗外传》卷十第九说:‘吾闻上古有茅父。矛父之为医也,以菅为席,以刍为狗,北面而祝,发十言耳,诸扶舆而来者皆平复如故。’《吕氏春秋·先识览·知接》载齐桓公说:‘常之巫审于生死,能去苛病’。是医在战国以前,被操之于巫觋之手,医、巫不分,巫就是医,医就是巫,故‘医’字从‘巫’而作‘毉’者,又恒以‘巫医’为称。……是巫本掌握有医药知识,并常采药以用,特以舞姿降神的形态祈福消灾,为人治病。……巫祝治病,在古代,并不完全是消极,在某种情况下,也可起到一定的治疗作用。《楚国风俗志·巫觋篇·巫觋的医疗活动》说:‘以巫术为手段治疗,并非没有积极作用和效果。问明病由后,巫师向鬼神祝祷,并对病人施以催眠、暗示和激发等手段,使病人相信自己的病是由于特定的鬼神作祟,在巫师象征性地祈求某神的原谅或驱使某鬼遁逃的过程中,病人内在的防御机能便被充分的诱发出来,这也就是《素问》所谓移精变气,与此同时,因生病而产生的忧郁、恐惧心理也在不知不觉间得到了排解。对于心理障碍性疾病和一些小病症,巫术疗法往往比较灵验,但对于大疾病和沉疴,巫术疗法则难以见效。’”<br style="user-select: text !important;" />春秋战国时期则巫、医有别,有“信巫不信医,六不治也”(《史记·扁鹊传》)及“拘于鬼神者,不可与言至德。”(《素问·五脏别论》)的教导。</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" /><h2 style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">《祝由术》乾集</span></h2></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div class="image-big" style="color: white; display: inline-block; overflow-wrap: break-word; position: relative; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-all;"><img data-link="https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zhta3w.jpg" ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhta3w.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhta3w.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px; user-select: text !important;" /></div> <br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div class="image-big" style="color: white; display: inline-block; overflow-wrap: break-word; position: relative; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-all;"><img data-link="https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zhtl2b.jpg" ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtl2b.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtl2b.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px; user-select: text !important;" /></div> <br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div class="image-big" style="color: white; display: inline-block; overflow-wrap: break-word; position: relative; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-all;"><img data-link="https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zhtox9.jpg" ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtox9.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtox9.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px; user-select: text !important;" /></div> <br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div class="image-big" style="color: white; display: inline-block; overflow-wrap: break-word; position: relative; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-all;"><img data-link="https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zhtp5x.jpg" ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtp5x.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtp5x.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px; user-select: text !important;" /></div> <br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div class="image-big" style="color: white; display: inline-block; overflow-wrap: break-word; position: relative; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-all;"><img data-link="https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zhtyz5.jpg" ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtyz5.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhtyz5.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px; user-select: text !important;" /></div> <br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div class="image-big" style="color: white; display: inline-block; overflow-wrap: break-word; position: relative; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-all;"><img data-link="https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zhu7nr.jpg" ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhu7nr.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhu7nr.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border: 0px; cursor: pointer; max-width: 100%; min-height: 16px; min-width: 16px; user-select: text !important;" /></div> <br style="user-select: text !important;" /><div class="image-big" style="color: white; display: inline-block; overflow-wrap: break-word; position: relative; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-all;"><img data-link="https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zhuct3.jpg" ess-data="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhuct3.jpg" iyl-data="http://a.d/adblo_ck.jpg" src="https://23img.com/i/2022/11/22/zhuct3.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; 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链接: https://23img.com/l/?i=/i/2022/11/22/zie9hh.jpg"><a class="swhite" style="user-select: text !important;">高清</a> | 链接</div></div></span></span><br /></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-34313124963782436982022-11-27T18:19:00.004-08:002022-12-01T16:31:01.787-08:00 《江湖绝技八字流口》<h1 style="text-align: center;"> 《江湖绝技八字流口》</h1><p> </p><p><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEj3FbmgqBjW96jtT7ns4H7kkMjdpg1rWFeGA-zgXKPs6LiCaSMSGIW9kXFa_Dg7387TPQYg9eXYl-g7KHmsWxQzwVkd500MHv4pz-bAsV060TVKwDTT2BjRKZoZDJesdrYf6sAn-8tFsu3KQaIPhTN9a45sbNpn7tLYFqDAiV-GJQnbF052fcaLxHPw/s630/49a7c9d2233dfa8e3ae08d9fa10f53cc.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="331" data-original-width="630" height="362" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiEj3FbmgqBjW96jtT7ns4H7kkMjdpg1rWFeGA-zgXKPs6LiCaSMSGIW9kXFa_Dg7387TPQYg9eXYl-g7KHmsWxQzwVkd500MHv4pz-bAsV060TVKwDTT2BjRKZoZDJesdrYf6sAn-8tFsu3KQaIPhTN9a45sbNpn7tLYFqDAiV-GJQnbF052fcaLxHPw/w690-h362/49a7c9d2233dfa8e3ae08d9fa10f53cc.png" width="690" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><p> </p><p>(PS:取其精华去其糟粕地读一下,留存这个文档,权当备份。)</p><p><br /></p><p>观尊驾这八字禀得中和之气,为人有刚有柔又喜财官有气。必得妻贤子贵。但是六亲少靠,弟兄情疏。自饮酒自还钱,自打鼓自划船。命带比肩兄弟不和。正是李广将军箭,关王刀千里独自称英豪。弟兄二三不为孤单,弟兄五六不如独宿。看君三妻命,方可得成双。若还不硬对,中路见刑伤。看你子星二三,但是头男长子有亏。必须先花后果,可免东败于齐。只是四柱生得健旺,生平丰衣足食,有个功名气象。不过文星受制,看你平常道有个昂昂气象。只是这几年运限不高。虽然不退财还须要见灾。多亏三合、天喜星化解。往后交上好运,有十年大旺,兴家创业。妻财子禄可许寿几何。 </p><p><br /></p><p>详观贵造生得旺,一生衣禄无亏,为人耿直,有救人之心,无害人之意。你有好心却无好报,可爱者印绶当权。男命印多主有寿,女命印多无子星。所以子评上说得好:满盘都是印见女贵如金,老来不问喜,再将寿元推。目下走的差运,三月六月九月小心跌卧之灾。月建财官不可冲,十冲九命反为凶。唯有辰戌丑未库,十冲九命反成功。年冲月提须离祖,冲破提纲定损妻,财星入了库不冲总不富。四柱七杀露出天干头,子评云:身强杀浅、假杀为权。杀重身轻终身有损,为人道有些聪明伶俐。只是妻命要硬对。若不硬对就有刑伤。但是这几年运限不加,要交上好运,方可买田置地。那时节百发百中。般般遂顺。四柱带了伤官,说是男命伤官格内嫌。女命伤官受孤单。伤官处伤夫子。破了伤官损寿元。看起来伤官太重,必有二夫之命,要得夫星硬对偕头到老白发齐眉。子星可许二三自古道,生男育女乃夫命所招。但是本年犯了枭食有制可以免灾,若是无制孝家人户少要行,病户房中少要去。四柱劫财太过,子评云:财源被劫父命顷。印绶被伤母早亡。印旺身弱母先亡。你正在好运时宜当父母双全,假如生在差运时,就该父在母先亡。若是母在父先亡,弟兄不宜占长,只在第二第三方好。假如占长,弟兄难靠,你弟兄只宜成单,不宜成双。若是成双内有一个不得力的,他有些七扭八扭只因比肩犯刑冲。子评上讲得明白,月上刑冲损雁行。弟兄生来不宜双。若是成双主孤单或是过房入赘方保无事。你今年年将不利,小心退财,今年大耗星坐命宫,大耗星原来是散财星,凡事要小心。自古道栏杆大耗生得差。钱财好似水推沙,东里弄来西里去。湿手拿雪不归家。你今年若是辰月无事,难逃冬月、九月要小心。夫也强妻也强,桃花柳绿正相当,五百年前同偕老,正是金鸟对凤凰。看你子星不早,先花后果正相当。若是头先长子成二三之中有伤刑。必要金水生人,方可个个得成力。生来多木多火少年就要重拜父母,假叫爷娘正禽有黄就许几子送终,寿元若干。 </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>老婆婆一生带了驿马星。劳劳碌碌不得享福,半做婆婆半做媳妇。口里说不做手里又要去拿。口里说不管手里又去烧火洗碗。天明做到夜无有多谢。天明做到晚人还说你懒。命中带了指背杀,虽得神意未得人意。饭未熟留客吃,酒未熟留人尝。当面叫你是大娘。背地人说你不贤良。颠倒叫了去。反说你短和长。当面是个贤姐姐。背地说你是个多嘴娘。六亲也冷淡,姐妹情也疏。正是高山打一望。骨肉光荡荡。年头到年尾。未见亲戚面。一世人自爬自做自撑持。好似墙上挂双箩,全靠自己两公婆;墙上挂波箕,全靠自己两夫妻。这几年运限低,算你三十六上有一枭。四十六上有蹊跷。也是阴德心肠好。口慈心直保寿元。五十三上平平过。五十九有灾磨。好似黄蛇钻竹箩不死也脱层皮。杉木棺材松木底,装了别人免自己;如今命犯计罗星、三光两暗有几分。犹如墙上手机草,风吹两边倒。病又不是病,好又不得好,又道罗与计,受他的气。计与罗,受折磨。不是心疼气喘就是眼花风凉。日间是个好人,夜间是个病人,神不知鬼不觉两三天又发作。看你六十三上容易过,七十一上要斟酌。</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>大娘你这张八字看将起来,一运二岁亏了走。三运四岁亏你行。九岁十岁倒了罢。十五岁上见长大。人人说你一枝花。十人唱九人夸。说你五男并二女。我看那是白话,都是那算命先生假奉承。你自嫁到夫家去,拜堂见了愁鬼神。今年也望喜,明年也望喜。只好望个尖嘴女。又道是三月桃花放,九月菊花开。一般根在土,各自等时来。只是开得晚、谢得迟。只管放宽心,你的性情要减损,漫漫点起佛前灯,门前乞丐常施舍。升斗要公平,买卖莫亏人。化斋常常吃,阴功日日积,敬老尊贤望子孙。耐烦守过这字运。正时时来玉树天喜星,运至金鸾报好音,旺夫益子,家业茂盛,四子成立,寿元可许几何。 </p><p>谋为难遂意,说西忽想东。耳听子规九头叫。喜忧是非到,灾祸不相饶,塞翁失马无不言吉。荧火难烧湿草家。恐有官非口舌角,恰似行舟无艄家。上下许了愿心。本方土地作崇。开口多惹烦恼。莫交暗地歹人。查得月将不利,仔细忧心嚼咬、败中成,分中成。千方百计苦琢磨。数查家宅不利,人以迷成风浪。眼前七杀照命,自今又犯浮沉。寒暑灾星要小心,水急过渡宜当稳。禁放夜路少要行。查得神祈降路,方免十七天灾星。他人闲事少要管。须防无义之徒。登舟过渡稳。防于水湿之凶。深水桥边休要过渡。明月无伴少行山。上路河岸急走马,恐防跌损之灾。是非之家少要走。疾病人家少要行。烦恼等守来年运。万紫千红正是春,眼前罗计照命。求谋一轮一输。你有真心代人。人把假心代你。失财方免灾。谨防小人灾殃。酒醉卧路之人,少要交。本年月将不利,内犯五鬼作耗。家人许了愿心,过后神愿未清。过了今年之后行船又过顺风。人在迷途中,走西忽想东谋为难遂意,目前多犯口舌,虽效张公百忍。闲事少管,谨防无义之朋。月令罗计入限,下到某月某岁交节喜气浓浓歹人退,好人逢财喜双美,万紫千红。正是万物静观皆自得。四时佳美与人同。过了九月之后内外月正辉又朦胧。小心阴人口舌。慎之平地官讼。脱尽正气行船财遇顺风。 </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>财源左来右去,生意一轮一输。目下运犯五鬼星。月将支内有枭神。问财兮如风雨,谋利兮似灰尘。眼前七杀照命,目前又犯浮沉,寒暑灾不小,登舟过渡少行开口,多惹烦恼慎交暗地歹人。恐防平地生波浪,稳步带虚惊。昨夜春风浪悠悠。一风吹来九度秋,白云内面深山秀。绿水滩头驾扁舟。玉带退还君王去。唤我三朝不回头。子牙昔日把钓钩。钩杆砍尽南山竹。不钓金鳖誓不休。抱琴未遇知音客。宝剑悬空戏稀龙。楼风阁上谁能到,自有高贤人不知。蛟龙出于大海。贤士多在深山。 </p><p>登场口诀 </p><p>圣人言道不出范围。究一理而察万端。明片言而通万物。能使知颖悟。一入门先观来意。凡问言要那心。说话中要敲打闪转。开谈处先分贵贱贤愚。洞门未开闪转而入。洞门半开,倘然而入。有问必须反答,未语不先声,机关未露少决雌雄。先千后隆,看命至宝。轻敲响卖秘理之玄机。江湖人来谈贸易,缙绅人来讲唐虞。久困志怀远达乍富。志必骄盈,草野英财。心怀霄汉,廊庙达士。志慕山林,宝贵厌言刑战。贫贱喜夸晚发富近贵。愚民屡烦征徭家,纵亲乎而吝且怀,发业为一身而败。好风流,好奢侈,家无赀喜嫖赌者,手内常空。白手求财无聚。空手问利人必聪明。外奢华者,而内无余赀。父懦子弱,有蛊斡之财。父出倍客,因子拙仆。出来答语,必多能言。椿萱少靠。必因橖棣之多交。三十无妻,无为定矣。幼失严君,那有现成规模。中年无子,非兰房之寂寞。即早半忙奔波。继儿赘婿,必因早亡父母。重重活离凶死。非子多孙。广有痴聋咽哑之辈。骄子多忏逆。滛妇必败夫。君子守贫常存礼义。小人乍富目中无人。来人年貌若曾参未免小人。再问父母生庚是非来审功夫。水火刀兵缢,富贵审时辰。荆剌妨兰砌砖瓦变玉石,点头即便是,摇头快转风。父来问子许子富贵。子来问父,其中定有缘故非灾即讼,必远出。参差两人并肩立同,必为谋事。挽手即负耳非贵非死,僧泥到审问,答洋混答,中间有蹊跷,眉促眼红,戚戚定然有事,其中必有参差,若是比牙常将日时混,手内荷叶扇,必是单身汉。身上衣似索,公差仔细看。三年入门,四五多官非,看他如何答,阡官刑及刑害。远听旁人语,点头即便是。夫来问妻,无灾必有喜。妻来问夫,非灾必远行。人人后运好。个个子孙贤。家家小儿贵。户户妻儿贤。老者寿长延。童稚这辈,不可直言荣华、内妨夭折颠死之疾。岂可必言其死。恐凶中有吉。兴讼不可许财,见官岂可乱言刑。九流高士钱财虚花。遇拙村夫,丰衣足食。延教之辈,家常寒,一艺之夫财不绝,僧道之辈苟合拐带,棣卒之徒,朋友无情,富贵不长。嫉姤狡猾,定惹世人嫌。耸肩谄笑,贯好为媒作保,舌尖嘴快必是咬弄是非之人。遇达士休叹哑板,逢知音莫泄真机。敲打闪转,用喜作嗔,离合悲欢似生成。要紧处何须几句。遇知音戏说泥金。不识变通。如枯山无泉。将长作短,可令死木能行。一抽一插,看他如何答。傍人点首即是佳。法若无动静。笔管沾又沾,抬头看一看。喜怒不见分,转舌快生端。暗记阴阳妙,谨记诸家诀,方是江湖客。熟记玄中妙。功成只一笑。 </p><p><br /></p><p>文学贤士,莫知至而至者命也。莫知为而为者天也。公伯寮其如命何。列位诸公我屡见人说诗词歌赋。谈天论地,乃如此之人,看命必不高。像那半夜起来连主人家饭钱都不还就走,不说这样大话,如今我自晓得照道理看命。不但那道中好高的人未必个个都高,个个都好说大话,你看那卖酒的门上帖幅对联云:酒气冲天,飞鸟闻香,糟粃落水,龙鱼知味,又有卖酒的门上贴幅对联云,罗汉三杯软脚,金刚一壶头麻;又有裁缝门前帖幅对字云:金剪剪开双凤舞,银针引出独龙来。阎王拱手分贵贱,宰相摇头说半仙。个个说大话,我就不晓得说大话,只晓得以道理看命。十张八张要断得七八张准。那不准的,难道是我守着生的不成,只恐时辰不确。我每日三张四张来请接我。 </p><p><br /></p><p>太阳当道显神灵,万神为尊。二十八宿闹崑仑,执掌风调雨顺,伏羲文王周公孔子袁天罡李淳风诸葛孔明先生,神无大小,灵者为尊,再求一卦,再占再灵。手金钱祝告天,请其神灵降凡间。春有应萌芽出土。夏有应火煆成金。秋有应黄花满地。冬有应滴水成冰。四季有应,感动尊神。神无大小,灵者为尊,乾坎艮震巽离坤兑,报这也罢了,要不从来五行不顺。能者不能。运蹇时乘不自由。金毛狮子变成牛。但是五湖明月存。何愁无处下钓钩。桃花三月放。菊花九月黄。一般根要土。各自等时来。黄河尚有澄清日。岂可人无得运时。瘦地开花晚。贫穷晚发迟。莫道蛇无脚,成龙未可知。游尽五湖并四海。走尽田广及两京。出门不带财和米。全凭子平作营生。胸中暗藏田数亩。不用耕种自然收。传读子平妙惊人。言生断死不留情。任是紫袍金带客。也须下马问前程。功欲善其事,必先利其器。含珠不吐,谁知有宝。是我学生在地下写数行字,正是抛砖引玉,聚众招贤,好似木匠门前锛锉斧锯,银匠铺内顶罐槌挕。卖酒门前三尺布,不是卖布是个招牌。是贵地大路,要道吾敝道中人。来的千千,去的万万,昨日在那集上,有一位老者,向前来问我,说天下书同文,你的怎么不同,列位诸公有所不知,叫做共炉打铁,各有刚火不同。兄弟我自幼曾读几句诗书,指望光宗耀祖,荣子封妻,性情好花酒,幸遇江湖上一个明师指教,传授子平,能知未来过去。买来绫罗要眼见。汤药用口尝。卖瓜的不说瓜苦。卖酒的不说酒酸。列位把古蹊跷,有一等人或蛇伤虎咬而死,或南或北悬梁而死或男逃避他乡而死女子产后胎前而亡。说出八字或当朝宰相或知县封君一品至九品,便知道他何年乡试,何年科甲,查出五星,知道官居几品,十张有准,引得万发张。孝顺问父母,恩爱问妻子,天下孝顺不过于父母。恩爱不过于妻子。我今在我这里,你们晓得我做的甚么生意。我有招牌,拿出来你们看,自小在学校读书。指望有个好处。谁知命运不逢辰,成了一个算命先生,初到贵地,非比那一切的,列位有贵事说来看看,再不奉承,私语是说不得的,一个说白话,悟了人大事,损了自己阴功。三种事可说实话:求财的,打官司的,讨亲的,奉承人不得;倘若奉承,岂不误了人家大事。做生意亏了本。打官司,牢狱枷锁,讨亲的人财两空。他后来归怨于我。列位不信,那位把命算一个,何是卜一卦,测一字,试试我先生如何。 </p><p><br /></p><p> </p><p>定场歌 </p><p>熟教孝为先。此理尽君言。万般皆下品,读书做高官。从来看命看卦看相看数搬一张桌子,拿一条板凳,摆几部书。规规矩矩坐下,扮成一个算命的先生。我把一张纸铺在地下,写几个字,说几句闲话,不知万物皆有一个叙头。譬如那大圣人做出四书一部。上面注:大家全凭子平作书。这也是个叙头,那一天要下雨,预先捕云变天电闪打雷,然后天终下雨。象那为官长出门,先要传点敲梆,鸣罗排执事。喝道儿。然后官免起身,这也是一个叙头,象你这地方上那做道教先生,念佛的和尚,到人家去做斋,建醮酬恩,预先把像一挂起来,法一出雷,然后叮叮当当,指书讼经,作起来,这也是卖堂的。无非是个序头。 </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>兄弟我把张纸铺在地下写几个字,是个招牌,抛砖引玉。聚众招贤。我想言不暗点,非明人所谈,谈话不明,似钝剑伤人,崑山产良玉,非卡和而不识,世上多少英雄客。若无推算也难明。公侯宰相人人所愿。贫贱寿夭人人所憎。时运造化人人一转,但迟早不同。吉凶年的有。世间人不知。当年韩信时运不至。受辱于胯下。乞食于漂母。后遇肖何荐到汉高祖驾下,扶车推轮,拜为六国丞相。招讨征杀,破大楚之师。身受三齐王之职,后来以千金相赠漂母。一呼百诺。何等幸运。这是时也运也命也。如明朝朱洪武王命蹇时之际。在那黄觉寺做和尚。衣不能遮其身,食不能饱其腹,世上那晓得他是个黄帝。后遇浙江一位先生,相他龙眼虎眉,是个盖世英雄。佐之起兵即位金陵,传位二百七十余年。出一十七个皇帝。这也是时也运也命也。时来了门板也挡不住。是非来寻我。腾云也难清闲,时几文钱,舍不得算命。一朝有了祸事,就是几两银子也是出的。故以君子常常问命。自不招凶险。遇人不明事体,年年招是惹非。古之人不知命,无以为君子也。今人安知有命乎。真真有个运。有个相法。只是为人莫忌相。一相便轻人。一相便惊人。书上说得明白。相无诀法不可乱言。有个麻衣相柳庄相,达摩相,摸骨相,端骨相,相法也说不尽。纵是那一理贯通万事,如今人行有行相,坐有坐相,吃也有吃相,人要行如流水,坐如盘石,睡如眠犬,起如浮云,这乃是在富大贵之相也。麻子也有一个相。珍珠麻,雨点麻,细米麻,海底捞鱼虾麻,菜花麻,贪酒麻,相法也讲不尽。眼睛也有个相法。龙眼人真明天子,虎眼人镇国将军。鹦鸽眼,能说会道。蛇眼人佛口蛇心、牛眼人劳力辛苦。马眼人奔走红尘。眼睛相法也讲不尽。长子也有个相,矮子也有个相,长子又长得一根笋。矮子要矮得一条礅。长子要长得壁直。矮子要矮得坠实。口说不为凭。起手见高低。说我命相看得高。乡亲们未必肯信,都是前头人吓怕了的。张的到张神仙,李的到了李神仙。卖瓜的只说瓜好,卖酒的只说酒甜,叫做般般会,件件低。我今日初到你这贵处,不晓得讲神仙二字。只晓得讲命理,人要眼见,口要尝。哧也不吓死人的话。众乡亲有命只管上前试一试看,人家命有三不要钱,九不起利。那都是相人上当的话头。及如看了命,他又要起钱,乡亲们不好意思得,自然丢几文钱,其实口中不说,心里失悔,我却有七八个不要钱,口说不为凭,待我写到纸上做个活头。那八个不要钱,乡亲们要听得明白。寻老年人无子,中年人丧妻,幼儿丧父,守寡孤独贫穷寿夭,小儿犯关煞,这是不要钱的。 </p><p><br /></p><p>我昨日在某集上有一个老者鬓须皓白。走上前来,说是先生你这也不要钱,那也不要钱,出来喝凉水,穿树皮,坐到那井边喝南风不成。我说你老人家有所不知,要钱是我明分。不要钱是我的人情。怎的不要钱,出来长见识的,总是为利,只要取得干净。只要取得公道。我要取那曹头上有骏马。架上有罗衣。怀中有幼子,脚下有姣妻。河下有船,岸上有田。取他三十不为多,五十不为少。只当那毡上支拨毫,大树上落叶,不足为难。假如那食不充口,衣不遮身,鳈寡孤独,贫穷寿取他三五文钱,就象针尖上削铁,佛面上刮金,这样钱断断乎不取。我今日备得有几张纸,你们乡亲不要害羞,只管接一张,孝顺者问于父母。恩爱者问于妻子。和睦者问于乡里,慈爱者问于子女。不害羞者问于自己本身,看看年将月将四季吉凶祸福,是非口舌等事,只管上前,不要忍口害羞。常言君子问凶不问吉,叫做看命防身宝。祸到临头悔迟。</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>江湖诗: </p><p>江湖学术今几年; 不求富贵乐清闲。 </p><p>闲来悟得琴堂里; 闷来涉水又登山。 </p><p>虽然不是黄宫客; 一日清闲一日仙。 </p><p> </p><p>今初到此地久闻贵处文学之邦,仁厚之俗,果然名不虚传。列位乡亲,休要忍口害羞,只管上前来算个命,测个字,看个月将年将,问个财喜问个买卖利息,如何列位。 </p><p><br /></p><p>今日初到贵地看个八字,不徒贪财,只徒列位四方八面的,嘴上挂一个招牌,与我传名。未必都不要钱,我只好喝凉水,穿树皮,喝南风不成。有三不要钱,那三不要钱,贫穷孤寡寿夭鳈寡孤独不要钱,目下病重身亡不取钱。若要取钱,目下行时的,寿如松柏,怀抱子,脚登妻,河下有船,岸上有田,这一般人,取他五十不为多,三十不为少。只当那毡上支拨毛,大树落叶。这样说有不知命的人聚首而言说那一块又来了一个卖当的先生,殊不知看命者如明灯指路。不看命者如黑夜推车,太平无事不问卦。祸到临身悔是迟。 </p><p><br /></p><p>祖父把我幼读诗书,奈运蹇不佳,悟习子平,好游江湖。知命者,玄中玄,妙中妙,你看世间八字,还三妻不得到老,五子不能送终。淑容美女反招愚拙之人。俊秀儿郞却配貌丑之妻。这都是命也,运也。我想孔子文章贯世,德配古今,存困于陈蔡,厄于桓公。太公钓鱼谓水。买臣五十得公乡。平仲身无三尺,封为齐国贤臣。韩信力无缚鸡得为汉邦大将。自古圣贤,难脱阴阳之理。近世儒士,岂能逃出否太之外。你看天不得时,风雨不均。地不得时,草木不生。人不得时,命运不亨。讲命者,要提用神。取病药,年冲月令须离祖同,日破提纲定损妻。日时暗破妻子克。无情冲破一生低。子平云,伤官资财,福自天来。可惜贵造带刑冲,照时变通三可也。 </p><p><br /></p><p>有问须要反答,未明不可先声,入门休问荣枯事。观儿容颜便得知。眼观六路,耳听八方,点头高张帆。摇头快转风,眼生不吐黄,只怕下苦刚,人人得运好,个个小儿高。常挂命之学,自有天然之理,而玄关一窍参透机。切莫据书执法,最要见机生情,得之于心应之于手。举行端正,言语安详,一入门来先看来意。未开口先要拿心。千隆敲卖,此乃玄机之妙耳。日暖风和其事暖而卜吉,轰雷聚雨,其事迫而断凶。洞门半开,借言便入。机关未露。莫先言实。先观那为本,那为末。后知谁是主,谁是谁是宾。刁人常招官讼,愚人最怕差役。初贵者气必骄。久困者志未伸。草野英才胸怀霄汉。廊庙达士志慕山林。贫穷常喜后发,富贵美爱长年,幼失父母,岂有现成受用。晚年得子,多是半世虚花,荆妻怀不中意入赘。该因早亡亲。妻年似女,填房再娶。妻年似母苟合成亲。子象孙,偏房所出。子象长,二三可许。妻克重重必有凶死离活。生子叠叠定有残疾。遇顽敲妻原是问子,须防无子。贫穷既主多儿,继外成家年少克妻。必有凶死。年老一子必是螟蛉。少壮之人不久困,中年无子莫言孤。若妻年老忽然问子,许他义子送终。若看孩童须防难养,过继方许成人。年老在公门,应无贵子贤孙。家贫早亡亲,必然两姓成家。椿堂情疏,该因萱草凋枯。桂子漂流,多因兰房寂寞。决新疾即言交节。说旧病,痞气伤行,人多有阻隔走失,便许归迟,求子累许一二,合婚定许成就,兴词不可许利,被告未必言凶,胆大之人语言轻狂。易反易复。多颠多险。囚犯许他皇恩大赦。看官非许他内中多鬼。耸肩谄笑为非作害之人。轻言浪语咬事搬非之人。福德君子,衙前必不官事。同行问讼。此人必是干证。安心要告见严官。必定招形俗。夫奢华者,志气昂昂,久日必败;好赌者,常无足食。好酒者,终须受困。勤苦之人,后运必发。性情风流,家业必败。骄儿忤父淫妇欺夫。穷困者,许他便改迁移。富贵者许他谨防火盗。年高之人,必许跌卧之灾。性急忙忙,断他不测之祸。先来问卦,须防鬼神不测之祸。头先看命且防黄泉之人,推时不真,即便知矣。言祖业十有九离。说六亲百无一靠。人人亲戚情疏。个个朋少力。行船防水厄。染房防失脱。看高功名许老当益壮。颠言倒语,为人心事难明。轻言寡语,定然有始无终。浮燥者,常见是非性急者,多受营辱。若到人家不同,街市察言观色,见景生情。观祸殃,就知他那年有喜。见奠章,就知他那年刑伤。堂上挂符,感愿未还,挂符无制,定伤小口。父问子,非名即外。子问父必有原故。夫问妻非灾即有喜。妻问夫,不病即外出。行路端正,斯人必有文章。颠颠倒倒,必是浮燥之人。面目艳色斯人必富。形容枯槁,此人必贫。脸上黑色不多主颠沛流离。相貌风俗润满,是富豪之家。看小儿许功名。老人许他年高。肩抱衣被,挑担之人。身达口袋执鞭之土,穿油衣不匏烟而卖肉卖油。汲破鞋不游手好闲。好赌者,莫以衣破而言贫。莫以裳好而言富。眼观六路耳听八方,心通千古,学富五车,则成老江湖矣。 </p><p><br /></p><p> 吹点卖法 </p><p><br /></p><p>一局棋下老了王乔,五言诗吟穷了贾岛,不爱诸子窗前草,不爱玄都洞里桃,不说王子晋的凤箫,不说蔗姐家的茶灶,休夸石崇豪富。范丹贫穷,彭祖寿高,休论颜回寿夭,不表不讲天文地理。不讲三略六韬。只想会几个知已朋友,谈谈笑笑玩玩耍耍,嘻嘻哈哈。 </p><p><br /></p><p>一要看来意。二要照事情,三要敲东及西。四要眼中无人。五要轻言慢语。六要宗宗卖清。众位这个八字,原要讲个道理出来。我今日把这个八字道理讲给众位听听。象这个八字,原来是个人的样子。怎么是个人的样子,譬如这个八字有个年月日时,年上两个字,象人的脑壳,时上两个字象人的脚,所以八字是与人一样的。</p><p>只要生得周正,明有眼睛,有鼻孔,有耳朵,终是一个人。倘若去了一双眼睛,就不好看了,纵然是个人。到底是瞎眼。所以八字与人一样,说八字于人一样,又怎么看他的好反。譬如这个八字写将出来,往上下一看,日主旺相,有格局,有用神,有刚有柔。这就是一个好八字。象这个好八字,又有几个。只要有衣、有食,有妻,有子也就是好的了。象我今在外飘父母别妻子,难道就没别的生意,只有测安算命好讨饭吃,也是八个字见捆住了。今看命看得神机妙算。测字测得神钦鬼服。众位不过只称得一个先生,看命看得准,测字测得灵,还有别的甚么奉承在那里。但弟在外,每到各州府县,大小集场,也看了几年命,莫说看得多,一天只算看十个。</p><p>十天也就只算一百个。每来看命之人,将他八字排出来,不是长长的瘦子,就矮矮的胖胖子。不是个克妻八字;就是个克子八字,不是克妻克子,就是劳劳碌碌奔走红尘。将他的八字细查往后运气还有指望,倘若后运不好。一身穷到老。象这不行时的,我也不知看了多少,这不行时的八字就与他说几句直话,他就老嗔我,说先生你看得不准。弟就奉承他几句,也无益。</p><p>象以往来看命的先生,今年看命,许他明年发财,其实到明年又和今年一样非是他全看不准,乃是奉承之过,众位象这奉承话,只好哄孩子不吃盐,和尚讨婆娘,说过就是;但如今人,爱奉承人最多,说他不好,他就不欢喜,殊不知君子问祸不问福。</p>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-80728783595744932362022-11-27T07:52:00.004-08:002022-11-27T18:17:21.860-08:00《易界骗术大观》<p><br /></p><sr-rd-content class="highlighter-context" dangerouslysetinnerhtml="[object Object]" data-reactid=".0.3" style="background-color: #fcf5ed; color: #333333; font-family: -apple-system, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft Yahei", "Lantinghei SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Sans Serif", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 1.6rem; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px auto; padding: 20px 0px; user-select: text; width: 700px; word-break: break-word;"><h1 style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; text-align: center; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">《易界骗术大观》</h1><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh62XmJcsi6LNIsIJU08vHN0Qtdzf1HIJ4LVCztnO4pSDRvatU9lnzXNzIx_YxcCFQvF9sgpQ82ev29ezIZU6Y9cVZgFYA7HYlEt9AWjtbd3ML6LKBohxHgdEX1XAz6ic1-EVCq1kG76G1MMcqvPJmDDwUsMgZ5ppUsfEf7yym15X5DewpecqbbNHGl3Q/s1260/1584698446522892.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="840" data-original-width="1260" height="472" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh62XmJcsi6LNIsIJU08vHN0Qtdzf1HIJ4LVCztnO4pSDRvatU9lnzXNzIx_YxcCFQvF9sgpQ82ev29ezIZU6Y9cVZgFYA7HYlEt9AWjtbd3ML6LKBohxHgdEX1XAz6ic1-EVCq1kG76G1MMcqvPJmDDwUsMgZ5ppUsfEf7yym15X5DewpecqbbNHGl3Q/w709-h472/1584698446522892.jpg" width="709" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; text-align: center; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"><span style="color: black; font-family: "Microsoft YaHei"; font-size: medium; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: left;">(PS:取其精华去其糟粕地读一下,留存这个文档,权当备份。)</span></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">易界大师,为了骗取天下易友的信任,为了骗取天下易友的金钱,绞尽脑汁,精心策划了种种广告骗局骗术,骗尽了天下易友,但天下易友又因对易学预测功能的盲目崇拜,而又屡屡上当受骗却不能自觉。我吕文艺虽无济世之心,但却仍有些许救人之念,是故,今日再次冒 “被天下易报易刊群起而诬陷攻击” 之险,刊发这篇“易学界广告骗术绝技大荟萃”,以明示天下易友。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第一招:在易报易刊中大量刊发学员写的赞扬信。这一招叫 “借刀杀人”,也是大师们要借部分被蒙骗学员的违心赞扬信这把“刀”,来“杀”(骗取) 那些不知情学员的金钱。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第二招:在易报易刊中宣扬自己是 “*** 名人的第 XX 代传人”。这一招叫“借尸还魂”,也就是“大师” 们要借 “古人” 这个尸壳,将自己的灵魂附在 “尸壳” 上,然后幻化成 “人” 形来 “吞吃” 天下易友的。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第三招:在易报易刊中宣扬自己是 “某某名人的亲戚弟子朋友”。这一招叫“移花接木”,也就是“大师” 们要把 “某某名人” 这朵 “花” 移接到自己这根枯木桩子上,然后欺骗那些只顾看 “花” 而不顾观察本质的天下易友的。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第四招:在易报易刊中宣扬自己是 “某某擂台的金奖获得者”。这一招叫“无中生有”,也就是“大师” 们在虚构的谁也不知道的 “擂台” 上一个人唱了一段梦中 “独角戏”,然后宣布自己是“冠军”,其目的还是想用“冠军”“金奖获得者” 这些 “花环” 来欺骗天下易友。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第五招:在易报易刊中大肆宣扬自己摆的 “擂台” 是战无不胜的。这一招叫 “瞒天过海”,也就是“大师” 们在自己空设的擂台上摆出各种架势吸引他人(欺瞒天下易人),其目的还是 “过海” 骗天下易友的金钱。因为在这种 “擂台” 上,绝对不会有人去和擂主过招。因为这种擂台既无严密的公证,又无严密的评判原则,也没有严密的操作程序,更没有畅通的宣传渠道来公布打擂结果,在这种擂台上打擂,就等于是一个聪明人在暗夜里,到荒野中去和一只疯狗咬架分胜负,意义何在呢?</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第六招:在易报易刊中大量刊登 “名人名士” 对其预测理论预测技术和人品的赞美文章,这一招叫 “狼狈为 *”,也就是大师们在各自的易报易刊中互相“吹捧”,你“吹” 我,我也 “吹” 你,“你我”同骗易友。如果你不信我之言,请翻开易界大师们的宣传资料看一看,看一看是不是在互相“吹捧”,便能明我言之确否。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第七招:在易报易刊中大肆宣扬自己的理论和技术是 “祖传”“和尚传”“道士传”“隐士传”。这一招叫“虚张声势”,也就是大师们明知自己的理论和技术是“银样蜡枪头”,不堪一击,但为了骗天下易友,便不得不把“祖宗”“和尚”“道士”“隐士” 这些虎皮,搬出来披在自己身上,以吓唬天下易友达其骗人目的。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第八招:在易报易刊中大肆宣扬自己是 “正宗”“第一”,这一招叫“挥水摸鱼”,也就是大师们明知天下易友不知道谁是正宗谁是第一,但为了骗名骗财,便标榜吹嘘自己是“正宗”“第一”,以把该门学术之水搅浑了,然后乘“鱼儿(天下易友)” 不辩东西南北时,便行 “摸鱼(骗财)” 之事。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第九招:在易报易刊中大肆宣扬自己的预测事例如何如何准确神奇,而绝对不敢系统地公开自己的预测理论,这一招叫 “美人计”,也就是用这一个神奇准确的“美人(预测事例)”,来诱使天下易友买其资料,参加其学习班,以达其用“美人” 实施骗人钱财之目的。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第十招:过去在易报易刊中大肆宣扬自己是 “博士”“大师”“教授”“专家”“学者”,而现在突然改称自己为起来平易近人诚实可信的“老师”。这一招不叫“弃恶从善”,而叫“改头换面”,也就是大师们企望通过“乔装打扮”“改头换面”,“脱下狼皮,披上羊皮” 来达其继续行骗天下易界之目的。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第十一招:在易报易刊中大肆宣扬自己为 “某某大官”“某某大富豪” 搞过预测,调过风水,效果神奇。这一招叫 “杀猴唬鸡”。也就是大师欲用“杀猴(给这些大人物预测过)” 来证明自己的预测理论和技术之高超精妙, 以达其吓唬“鸡(普通的天下易友)”,而使其听之信之,任其宰割之目的。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第十二招:在各种易报易刊中到处发表各式各样的预测实例文章,这都是 “事后诸葛亮”。这一招叫“天女散花”。也就是大师们欲通过“散花(在各种小报小刊发表众多文章)” 这种方式,来促使天下易友 “眼乱神迷”,诱使天下易友上当受骗。因为如果你厉害非常,就应该把完整的理论体系拿出来让天下易友鉴赏,而不要玩这种“耍流星” 的小把戏。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第十三招:自己 “文不能写,武不能测”,而花钱买几个“对周易一无所知的所谓易界” 托儿(文明话叫 “伯乐”,这些“托” 美其名叫 “伯乐”,也可能是易界名人)写文章“拜托” 自己,这一招叫 “狐假虎威”。也就是大师们欲借用“虎(易界名伯乐,名托儿)” 之威名,以使自己或其理论迅速在易学界 “火” 起来,从而达其欺世盗名之目的。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第十四招:在易报易刊上到处写文章编造例证(而不从理论上完整分析)攻击别人的预测理论,而从来不把自己的预测理论完整地写出来介绍给天下易友,这一招叫 “狂犬吠日”,也就是大师们欲通过“旺旺旺” 的狂咬 “太阳” 来引起天下易人对其 “狗” 的关注,从而达其 “我敢咬太阳”“证明我厉害” 之目的,“证明我厉害”便可 “咬(骗)” 天下易友了。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第十五招:在易报易刊中宣扬自己是 “博士”“大师”“学者”“奇人”“怪人” 等等,这一招叫 “吹牛”。因为易学界从来就没有一个合法的全国性的易学机构和组织,公开地进行过全国范围内的“职称评定”,即使是有些易学组织和机构进行了“职称评定”,那也是“一家之评”,为了“赢利” 而已,根本不是像全国卫生系统评定 “医生资职”,教育系统评定“教师资职” 那样公开透明。所以说,易学界的 “职称”、“名号” 来源只有两种:一种是 “自封”,因为查无实据;二种是“花钱买”,因为国内外有些易学组织机构专靠卖“职称”“名号” 来赚钱。由此可以十分肯定的说:易学界的职称,名号都是 “吹牛”“瞎编” 的,都是用来欺骗易友的。因为如果你技术超群,根本不须用那么多名号,职称来装扮自己,“浓妆艳抹”只是因自己有致命的 “缺陷”,害怕别人发现自己的缺陷,而“清水出芙蓉,天然去雕饰” 才能证明自己的 “无瑕” 或即便 “有瑕” 也是无伤大雅。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;"></p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">第十六招:在易报易刊中大肆宣扬自己是 “世外高人”“隐逸之士”“不图名利” 等等,这一招有一个十分难听的名字 ---- 叫 “掩耳盗铃”。因为“大师” 们既然是 “世外高人”“隐逸之士”“不图名利” 那就不应该到处抛头露面,到处发广告宣传自己的 “威名”,如此做法,不是“掩耳盗铃” 又是什么呢?到处抛头露面,到处发广告宣扬自己,如此做法,不是为了 “名利” 又是为了什么呢?这不是 “掩耳盗铃,自欺欺人” 吗?如此做法,不是为了 “骗人” 又是为了什么呢?</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">易学界 “神人” 辈出,骗术也时刻 “翻新”。天下易友当明鉴。我吕文艺也只能是就现时易界广告骗术进行归类总结。易友凡接到广告宣传资料及网站宣传上,只要其有“易学界广告宣传编术绝技大荟萃” 之一种 “绝招” 者,就应当留神;有其二种 “绝招” 者,就应当怀疑其真实性;有其三种 “绝招” 者,就应当赶快付之一炬“敬鬼神而远之”,否则上当受骗就确定无疑了。</p><p style="float: inherit; font-size: 1.6rem; letter-spacing: 2px; line-height: 1.8; margin: 0px 0px 1.2em; user-select: text; word-break: break-word;">最后,我吕文艺呼吁:易界各位 “神人” 再发广告宣传资料时,请不要再玩 “花招” 了,只有老老实实将自己的理论体系公开,让天下易友去检验真伪才是唯一出路。否则,只有死路一条!也只有不玩“花招”,只有老老实实地将自己的理论系统地公开,才能促进易学争鸣的发展,才能促进易学事业的进步,才能赢得天下易友之心。否则,还是只有死路一条!</p></sr-rd-content>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-11662120208303414732022-11-27T00:13:00.003-08:002022-12-01T16:31:19.153-08:00 《江湖秘本--英耀篇》<p style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"> 《江湖秘本--英耀篇》</span></p><p style="text-align: center;"><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><p style="text-align: left;">(PS:我对算命地理解是中国人自己的“心理医生”,这本书讲的是如何察言观色做好心理辅导。取其精华去其糟粕地读一下,留存这个文档,权当备份。)</p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvYVYjPnM6bjZoz5Ydv9O7SD97qIFlQDYCGX9Z_VaJZDOWV0UXgYZLHmgZcaeJlWmHcBZX99fe7hdQCQh0vcc-ZBmuesF9IlnyjuJzuS-mvcRL7BiKHQjtwseH3v54wixScQhcavT-f8BpMwexyFYCJj5J10g4xRmouItconmJosSqNhwJsNM7GOPbFw/s1188/bzsm.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="575" data-original-width="1188" height="317" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhvYVYjPnM6bjZoz5Ydv9O7SD97qIFlQDYCGX9Z_VaJZDOWV0UXgYZLHmgZcaeJlWmHcBZX99fe7hdQCQh0vcc-ZBmuesF9IlnyjuJzuS-mvcRL7BiKHQjtwseH3v54wixScQhcavT-f8BpMwexyFYCJj5J10g4xRmouItconmJosSqNhwJsNM7GOPbFw/w654-h317/bzsm.jpg" width="654" /></a></div><br /><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">按:此《英耀篇》是江湖术士不传之秘,达到了中国“揣摩”术心理学的巅峰,一针见血,入木三分!只要稍微懂点算命术的基本术语及原理,再将此《英耀篇》背得滚瓜烂熟,行走江湖为人算命消灾等,不愁搞不到银子,骗不到女色。若算命的真功夫差些,最好打一枪换一个地方。若算命术的功夫深些,再结合江湖另一秘诀《扎飞篇》,运用炉火纯青,加上巧舌如簧,使政界要员、商场巨贾趋之若骛,就可一夜暴富,并能名满天下,长期屹立不倒,跻身“预测大师”之行列。当然,这些都还要加上李宗吾《厚黑学》中的精髓——“脸皮厚、心子黑”才行。</span><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />认清《英耀篇》的实质,它并不是真正的周易“预测”,而是打着预测相命的招牌来行骗,套取人家钱财。当然,不少正统的命相师也有意无意在运用其中的一些“技巧”,一些人则根本不从提高预测技能作手,根基浮浅,也能“算”得很准,其实不是他算出来的,而是你自己无意中泄露了自己的底细,所以他们也能套住一些人乖乖将钞票奉上,对“大师”敬若神明。不少大字识不了几个的巫婆、神汉和那些粗知周易皮毛的家伙,居然能远近闻名,千百里外也有人开着小车去求算,于是被人越吹越神,除略有邪通者外,大多都在运用下面这套把戏。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />每个人都生活在自己的小天地,被封闭起来,因而不能了解别人与自己相通的共同人生体验。一旦算命先生拿别人的人生体验反映你的人生时,你会因“算得准”而感到奇怪,其实这没有什么奇怪,也用不着感谢算命先生。他指出的是大家(指同一阶层同一性别同一年龄段的人)共同特征。他的准确推断是建立在共性基础上的。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />《英耀篇》告诉江湖术士,人是可以被欺骗的,欺骗是可以成功的,只是深谙世道,机智灵活,随机应变。因为一:大部分人是相信天命的,是相信鬼神的,相信冥冥中有一种力量在左右着人的命运;二:世态炎凉,人心不忘利欲,人生不会一帆风顺,人的命运发展有一定之势。江湖相士在长期的算命活动中积累了丰富的观人经验,形成了一整套的算命技巧,这些技巧都是行之有效的骗术。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />玩熟斯篇,能做到“鬼神莫测”、“任意纵横”、“四海扬名”。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />入门先观来意,既开言切莫踌躇。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(求卦问卜的人一进来,一定要凭着他的衣着相貌、言行举止,洞察他来算命的主旨,明了他心里在想些什么,怀着什么样的动机来求教于你。在这一点弄清之前,你先不能轻易发表言论。一旦认准了对方意图,觉得判断无误,就不应犹豫,迟疑不决。相命先生开口,最忌彷徨不定,吞吞吐吐。这种欲言又止的神态,会让人认为你连自己都缺乏自信,更不能取信于他人了。所以“切莫踌躇”,踌躇意味着信誉的消失,失去了吸引求测者并控制对方的基础力量。根据经验,对方进门之后,先不要轻易下结论,可装模作样排出八字,念念有词如子丑寅卯之类,一副老谋深算的样子,然后——啪!开口三句话就让他怵立当场,惊为神人。替人相命,命师的头三句话是至关重要的,如果三句话至少对了两句,你就牢牢抓住了对方,对方哪有不举白旗的)天(父)来问追(子)欲追贵,追来问天为天忧。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(父亲问儿女,个人希望儿女有个好的前途,望子成龙,盼子富贵;或者儿女学习不佳,或者儿女早恋影响学业,或者儿女谈了恋爱做父亲的不太喜欢这个未来的儿媳或女婿等;或者儿女生意蚀了本,看今后如何;或者儿女出门在外,是否平安等。子来问父母,无外乎父母当官,能否再升;父母贪污受贿,会不会翻船;父母生病,病情结果如何;父母官非,能否化解,总之多数是有病有灾等不祥之光。以上诸等,若不能明确揣摩出来,不得已再运用“哄、吓、诈”三招,对方哪有不据实以言的,剩下的事情就好办多了。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />八(妻)问七(夫),喜者欲凭七贵,怨者实为七愁。七问八,非八有事,定然子息艰难。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(老婆问老公,无外乎老公前程如何,官运如何,财运如何,在外嫖妓或养小情妇等如何,或下岗后职业如何等。其实女人最好哄了,往好的方面去说,坏事也能变成好事。比如他官运亨通,财运大发等,或在外有女人是好事,不然您会被克死等;或老公蚀了财或遇小人等等东拉西扯,随机应变,越说越象真的。妻问其夫,如果满面带喜兴冲冲而来,那她的丈夫可能有官运、有福禄或横财,至少她希望如此,满面愁容而带怨气者,肯定是为“七愁”之事而来:无子、淫佚、不事父母公姑、口舌多言、盗窃、妒忌、恶疾。夫问妻,多数情况是问生子、淫行、恶疾、是不是要离婚等事。)<br style="user-select: text;" />士子问前程,生孙(商贾)为近古(近况好不好)。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(读书人来问命算卦,多半是为了功名前程,希望有飞黄腾达之日,光宗耀祖之时;商人来问卜,则因为近来生意不好的缘故。怎样进一步判断这些人的来意呢,就是抓其特征,见下)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />叠叠问此事,定然此事缺;频频问原因,其中定有因。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(以上四句,“百姓日用而不知”,真是令人拍案叫绝!一个叠叠,一个频频,已把求卜者的急切心情和盘手托出,他们所问的,正是他们心事所在。他们所希望的,正是他们所缺少的!他们想探询寻找出原因来,那么这里面定然有名堂。你相命的,就要在上面做文章,牢牢地吸引诱惑住来问者。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />一片真诚,自说慕名求教,此人乃是“一哥”。笑问请看我贱相何如?此人非火底(有权有势的人物),即是“畜生”!砂砾丛中辨金石,衣冠队里排鱼龙(下缺四句)。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(还要善于区分下面两种人:如果脸上一片真诚之色,自己介绍说,是慕我前来求卜问卦者,这种人多数是信神信命信卦的“一哥”——即虔诚的问卜求卦者。如果满口浅笑,装模作样,故意说请问我的贱相如何,那么,这种人不是有钱有势的人,就是专门来向你挑衅、捣蛋、败坏你声誉的轻薄之徒。在前来算命的人群里,有富贵官宦之人装穷卖傻前来相命,以此考你;也有穷愁潦倒之人,冒充富贵之人前来试你;或者是不怀好意的同行,或者是看了两本命书自认为了不起的家伙别有用心的前来考核你,存心踢馆给你难堪。你一定要在砂砾丛中辨认出是金还是石,在一大群前来相命的人流中识别出是龙还是鱼。不然,就是闹出笑话,丢“周易预测学”的脸。)<br style="user-select: text;" />僧道从清高,不忘利欲。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(继续阐述上面的思想观点,教授相命者从更高的层次,即从来人的外表、谈吐、性格特征、心理倾向、命运趋势、人生动态作尽一步识别,洞察他们来问卜求卜的意向。因为没有这种识别和洞察,就无所谓看相算命,所以秘本言犹未尽,不厌其烦,恣意发挥,务求淋漓尽致。因为社会是复杂的,人生是复杂的,仅仅分析父子、夫妻、穷人、富人读书人和“一哥”是远远不够的。文章分析说:和尚、道士尊从为僧道,表在上清高寡欲,脱离凡尘世俗,实际上他们念念不忘的仍是私利欲望。那些“修炼”气功的凡人,那些自鸣清高的教授、学者,那些什么家什么家之类,亦不过都是些利欲之徒。天下人熙熙攘攘,攘攘熙熙,皆在为“名”、“利”二字而已矣)<br style="user-select: text;" />庙廊达士,志在山林。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(那些身居高位的达官贵人,统治阶级,为“人民”服务的“父母官”等等,别看嘴面上冠冕堂皇,一心为公,其实个个都很贪婪,希望爵禄更丰,希望以权谋私搞更多的钱而不被察觉。只有真正的开明之士,才有志于功成名就后归隐山林,清白退休。)<br style="user-select: text;" />初贵者志极高超,久困者志无远大。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(刚风发迹的显贵,考上或正在就读高校者,上党校学习者,或新官上任者,或投机倒把官商勾结而暴发者,他们得志便猖狂,欲望膨胀,飘飘然,器宇轩昂,趾高气扬。而那些屡试不第,穷困潦倒,生意蚀本之人,有才而不被重用者,因为长期压抑不得志,人穷志短,才不会志向远大,欲壑难填。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />聪明之子,家业常寒。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(聪明的人想出人头地,却常常因为聪明反被聪明,受到社会与同仁排挤,才能得不到重用,反而家境贫寒。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />百拙之夫,财终不匮。(笨拙之人,由于他们欲望不高,勤勤恳恳,反而不缺乏生活来源,日子过得自足有余。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />眉精眼细,白手兴家之人。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(那些眉目前流露出自豪神情,看上去目光远大,精明能干,朴素而带有金银首饰的人,很可能是白手起家的老板。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />碌碌无能,终身工水(职工、贫穷)之辈。</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: large;">(只的那些无能之辈,或不会阿谀奉承、钻营苟苟的家伙,只能当个贫穷的做工人。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />破落户穷极不离鞋袜,新发家初起好炫金饰。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(那些破落户的特征是:白嫩肉,精神憔悴,衣饰寒酸,仍然穿鞋套袜不打赤脚,现代社会或可能是衣着毕挺,行为做作,腰上皮带是破旧的,脖上领带是皱褶的,脚上皮鞋是破旧或没擦的,领口衬衫是花的,鼻上眼镜片是脏的,腕上的手表是廉价的。那些新发迹的富人特征是:尽管穿着平常如旧,但是喜欢炫耀自己新买来的金玉饰物,人一阔,脸就变,现代社会还有可能是手里捏个大哥大,动辄“喂喂喂”叫个不停,生怕人家不知道他有手机……不管何种表现,总之有意无意地“炫耀”是其特征。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />神暗额光,不是孤孀亦弃妇。妖姿媚笑,倘非花底(妓女)定宠姬。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(神色黯然,面容愁闷但额头光滑细腻,衣饰华丽的,不是富人的遗孀,就是被抛弃的贵妇,或者不被官员和富商宠幸的情妇。妖冶、放荡、打扮得花枝招展,言笑风骚的,不是红粉妓女,就是官员富商的宠妾、情妇)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(中缺两句)满口好对好,久居高位;连声是是是,出身卑微。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(满口“好”或“对”的,他可能身居高位;连声称“是、是、是”的,他可能出生卑微,是个小人物。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />面带愁容而心神不定,家有祸事。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(面带愁容而又心神不定,恍恍惚惚,带神经质的,家里一定发生了不幸的事。)<br style="user-select: text;" />招子(眼睛)闪烁故作安祥,祸发自身。<br style="user-select: text;" />(若眼神恍惚不定,言语吞吞吐吐,精神不集中,内心惊慌而又故作镇定,则肯定是他自身干下的恶行而东窗事发了。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />好勇斗狠,多招横死。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(喜欢惹事生非,逞强好胜,殴斗成性,心狠手毒的人,多半身遭横祸,死于非命。)<br style="user-select: text;" />怯懦无能,当受人欺。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(生性怯懦,自视低能的人,一定受人欺侮,终日只能衰声叹气。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />志大才疏,终生咄咄空抱恨。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(好高骛远,眼高手低,志大才疏的人,一辈子过得很窘迫,活得很累,却只能终身抱恨,郁郁寡欢。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />才偏性执,不遭大祸亦奇穷。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(才气性情非常偏颇固执,钻牛角尖,撞了南墙亦不回头的人,即使不遭大临头大祸,也会异常贫穷,日子过得十分艰难。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />治世重文学之士,乱世发草泽英雄。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(如果处于太平盛世,社会稳定繁荣,那么饱学之士或有专业技术之人会得到重用,算卦时须认定这种人是前途远大的。如果处于乱世,则出草莽英雄的居多,暴发户或敛不义之财的居多,比如现在改革开放,大字不识两个的社会流氓,劳改犯等等一个个成了企业家,董事长,黑社会老大等,吾见过有“街娃”起家者,有扒手起家者,有摆凉粉摊起家才者,有走私起家者,有办厂生产伪劣产品起家者,有贩卖假烟起家者……算卦时这一点必须予以考虑。)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />通商大邑竞工商,穷乡僻壤争林田。(下缺四句)。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />(如果是商业发达的大城市,其争执纠纷多半是为工商之事而发,如果是在穷乡僻壤发生纷争,多半是为了争夺林田)</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />急打慢千,轻敲而响卖。隆卖齐施,敲打审千并用。十千九响,十隆九成。敲其大而推其比(兄弟),审其一而知其三。一敲即应,不妨打蛇随棍上,再敲不吐,何妨拨草以寻蛇(下缺两句)。先千后隆,无住不利;有千无隆,帝寿(愚蠢)之材。故曰:无千不响,不隆不成。学者可执其端而理其绪,学一隅而知三隅。随机应变,鬼神莫测,分寸已定,任意纵横。慎重传人,师门不出帝寿,斯篇玩熟,定教四海扬名。<br style="user-select: text;" />以上一段,讲的是看相算命的诡诈骗术,是全篇的核心部分,也是相士们认为最重要的“秘诀”。它是看相算命过程中的骗术的理论概括。按照“审、敲、打、千、隆、卖”六个字办,相士不仅可以设法掌握被相命者的底细隐私、心理状态,而且可以骗得对方目瞪口呆,佩服得五体投地,心悦诚服地投入你设下的罗网和陷阱。其招数实在是</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;">高深莫测,妙不可言。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />“急打慢千”是相命时的基本要领,就是说给人算命时,必须瞅准时机,突然发问,击中要害,陷对方于猝不及防的境地,使对方在仓促时间忘记来时的戒备心理而透露出真情实况。所谓“急打”,要有突发性,打对方一个措手不及,使其无暇自顾,从而瓦解他的心理防线,如此,不愁他不从实招来。所谓“慢千”,就是在获悉对方的“情报”后,要运用恐吓的手段,再给对方以强烈的刺激,使他惊诧、惧怕,担心有大祸临头之感。这样,他自然会求教于你,向你讨教消灾避祸的法术。算命中,对方的担心和忧虑是最好的诱饵,有了这种意思,你就可以牵着他的鼻子悠哉悠哉了。为什么“千”要慢呢?因为你要组织有条理有递进感的一套“军马”(即语言),来打击对方,语调必须做到平稳而有力,切忌急躁和语无伦次,一字一句一板一眼慢慢吐出,威严,阴森可怖,掷地有声,震慑对方的意志,粉碎他的抵抗。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />“轻敲而响卖”,就是说,在套取对方的情况时,要采取旁敲侧击的手法,不能直敲直槌,敲错地方。一敲就要敲到与对方心事有关联之处,起到敲山震虎的功效,使“虎”叫啸起来,自我暴露隐藏在深处的目标。“响卖”就是经“敲”又揣摩到对方的底细线索后,顺藤摸瓜,以肯定的语气把底牌亮出来,端出已见,使对方大为惊异并且深深地佩服你的高明。所谓“响”,就是一经探明路数,就要毫不犹豫,果断地出击直点对方的“穴位”,牢牢地抓住对方,在对方心中树立你的信念和权威感,由此,你可以左右逢源,条条道路通罗马了。“卖”,也是一种打击,是更深一层的刺激。然而,仅仅有打击和刺激,是不行的,还必须配之以“隆”,就是奉承恭维,夸赞和鼓励,给对方以希望,使他相信时来运转可以消为避祸之说,一切不幸均可化解;使他相信厄运之下,他仍是富贵命,幸运将降福于他。这一点很要紧,一个直到算命终场仍然一脸沮丧的人是不肯把更多的钱交给相命先生的。所以“卖”和“隆”要结合起来加以实施,单有卖,会把对方吓跑。你越是给他看到吉祥如意之光环,他越会乖乖地听你的“调遣”。算命结束,两者皆大欢喜,如若结局不是如此,那就失败了。同样道理,“敲打”、“审千”也必须并用不悖,缺一不可。这样自会“十千九响,十隆九成”。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />“审、敲、打、千、隆、卖”六个字怎样并用实施呢?就是秘本所述的:“敲其大而推其比(兄弟),审(察颜观色,审时度势)其一而知其三。敲即应,不妨打蛇随棍上,再敲不吐,何妨拨草以寻蛇。”接着,它总结道:“先千后隆,无往不利;有千无隆,帝寿(愚蠢)之材。故曰:无千不响,无隆不成”。最后它强调指出“学者可执其端而理其绪,学一隅而知三隅(即融汇贯通,举一反三),随机应变,鬼神莫测,分寸已定,任意纵横。”</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />把求问者的各种情况都敲清了,又经过“响卖”,这时候就可以“落千”了。“千”,其意不光指“恐吓”,还有一层意思,就是击中对方的要害,抨击其最铭心刻骨之事。如指出他的不幸遭遇,是“千”,抨击世态炎凉,社会的不公,亲戚朋友的背离抛弃,也是“千”。“千”之后要“隆”,要抚慰他,要给他描绘未来。这种预言式、希望式的隆,是给对方一种心理暗示,给予其精神力量。无千就不会有好效果,因为“千”多半是说明和非难过去,“千”得准会使对方依赖你,那么你对未来的“隆”他也就不怀疑了。这就是“无千不响,无隆不成”的道理所在。</span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-family: georgia; font-size: medium;"><br style="user-select: text;" />“审、敲、打、千、隆、卖”要兼施并用,这实质上是一套高级的算卦骗术。具体怎么运用?江湖术士心中有数,他们或者“千、隆、卖”齐施,或者“敲、打”与“审、千”结合,或者“审、千”与“隆、卖”结合,或者只使用其中的某一字,或者六个字一齐运用。总之是灵活的,视求卦者的具体情况而决定方略法术。<br style="user-select: text;" /></span><br style="background-color: #f9f9ec; font-family: Arial; font-size: 16px; user-select: text;" /></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-34704655353191101342022-11-24T17:18:00.005-08:002022-11-24T18:08:13.407-08:00【资源】RSS播客订阅源汇总+2022卡塔尔世界杯,精选1个8K直播源,19个4K直播源<p> </p><p><br /></p><p><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px;">播客 RSS Feed(getpodcast.xyz),</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text;">RSS播客订阅源汇总</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px;">,上面可以</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text;">发现</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px;">一些</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text;">优秀有趣的播客</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px;">,工具初衷是为了解决荔枝FM、喜马拉雅、微信公众号不提供订阅 RSS,或者提供的 RSS 有问题,因为喜马拉雅某些在苹果播客中的节目经常出现重复单集,收听过得节目单集再次出现在未收听中等 bug,所以作者做了这个小应用,用来抓取节目更新,并转为 RSS Feed。使用 iPhone Safari / Android 系统浏览器,打开本网页,</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text;">点击下方播客名字</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px;">,</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: inherit; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px; font-weight: bolder; user-select: text;">即可添加订阅到播客应用</span><span face="Lato, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #34495e; font-size: 15px;">,非常方便。</span></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTADD5vo4bxBBCCi45mlAWq4JZUvGg8qUtxri21YiQk8H1vdicgL1YjsvIQ2fQ5pN9u9q_QKfTtvqMiI0_LsetIYrei0wq11zhMcAN71nrrur350-12qd3t28p1Ws5T9f62u1NFLzsSge3l9VmX5tI9UlcXqUFoULIPUdTVsvS4j6W5qu7lI2K22qVEQ" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="801" data-original-width="1081" height="492" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEiTADD5vo4bxBBCCi45mlAWq4JZUvGg8qUtxri21YiQk8H1vdicgL1YjsvIQ2fQ5pN9u9q_QKfTtvqMiI0_LsetIYrei0wq11zhMcAN71nrrur350-12qd3t28p1Ws5T9f62u1NFLzsSge3l9VmX5tI9UlcXqUFoULIPUdTVsvS4j6W5qu7lI2K22qVEQ=w664-h492" width="664" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p>https://getpodcast.xyz/</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmSvPtMJgM1444NH1dHuBVhF_6QtpuisSdk4opvZPKAndZy145UiK1cO8OgwBXoBI43FzZC-01c3l7avNIK0T0DKoR9uh2CohfEPkCP7uu8I4_TF5E1uWJJX21Ac9rQYk-deoeoJYOd66kar3tGxLb8lj4WeJUu1dZTmQ1_TphIXG_n8fbx68udEmWJA" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="578" data-original-width="1080" height="541" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/a/AVvXsEjmSvPtMJgM1444NH1dHuBVhF_6QtpuisSdk4opvZPKAndZy145UiK1cO8OgwBXoBI43FzZC-01c3l7avNIK0T0DKoR9uh2CohfEPkCP7uu8I4_TF5E1uWJJX21Ac9rQYk-deoeoJYOd66kar3tGxLb8lj4WeJUu1dZTmQ1_TphIXG_n8fbx68udEmWJA=w1009-h541" width="1009" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">卡塔尔世界杯,精选1个8K直播源,19个4K直播源,包含SDR、HLG源</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
需要代理</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://raw.githubusercontent.com/youshandefeiyang/IPTV/main/main/IPTV.m3u</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
不需要代理</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/youshandefeiyang/IPTV@2.0/main/IPTV.m3u</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
CCTV16-4K-SDR源,</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://111.20.105.192:6610/000000001000/5000000008000023254/index.m3u8?channel-id=bestzb&Contentid=5000000008000023254&livemode=1&stbId=3</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">
CCTV16-4K-HLG源,</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">http://27.36.62.163:9090/live/4010.m3u8</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">抖音4K直播源:</span></span></p><p><span style="color: #0f1419;"><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">https://pull-flv-spe-l26.douyincdn.com/fantasy/stream-400220578747515574_spuhd.flv?_neptune_token=MIGoBAzQ00B4NoDxJSzxES4EgYXm7vTtpxA29Cma3E-YIngk71BeIr1VmYUw8kjRA1YmzzdX8c5MdOBjTNDJIfP5HyH8_a3-IuE2jMhhuplbVY77Xll2LsUe46QkYP1s9jCLtX-S2buhaE-A9-QQi0FQuq1msqF9vVjnoVZemlS9E31i6T9aTD4crmfoD0IhQd2BD9DAorhHBBC1IhNO7nQ5xQ0I0IsHvgQS&expire=637b8b2b&sign=e653340c65cc192bfaa88582122d77a5&abr_pts=-1800</span></span></p><p><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #1d9bf0;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #1d9bf0;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyNL2WAJgT70kEH8dbNyJ_ZbOsStVi9YEHEu5vI_MMwuvW_JqaevxW2dsTsLBy7thqmOenMY9Ou5OL_jUpEHYm1hOBTtONJ6U3_KkI_Bg_ZS0VycM850yE-nIoFd1bjgOq0knTkSS4yYVziMk7B3LMB1hQYzGq-HjIs-GL3zGi3IqNPyBfngb2Fo4Fsg/s6140/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%9D%AF%E6%99%82%E9%96%93%E8%A1%A8.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="6140" data-original-width="1080" height="3143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyNL2WAJgT70kEH8dbNyJ_ZbOsStVi9YEHEu5vI_MMwuvW_JqaevxW2dsTsLBy7thqmOenMY9Ou5OL_jUpEHYm1hOBTtONJ6U3_KkI_Bg_ZS0VycM850yE-nIoFd1bjgOq0knTkSS4yYVziMk7B3LMB1hQYzGq-HjIs-GL3zGi3IqNPyBfngb2Fo4Fsg/w550-h3143/%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E6%9D%AF%E6%99%82%E9%96%93%E8%A1%A8.png" width="550" /></a></span></div><span face="TwitterChirp, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif" style="color: #1d9bf0;"><br /><span style="font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span><p></p><div>2022卡塔尔世界杯赛程表<br />第一轮赛程:<br />11月21日18点:塞内加尔vs荷兰<br />11月21日21点:英格兰vs伊朗<br />11月22日0点:卡塔尔vs厄瓜多尔<br />11月22日3点:美国vs威尔士/苏格兰/乌克兰<br />11月22日18点:阿根廷vs沙特<br />11月22日21点:丹麦vs突尼斯<br />11月23日0点:墨西哥vs波兰<br />11月23日3点:法国vs澳大利亚/阿联酋/秘鲁<br />11月23日18点:摩洛哥vs克罗地亚<br />11月23日21点:德国vs日本<br />11月24日0点:西班牙vs哥斯达黎加/新西兰<br />11月24日3点:比利时vs加拿大<br />11月24日18点:瑞士vs喀麦隆<br />11月24日21点:乌拉圭vs韩国<br />11月25日0点:葡萄牙vs加纳<br />11月25日3点:巴西vs塞尔维亚</div><div><br />第二轮赛程:<br />11月25日18点:威尔士/苏格兰/乌克兰vs伊朗<br />11月25日21点:卡塔尔vs塞内加尔<br />11月26日0点:荷兰vs厄瓜多尔<br />11月26日3点:英格兰vs美国<br />11月26日18点:突尼斯vs澳大利亚/阿联酋/秘鲁<br />11月26日21点:波兰vs沙特<br />11月27日0点:法国vs丹麦<br />11月27日3点:阿根廷vs墨西哥<br />11月27日18点,日本vs哥斯达黎加/新西兰<br />11月27日21点:比利时vs摩洛哥<br />11月28日0点:克罗地亚vs加拿大<br />11月28日3点,西班牙vs德国<br />11月28日21点:韩国vs加纳<br />11月28日18点:喀麦隆vs塞尔维亚<br />11月29日0点:巴西vs瑞士<br />11月29日3点:葡萄牙vs乌拉圭</div><div><br /></div><div><br />第三轮赛程:<br />11月29日23点,荷兰vs卡塔尔,厄瓜多尔vs塞内加尔<br />11月30日3点,威尔士/苏格兰/乌克兰vs英格兰,伊朗vs美国<br />12月1日3点,沙特vs墨西哥,波兰vs阿根廷<br />11月30日23点,突尼斯vs法国,澳大利亚/阿联酋/秘鲁vs丹麦<br />12月1日23点,克罗地亚vs比利时,加拿大vs摩洛哥<br />12月2日3点,日本vs西班牙,哥斯达黎加/新西兰vs德国<br />12月2日23点,韩国vs葡萄牙,加纳vs乌拉圭<br />12月3日3点,塞尔维亚vs瑞士,喀麦隆vs巴西</div><div><br />2022卡塔尔世界杯分组<br />A组:卡塔尔、厄瓜多尔、塞内加尔、荷兰<br />B组:英格兰、伊朗、美国、威尔士<br />C组:阿根廷、沙特、墨西哥、波兰<br />D组:法国、澳大利亚、丹麦、突尼斯<br />E组:西班牙、哥斯达黎加、德国、日本<br />F组:比利时、加拿大、摩洛哥、克罗地亚<br />G组:巴西、塞尔维亚、瑞士、喀麦隆<br />H组:葡萄牙、加纳、乌拉圭、韩国</div><div><br /></div><div><br />2022卡塔尔世界杯其他比赛时间<br />1/8决赛:2022年12月3日-12月6日<br />1/4决赛:2022年12月9日、10日<br />半决赛:2022年12月13日、14日<br />3/4名决赛:2022年12月17日<br />决赛:2022年12月18日</div><p style="text-align: left;"><br /></p>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-92159317977089577852022-11-24T04:18:00.000-08:002022-11-24T04:18:08.713-08:00【转载】高效阅读英语信息的方法<p> </p><header class="post-header" style="background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; opacity: 1; transform: translateY(0px); user-select: text !important;"><h2 class="post-title" itemprop="name headline" style="font-size: 26px; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; position: relative; text-align: center; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-word;"><br /></h2></header><div class="post-body" itemprop="articleBody" style="background-color: white; opacity: 1; text-align: justify; transform: translateY(0px); user-select: text !important;"><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">语言是一个工具,让你了解世界的途径。</p><span style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, PingFang SC, Microsoft YaHei, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; outline-color: initial; outline-width: initial;"><a id="more" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important;"></a></span></span><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">随着信息源的不断更新,我的英语信息源占比越来越大。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">作为英语险过四级的我来说,阅读英语的文章是有些吃力,为此不得不借助「网页翻译」工具,比如浏览器自带的翻译功能,但还有视频、书籍,咋整?但不能因为语言问题失去探索的乐趣。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">尽管我在英语面前被降维打击,但英语在我的工具面前则毫无还手之力。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">本文有点标题党,更合适描述是:</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><strong style="user-select: text !important;">如何借助工具提升阅读英语信息的效率?</strong></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">先总结一下我对翻译的需求:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">内容:能翻译文章(网页)、PDF、图片、书籍和音/视频</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">服务:优先 Deepl 、Google</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">方式:中英文对照、划词翻译、高亮译文等</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">平台:优先 PC ,能支持移动端最好</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">费用:免费最好,付费价格不超过 200 元/年</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">整体而言,我的目的是借助工具帮助我理解长篇英语信息,降低我对阅读英语资料的门槛,既不是为了写作,也不是为了口语。所以在工具的使用上对于准确度并没有多大的要求,<strong style="user-select: text !important;">以快速理解原文为主,提升英语能力为辅</strong>,不用过于纠结。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">但并不是说明完全不管准确度的问题,比如 Deepl 翻译的内容会比其他服务要准确,我也会优先选择 Deepl;甚至我会通过多种服务进行对比翻译,达到尽可能准确的目的。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">说明:在文中提到的工具可能有使用门槛或需付费,而且本文并非软件安装使用教程,仅提供些许信息增量供参考。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">本文目录:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如何翻译英语文章?</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如何翻译英语书籍(PDF、ePub等)?</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如何翻译图片中的英语?</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如何观看英语视频?</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">万能组合,解决 90% 的翻译问题。</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">精简版(总结版)</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">附:所有工具及地址</p></li></ul><h2 id="阅读英语网页" style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 10px 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD%E7%BD%91%E9%A1%B5" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="阅读英语网页"></a>阅读英语网页</h2><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">我的英语文章主要来源于 Gmail、RSS(通过 Inoreader 订阅)和部分 App;它们可能是博客、Newsletter 等;所以内容载体可能是在 PC 或者 App。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">刚开始对于这类的翻译,我主要采用浏览器自带的翻译功能,相信大家都用过;后续用过一些插件,比如Google Translate、沙拉查词等;都是免费的产品。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">不过 Google Translate 最近有使用门槛,需要爬个楼梯。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">在很长一段时间里,我尝试过支持双语显示(上面是原文,下面的译文)的插件,分别是彩云小译、划词翻译和Immersive Translate。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">先说<strong style="user-select: text !important;">彩云小译</strong>,免费版完全不够日常使用,若高频使用,需进行付费;我买了一年,目前还剩半年。免费版网页翻译仅支持 10 次,付费版无限次。支持双语显示,但是双语翻译后不支持对其标注,且整个网页都翻译了。<br style="user-select: text !important;" /><a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766105247.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766105247.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">可以看到右侧和文章不想关的信息也翻译了,对我而言仅仅是需要翻译正文即可;其次我若采用 Hypothesis 进行网页标注的话,彩云本身会出现一个让我点赞的按钮,严重影响我的划线或评论。<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664192.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664192.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">为此,我5月30日还专门在他们的社区进行反馈,但是到现在依旧没被解决;<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664241.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664241.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><blockquote style="border-left: 4px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); color: #666666; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px 15px; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Ref: <a href="https://support.qq.com/products/107129/post/165392298364234283/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://support.qq.com/products/107129/post/165392298364234283/</a></p></blockquote><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">在使用彩云小译的过程中,PC 和 App 都可以达到双语翻译的效果,目前在这块是我体验较好的了。但由于对原文和译文的批注评论需求较大,不得不寻找新的替代品。目前 App 是用的彩云小译实现双语阅读。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">总结一下彩云小译:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">支持 PC 和 App ,App 比较方便</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">付费后支持 网页、视频、PDF 、文档翻译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">只能支持彩云服务,无法选择其他服务,比如 Deepl</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">批注和评论体验不好(相当差)</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">无法自定义翻译的区域,默认全网页翻译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">会员:156 元/年</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">接着,我发现了「<strong style="user-select: text !important;">划词翻译</strong>」插件,可以解决彩云小译的部分问题,比如支持通过 Hypothesis 批注和评论。<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664297.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664297.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">在原文和译文上没有彩云小译(不好看)的点赞按钮,非常方便。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">对比彩云小译有如下好处:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">价格更加便宜,45元/年,128元可永久</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">支持切换其他翻译服务,比如 Deepl、百度、腾讯、彩云等</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">支持网页翻译、划词翻译和 PDF</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">移动端目前不支持</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">网页翻译是全部,做不到仅翻译正文</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">巧的是,最近在 Telegram 发现了另一款插件 <strong style="user-select: text !important;">Immersive Translate</strong>,可以只翻译正文部分,而且可以自定义自己想翻译的部分;为常用网站(Twitter、Reddit、Discord、Telegram、Youtube、Hacker News、Gmail等)做了定制化,支持双语显示,也支持划线和标注,关键是完全免费。</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;">在 Twitter 的效果(来自官网):</li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664368.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="推特" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664368.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"> </p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;">在 Discord 翻译效果:</li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664464.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664464.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;">在网页上的效果</li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664587.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664587.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">除此之外,PDF 和 ePub 也是支持的,后面我们细说。这款软件给我的感觉是:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">确实是阅读英语长文(论文)的好帮手</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">支持划线与标注</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">开发者在 Telegram 很活跃,我提的好几个需求都实现了</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">价格:免费</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">基于 Google 翻译的,使用有点门槛</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">除此之外,还有一款特殊的翻译插件 <strong style="user-select: text !important;">Relingo</strong>,它不会将全文进行翻译,仅针对部分单词进行翻译,可以根据你的英语水平进行设置,力求自己根据上下文完成阅读。<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664712.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664712.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">我使用过一段时间,由于自身英语水平有限,这样的阅读效率会很慢;也有可能是我的英语文章太长,整体来说不是很适合我;还是比较追求中英文双语对照翻译的体验,有兴趣的小伙伴可以试试。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">总结一下:英文网页阅读比较简单,尽管不用第三方翻译工具,自带的浏览器基本可以实现;但为了有更好的体验,中英文双语对照翻译确实是比较重要的需求。目前在用工具如下:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">PC:以 <strong style="user-select: text !important;">Immersive Translate</strong> 为主<strong style="user-select: text !important;">,Relingo</strong> 为辅</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">App:彩云小译 App</p></li></ul><h2 id="阅读英语书籍" style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 10px 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/#%E9%98%85%E8%AF%BB%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD%E4%B9%A6%E7%B1%8D" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="阅读英语书籍"></a>阅读英语书籍</h2><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">英文书籍主要有两种格式:PDF 和 ePub。PDF 格式本质上是图片,不如文本类型的 ePub 方便处理。所以对两者的支持上也略有差异。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">两种类型最开始是通过彩云小译完成翻译的,导入翻译后会得到一份双语版本的电子书,导入电子书阅读软件可读,比如微信读书、Apple books 等;或者在 Apple books 中选中对应的句子,右键翻译,但是效率较低;在「如何阅读英语文章」中提到「中英文对照翻译」的需求在阅读电子书也同样适用。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">我们先看彩云翻译 PDF 和 ePub 的效果。</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;">翻译 PDF 的效果</li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664825.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664825.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;">翻译 ePub 的效果<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664953.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766664953.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">基本上能满足阅读的需求,导入Apple Books 也是可以的,付费的产品还是好使。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">接着来看看 Immersive Translate 翻译 ePub 和 PDF 的效果;我的 ePub 是在 Readwise Reeder 上阅读的,这是 Readwise 内测的阅读器;Immersive Translate 开发者推荐通过 <a href="https://1paragraph.app/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://1paragraph.app/</a> 来阅读 ePub,感兴趣可自行测试;</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Readwise Reeder 适配还是我给开发者提的需求,再次感谢 @OwenYoung 。</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;">翻译 ePub 的效果</li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665114.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665114.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">对比彩云翻译的效果来看,有三个好处:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">可以直接在网页标注,高亮自动同步到 Readwise</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">不需要单独进行导入,可以在线阅读,且可同步 App</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">排版上更加的美观,彩云由于是追加的文本,电子书排版有时会错乱</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Immersive Translate 翻译 PDF 有点特殊,需要通过 <a href="https://translatewebpages.org/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://translatewebpages.org/</a> 将文件转为 HTML 格式,然后再对 HTML 进行翻译。效果如下:<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665367.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665367.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;">左边是原文,右边是译文</li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">PDF 对比之下和彩云小译各有特色;Immersive Translate 无法和网页一样在对应内容下方显示译文,而是单独模块显示;彩云小译这块效果要好一些。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">对我来说,除非读论文,基本上很少有 PDF 的需求;所以,Immersive Translate 满足了我对 PDF 阅读的需求。</p><h2 id="观看英语视频" style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 10px 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/#%E8%A7%82%E7%9C%8B%E8%8B%B1%E8%AF%AD%E8%A7%86%E9%A2%91" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="观看英语视频"></a>观看英语视频</h2><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">英语视频的主要来源是 YouTube ,其他网站(比如 Coursera 会自带中文字幕或者英语字幕);所以这块我优先 YouTube,然后说下本地的视频如何处理。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">YouTube 有很多的博主都是外国人,比如 August Bradley;人家也不会提供英语字幕,YouTube 好像可以提供自带的翻译功能,但我希望能中英对照的诉求难以满足。<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665572.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665572.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">我主要借助 <strong style="user-select: text !important;">YouTube 双字幕</strong> 插件观看视频,效果如上。它支持调整显示字幕样式、字幕下载等。对 YouTube 的适配较好。在这个基础上,还有更加丰富的插件,比如 <strong style="user-select: text !important;">Language Reactor</strong>;</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">不仅支持中英文双语显示,还可以提前看到字幕,点击对应的字幕进行播放,部分单词可以加入收藏,方便后续进一步学习。这是我目前在用的插件。<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665829.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766665829.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">关于本地的视频翻译,方法有很多,比如:</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">彩云小译付费会员视频翻译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Language Reactor 支持选中导入本地视频</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">飞书妙记支持导入本地视频并翻译,免费</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">我对本地视频采用的是飞书妙记,比较方便;关键是我本地的英语视频确实比较少哈。</p><h2 id="翻译图片中文字" style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 10px 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/#%E7%BF%BB%E8%AF%91%E5%9B%BE%E7%89%87%E4%B8%AD%E6%96%87%E5%AD%97" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="翻译图片中文字"></a>翻译图片中文字</h2><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">把图片单独拎出来说,是因为手机上和 PC 略有不同。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如果你看到一个英文截图,在电脑上可能需要先 OCR 把图片中的内容识别出来,然后进行二次翻译;在手机上可用微信识别(毕竟大多数时候还是在用微信的)。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">先说电脑的处理方式,我两台设备都是 macOS,所以这块内容是基于 macOS 的,Windows 的用户可以探索一下,据我所知也是有工具的。我采用的工具是 <strong style="user-select: text !important;">Bob</strong> ,服务是 <strong style="user-select: text !important;">OpenL</strong>;</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Bob 解决的是从图片中提取文字并翻译的问题;OpenL 是提供不同翻译服务的,比如 Deepl 、Google 、彩云等。<a class="fancybox fancybox.image" href="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766666126.png" rel="group" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><img alt="" src="https://img-res-md.oss-cn-beijing.aliyuncs.com/img/16684766666126.png" style="border: 1px solid rgb(221, 221, 221); box-sizing: border-box; cursor: -webkit-zoom-in; display: block !important; height: auto; margin: 0px auto 25px; max-width: 100%; padding: 3px; user-select: text !important;" /></a></p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">左边是图片,右边是我用快捷键识别后的效果。我设置了 Deepl 、系统自带和彩云的翻译服务对比。从图片中识别文字并翻译不仅限于图片,还有不能复制或者选中的网页也是可以通过这种方式解决的。</p><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">在手机上的场景比较少,主要有三个解决方法。</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">第一个是微信的图片支持识别翻译;</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">第二个是 iOS 16 之后,支持从图片上直接选中文字,然后翻译;</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">第三个是白描 App 支持 OCR 后自动翻译,也适用于阅读英文书籍;</p></li></ul><h2 id="万能组合" style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 10px 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/#%E4%B8%87%E8%83%BD%E7%BB%84%E5%90%88" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="万能组合"></a>万能组合</h2><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">在 macOS 系统里,对于翻译的万能组合是 Bob + OpenL,他们支持选中后翻译,支持提取图片文字翻译,支持输入翻译;翻译的结果支持设置多个服务,查看 Deepl、微信、彩云、Google 等结果。</p><h2 id="精简版" style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 10px 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/#%E7%B2%BE%E7%AE%80%E7%89%88" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="精简版"></a>精简版</h2><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">PC 上如何翻译网页文章?</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">自带的浏览器翻译服务</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">翻译插件,如 Google Translate、彩云小译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">中英文对照:Immersive Translate(推荐)、彩云小译、划词翻译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">智能翻译:Relingo</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">App 如何翻译网页文章?</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">浏览器自带翻译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">彩云小译 App(推荐)</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Immersive Translate + 火狐浏览器</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如何翻译书籍(PDF/ePub)?</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">彩云小译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Immersive Translate(推荐)</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如何翻译图片?</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Bob + OpenL(推荐)</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">微信自带翻译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">iOS 16 文字提取后翻译</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">白描 App</p></li></ul><p style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">如何翻译英语视频?</p><ul style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">飞书妙记(推荐)</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Language Reactor</p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">YouTube 双字幕</p></li></ul><h2 id="工具地址" style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 22px; line-height: 1.5; margin: 20px 0px 10px; padding: 10px 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;"><a class="headerlink" href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/#%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7%E5%9C%B0%E5%9D%80" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="工具地址"></a>工具地址</h2><ul style="user-select: text !important;"><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">彩云小译:<a href="https://fanyi.caiyunapp.com/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://fanyi.caiyunapp.com/</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Immersive Translate:<a href="https://github.com/immersive-translate/immersive-translate" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://github.com/immersive-translate/immersive-translate</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Relingo:<a href="https://relingo.net/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://relingo.net</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">划词翻译:<a href="https://hcfy.app/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://hcfy.app/</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">沙拉查词:<a href="https://saladict.crimx.com/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://saladict.crimx.com/</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">YouTube 双字幕:<a href="https://www.dual-subtitles.com/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://www.dual-subtitles.com/</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Language Reactor:<a href="https://www.languagereactor.com/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://www.languagereactor.com/</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">飞书妙记:<a href="https://www.feishu.cn/product/minutes" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://www.feishu.cn/product/minutes</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">Bob:<a href="https://github.com/ripperhe/Bob" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://github.com/ripperhe/Bob</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">OpenL:<a href="https://openl.club/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://openl.club/</a></p></li><li style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">白描:<a href="https://baimiao.uzero.cn/" rel="noopener" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">https://baimiao.uzero.cn/</a></p><hr style="background-color: #dddddd; background-image: repeating-linear-gradient(-45deg, rgb(255, 255, 255), rgb(255, 255, 255) 4px, transparent 4px, transparent 8px); border: none; box-sizing: content-box; height: 2px; margin: 20px 0px; user-select: text !important;" /><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;">以上,就是关于我日常解决语言难题的工具和思路;但工具始终是工具,自己掌握了才是真本事(也不是,毕竟学习反人性,我自己都不想)。</p></li></ul><div><span style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, PingFang SC, Microsoft YaHei, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></span></div><ul style="user-select: text !important;"><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><span style="color: #555555; font-family: Lato, PingFang SC, Microsoft YaHei, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">原文地址:https://demochen.com/posts/111501/</span></span></p></li><li style="list-style: circle; user-select: text !important;"><p style="margin: 0px 0px 25px; user-select: text !important;"><span class="post-time" style="color: #999999; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; text-align: center; user-select: text !important;"><span class="post-meta-item-text" style="user-select: text !important;">发表于</span> <time datetime="2022-11-15T21:25:28+08:00" itemprop="dateCreated datePublished" style="user-select: text !important;" title="创建于">2022-11-15 </time></span><span class="post-category" style="color: #999999; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; text-align: center; user-select: text !important;"><span class="post-meta-divider" style="margin: 0px 0.5em; user-select: text !important;">|</span> <span class="post-meta-item-icon" style="margin-right: 3px; user-select: text !important;"><span class="fa fa-folder-o" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; display: inline-block; font-family: FontAwesome !important; font-size: inherit; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span> </span><span class="post-meta-item-text" style="user-select: text !important;">分类于</span> <span itemprop="about" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Thing" style="user-select: text !important;"><a href="https://demochen.com/categories/%E5%B7%A5%E5%85%B7/" itemprop="url" rel="index" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;"><span itemprop="name" style="user-select: text !important;">工具</span> </a></span></span><span class="post-letters-count" style="color: #999999; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 12px; text-align: center; user-select: text !important;"> | <span style="user-select: text !important;">全文共3.2k字</span> | <span style="user-select: text !important;">阅读时长11分钟</span></span></p></li></ul></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #555555; font-family: Lato, "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; user-select: text !important;"><ul class="post-copyright" style="background-color: #f9f9f9; border-left: 3px solid rgb(255, 23, 0); list-style: none; margin: 2em 0px 0px; padding: 0.5em 1em; user-select: text !important;"><li class="post-copyright-author" style="user-select: text !important;"><strong style="user-select: text !important;">作者:</strong> DemoChen</li><li class="post-copyright-link" style="user-select: text !important;"><strong style="user-select: text !important;">链接:</strong> <a href="https://demochen.com/posts/111501/" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" title="高效阅读英语信息的方法">https://demochen.com/posts/111501/</a></li><li class="post-copyright-license" style="user-select: text !important;"><strong style="user-select: text !important;">声明: </strong>本博客所有文章除特别声明外,均采用 <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/" rel="external nofollow" style="background-color: transparent; border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); color: #555555; outline: none; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank">CC BY-NC-SA 3.0</a> 许可协议。转载请注明出处!</li></ul></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-62860344112433126362022-11-20T23:23:00.005-08:002022-11-20T23:33:31.923-08:00最新Telegram Bot 电报机器人合集<p> </p><header class="Post-Header" style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: 0px auto; user-select: text !important; width: 690px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://pic1.zhimg.com/v2-b691ab9d0535f0cab85bcd190cb77898_1440w.jpg?source=172ae18b" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="800" height="390" src="https://pic1.zhimg.com/v2-b691ab9d0535f0cab85bcd190cb77898_1440w.jpg?source=172ae18b" width="694" /></a></div><br /><h1 class="Post-Title" style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 24px; font-stretch: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-synthesis: style; font-variant: inherit; line-height: 1.22; margin: 24px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important;"><br /></h1><div class="Post-Author" style="-webkit-box-align: center; align-items: center; display: flex; user-select: text !important;"><div class="AuthorInfo" itemprop="author" itemscope="" itemtype="http://schema.org/Person" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-flex: 1; -webkit-box-pack: justify; align-items: center; display: flex; flex: 1 1 0%; justify-content: space-between; max-width: 654px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; user-select: text !important; white-space: nowrap;"><div class="AuthorInfo" style="-webkit-box-align: center; -webkit-box-flex: 1; -webkit-box-pack: justify; align-items: center; display: flex; flex: 1 1 0%; justify-content: space-between; max-width: 654px; overflow: hidden; position: relative; user-select: text !important;"><span class="UserLink AuthorInfo-avatarWrapper" style="user-select: text !important;"><br /></span></div></div></div></header><div class="Post-RichTextContainer" style="background-color: white; color: #121212; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; margin: 0px auto; overflow: visible; position: relative; user-select: text !important; width: 690px;"><div class="css-1yuhvjn" style="margin-top: 16px; user-select: text !important;"><div class="css-79elbk" style="position: relative; user-select: text !important;"><div class="RichText ztext Post-RichText css-4em6pe" options="[object Object]" style="line-height: 1.6; user-select: text !important; word-break: break-word;"><p data-first-child="" data-pid="Oj_emo-p" style="margin: 0px 0px 1.4em; user-select: text !important;">telegram官方bot|机器人</p><p data-first-child="" data-pid="Oj_emo-p" style="margin: 0px 0px 1.4em; user-select: text !important;"><br style="user-select: text !important;" />@botfahter 管理机器人的官方bot,一般用不到它,放在第一位是因为要创建机器人的都要用到它。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />TG中文群组索引机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@hao1234bot 【超级索引】:Telegram上的Hao123,频道大全,也有个频道,是发送关键词,然后BOT提供关键词相关群组的机器人。可以拉到群组使用。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@zh_secretary_bot 【TGX-频道秘书】:TGX-索引公告板 @zh_secretary 的群组频道登记机器人,优点:和【TGCN-群组索引计划】差不多,又有可以看群组频道推荐的地方了,缺点:不能通过关键词查找<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@qunzudaquan_bot 【TG群组频道导航机器人 – @qunzudaquan_bot】:添加 @qunzudaquan_bot 到你的群组自动收录,私聊发送你的群组频道公开链接到:@qunzudaquan_bot,未收录或更新资料发送/update<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@zh_groups_bot 【TGCN-群组索引计划】:收录群组的,本来有个非常好用的推荐频道,可惜目前因有人滥用已停用频道推荐功能。</p><p data-pid="7FpVsSWh" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">群组抽奖机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@tgLotteryBot:抽奖助手机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@LotteryHelperBot:抽奖助手机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Grinx_bot:幸运抽奖助手<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@fengdrawbot:抽奖机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@cnLottery_bot:Telegram 抽奖助手@Lottery_home Telegram 抽奖活动导航,想白嫖的推荐关注,想推广群组的在自己群使用bot创建抽奖后可以选择是否推荐到这个频道。</p><p data-pid="jOruVAsH" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">协助管理群组机器人验证<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@P4CaptchaBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@group_confirmation_bot 验证机器人,四个汉字验证码<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@tgcnjoincaptchabot:加群验证,杀广告<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TGreCAPTCHABot:给 Telegram 群组用的 reCAPTCHA 验证码<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@jqs7zweibot:加群验证码<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@policr_bot:加群验证,用户可以自定义问题<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@FengDoorBot:欢迎消息,消息自毁,进群验证<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@orgrobot:进群验证问题,群管可自定义验证问题,以后可能收费<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@fuckuspambot:过滤机器人已经支持入群的时候使用谷歌人机验证了。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@shieldy_bot:入群验证bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@toorucaptchabot:一个简单的加减法运算入群验证机器人</p><p data-pid="IUeNjFRN" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">欢迎<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@RealApolloBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WTFisBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@jh0ker_welcomebot</p><p data-pid="fupz2ZEn" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">广告拦截<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@adnamekillerbot:长名广告专杀<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@AutoRestrictBot:限制新群员<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@AntiServiceMessageBot:I remove join/leave messages in groups and supergroups.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />看门<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WatchDoorBot:可禁止发送指定类型的信息,用于避免恶意举报,官方地址<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://hackmd.io/s/BkwAIgrL7" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">hackmd.io/s/BkwAIgrL7</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />昵称<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@UNameBot:在使用者忘記設定 username 時發送提醒訊息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@SangMata_BOT:放入群组可以监控群里用户名字更改记录<br style="user-select: text !important;" />骂人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@the_jbot</p><p data-pid="IsVKofAG" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">管理<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@littleGuardianBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@telemethebot:群管bot (收费) ,可自动应答,定时广播,分析群数据<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@xxdamage2bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@YuanEnBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@HomelandSecurity_Bot:中文<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GroupButler_bot:多语言<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GBReborn_bot:多语言<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@SCP_079_BOT:是一个防 Spam 机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@combot:丰富的群管功能,但要收费,分析功能不收费<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@baymax_en_bot:设置每天禁言时间,删除少于指定字数的发言,删除指定时间内的重复发言,邀请指定人数后才能发言,指定频道成员才能发言,过滤关键字,禁止发特定类型消息,<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Coolestbot:群管bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@delete_media_bot 夜间删除媒体机器人:聊天群添加此机器人,群内北京时间24点到7点只能展现语音和文字,发送其他媒体将被删除,其他时间段不限制<br style="user-select: text !important;" />禁贴图<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@nosticker_bot:删除sticker<br style="user-select: text !important;" />举报<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TgAntiReportBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@tgcnbot:通过投票举报违规消息</p><p data-pid="zNl1eOY_" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">群组统计<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@typcn_soliloquize_bot:分析群员群活跃程度<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@CNBlackListRBot:黑名单机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MessageAnalystBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@hj_util_bot</p><p data-pid="RHTru8tg" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">自动回复<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@fengfaqbot 群主の蜜 – 雪儿:群主秘书,自动回复消息,自动删除脏话<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@keyword_reply_bot 这个我知道 – 关键词机器人:自动回复关键词对应的内容,删除含关键词的消息。GitHub<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MissRose_bot Rose:英文群管理bot,可以自动回复关键字,限制特定时间内发言数量等众多功能</p><p data-pid="BueBy3BV" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">匿名发布<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Anonymous_telegram_bot:匿名发言机器人,邀请它进群组,然后把想匿名发布的内容私聊发给机器人bot,然后选择要发送匿名消息的群组,机器人会帮你发消息到此群组<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@mirroring_bot:发给bot的话会重新发回来,用于隐藏原始发言人。它会原封不动的回复你发的内容,然后转发给别人,别人只能看到发布人是这个机器人</p><p data-pid="vGsJZ36a" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">视频发布<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@kaiche123bot 开车机器人:色情视频发布机器人,开车命令 /kc,可设置自己的广告<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@kaiche888_bot 老司机开车:色情机器人,开车bot,提供随机开车功能 /stochastic<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@PornWiki_bot 青涩百科:成人视频发布机器人,开车命令 /video<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@sex_video_share_bot:这个机器人不能显示,因为它是用来传播色情内容的。不知道还能不能用<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Happy_SLYBot 舒服的機器人:好像不是群用的机器人,会引导到外站观看视频(被墙的网站)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Hentai_rbot Hentai XXX:收录了日本最著名的Milky、Sakura Films、Discovery、Bootleg Label等公司的独家未经审查的动画片。视频没有中文字幕<br style="user-select: text !important;" />图片发布<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@xiannvgong_bot 仙女宫:套图发布机器人(非漏点图片),/hello 随机9张写真,/all 随机一整套写真(流量慎用,试用了一次发来130张)</p><p data-pid="poYEk_Az" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">RSS订阅机器人:<br style="user-select: text !important;" />建议频道使用,群组用影响交流</p><p data-pid="Rhdy3HVr" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">@RSSWBot 【RSS屋】:提供全文RSS订阅源,还可以设置订阅关键字,具体可到他的官网查看<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@NodeRSS_bot 【NodeRSSBot】:多语言支持,可自行docker部署<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@rssflowbot 【flowerss】:一个支持应用内阅读的RSS机器人,把内容自动转换成telegar.ph链接,直接在telegram中查看RSS内容,可以自行使用docker部署RSS机器人自用,docker部署方法<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@RssChinabot 【RssChinaBot】:最近 @rssflowbot 罢工了,这个机器人是用flowerss开源代码搭建的,也能提供TG内预览RSS内容功能<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@EventsAggregatorBot:外国bot,在Telegram中转发您最喜欢的Twitter、Instagram、RSS、Reddit、YouTube、Twitch帐户。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@rss2tg_bot:外国bot,直接发rss链接给它,在发一次相同链接就是取消订阅,有宣传广告<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TheFeedReaderBot 【Feed Reader Bot】:国外bot,Feed Reader Bot monitors websites, Facebook/Youtube/Twitter ,accounts, and sends messages when new posts are made.小于50M的youtube视频直接提供文件下载,连接自己的twitter号,可自定义视频,图片,文字发送方式,例如是否用telegarm预览,是否全文输出,并且可以通过分段输出过长内容,可直接输出图片,视频,文本,最多8个订阅,经常会有漏发<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@RustRssBot 【RSSBot】:中文Telegram RSS机器人(订阅到群:把bot拉进群用命令/sub <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://feeds.bbci.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/rss.xml" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">feeds.bbci.co.uk/zhongw</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">en/simp/rss.xml</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a>. 订阅到频道需要私聊,比如 /sub @xxx <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://feeds.bbci.co.uk/zhongwen/simp/rss.xml" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">feeds.bbci.co.uk/zhongw</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">en/simp/rss.xml</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a>)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@AximoBot:外国bot,社交媒体RSS机器人,可订阅Coub.com, Instagram.com, Twitter.com, Twitch.tv, Periscope.tv, Medium.com, <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://vine.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">Vine.com</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> accounts, <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://vk.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">VK.com</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> users and public groups, <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://livejournal.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">Livejournal.com</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> blogs, <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://youtube.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">Youtube.com</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> channels and Facebook public pages.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@FeedManBot 【Feed Man Bot】:外国bot,您的完美伙伴,可以随时更新您的所有RSS订阅源,可全文订阅,最多订阅50个youtube频道<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@el_monitorro_bot 【El Monitorro – RSS Reader】:外国bot,El Monitorro是一个RSS阅读器,当你订阅一个新的订阅源时,你将收到它的最后10条消息。之后,您将只会接收到新的内容。RSS源更新检查间隔为1分钟。未读邮件的传递间隔也是1分钟。目前,订阅数量限制在20个。</p><p data-pid="dr0Xjy8S" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">下载资源相关机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@filetobot【File to bot】:将你的文件保存在Telegram的无限私人存储中。可以发送或转发文件(包括视频、音频等),回复中带有一个网址可以浏览器打开下载,国内下载速度一般只有几十K。可以选择中文<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GoogleDriveManagerBot 谷歌网盘管家:GD网盘资源转存,免费版每天只能转存 50 个文件<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Gdriveit_bot 能够帮你将telegram的文件上传到你的Google drive,并且能在TG里查看你的GD文件<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Tg2extbot Public Link Bot:上传或者转发文件给它,它会帮你上传到指定的国外网盘并给你分享链接<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@UloaditV2Bot【URL Uploader】:发送直链下载地址给机器人,它会远程上传到telegram<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@gdlink_bot GDlink:发送GD网盘单文件的分享链接给它,它会回复直链下载地址<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GetPublicLinkBot::将telegram文件转发给这个bot,它会生成外部下载链接让你可以用第三方下载工具(例如idm,迅雷等)下载,或者转存到你的GOOGLE云盘(需要先进行绑定)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MyPersonalBackupBot【MyBot】:在聊天中发送一个文件(文档、视频、照片、贴纸、音频、语音、gif),然后回复刚刚发送的文件,指令“save 文件名123”,那么以后发送“文件名123”给机器人,它会发送这个文件给你。</p><p data-pid="sw3ObUJo" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">下载YouTube视频音频机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@UploadsRobot【?UploadsBOT⚡️】:除了可以下YouTube,还可以代下直链文件。需要关注频道。有年龄等限制的视频可能无法下载。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TG_YouTubeBot【YouTube bot⚡️】:需要关注频道。有年龄等限制的视频可能无法下载。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@YouTubeV2TGBot【YouTube】:需要关注频道。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@getmediabot:可下载youtube,twitter等网站视频<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@utubebot:下载YouTube视频 ,可订阅youtube频道到个人帐号上<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@YoutubeConvertBot(已失效):将youtube视频转到telegram或者google drive<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@YTAudioBot:下载youtube的音频内容,大文件无法下载。发YouTube的视频地址给它,它会上传音频到telegram并回复给你,所以下载会消耗你的梯子流量<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@VideoTubeBot:Downloads audio/video from YouTube.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@AudioTubeBot:Downloads audio/video from YouTube.</p><p data-pid="7r5-qZSv" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">影视类机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Tv_subtitles_bot TV Subtitles:提供电视剧英文字幕<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@subtitle_dl_bot Subtitles:提供电影英文字幕</p><p data-pid="CA5rGmxA" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">音乐机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@vkm_bot【VKM Bot】:发送歌手名字或歌曲名,会回复给你多个歌手歌曲供选择<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@vkmusic_bot【VK Music Bot】:和【VKM Bot】一样,发送歌手名字或歌曲名,会回复给你多个歌手歌曲供选择<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ChinoNyanBot【チノ喵】:无损音乐免费直接下(支持QQ音乐 网易云 虾米。QQ无损可能无法获取(Aquamarine)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@zenplayerbot【Zen Player】:无损音乐免费直接下,中文好像支持不太好,测试”海底“没搜索到歌曲</p><p data-pid="d5oHD1cX" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">语言翻译机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Translate:可将自己的发言翻译成英文及其他语言的机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@bingdict_bot:基于Bing的词典、翻译功能<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TranslateFather_bot:翻译机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@en_to_tw_bot:英繁翻译机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TranslateBot:翻译机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@lang_translate_bot:翻译机器人,可以在群组操作<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@The_Translator_bot:翻译机器人,可以在群组操作<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@YTranslateBot:翻译</p><p data-pid="6l1WPhsX" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">频道机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />投票<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@channellikebot:Channel Like Bot , Utilities,这个Bot在频道中发布任何帖子后,都会自动添加带有两个投票按钮的消息。不需要别的了<br style="user-select: text !important;" />评论<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@jogle_channel_bot:此 bot 可以为您的频道提供回复和展示评论信息的入口,从而为频道提供互动的平台。只要添加这个BOT为频道管理员,然后私聊机器人 /help 根据提示操作。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@discussbot:Telegram出的一个评论机器人,官方网站是 <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://comments.app/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">comments.app</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> ,这个网站提供2个功能,左边的是此机器人,将它加入你的频道,之后你发表的内容下方会有一个按钮,点击会弹出一个网页,可在上面登录后留下评论,官方演示,注意:转发的内容好像是没有效果。右边的是一个可以给你的网站添加一个由telegram提供的第三方评论功能,评论的数据储存在TG的服务器,也需要登录TG账号才能评论,目前不支持中文,所以需要考虑你的国内用户注册TG账号的不便(TG的官网网页需要科学上网才能注册账号)。</p><p data-pid="WXzA9Wlb" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">邮箱相关机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@DropmailBot <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://dropmail.me/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">DropMail.me</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a>:获得后缀为@<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://dropmail.me/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">dropmail.me</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a>的临时邮箱</p><p data-pid="r5xEtA7i" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">某些网站机器人bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@HK_heroku_BOT:管理你的heroku账户。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ppuabot:如果在 <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://nic.ua/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">nic.ua</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> 申请pp.ua的免费域名,激活时会用到。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@smsActivateruBot:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://sms-activate.ru/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">sms-activate.ru</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> 一个俄罗斯接码网站的机器人,暂时只知道绑定后登录会在TG里发消息提醒你。</p><p data-pid="n7s4NtEJ" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">匿名交易<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MugglePayBot 【TG匿名支付钱包 – 麻瓜宝】:基于telegarm的电子钱包,匿名交易0手续费。安全性未知!<br style="user-select: text !important;" />GIF查询<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TumblrAce_bot【GIF出处查询机器人】:本机器人可以帮助您查找GIF动图的出处,查询需要使用积分,初始积分50分,首次使用时通过邀请链接访问可多得30分 <a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://t.me/tumblrace_bot?start=invite653942358" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">t.me/tumblrace_bot?</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">start=invite653942358</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />小游戏<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@mine_sweeper_bot 【Minesweeper】:扫雷游戏 GitHub<br style="user-select: text !important;" />小说<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@xiaoshuobot:一个按照提示操作可以下载小说的机器人,提供的是TXT格式文件下载<br style="user-select: text !important;" />批量删除消息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@delall_bot:可以删除你所有的频道或群组的消息。以管理员身份将bot添加到频道/群组(至少具有“删除消息”、“邀请用户”和“添加管理员”权限)</p><p data-pid="CoUlmqV9" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">查询TG账号信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GetMyDateBot【Get Date】:一个简单的机器人,回复任何内容获得当前账号的ID和创建日期语言:意大利语|英语<br style="user-select: text !important;" />可自建机器人源码<br style="user-select: text !important;" />可能会和上面重复,此区域收集的是作者提供了代码,可以在自己服务器上使用的机器人</p><p data-pid="NJ9tnytw" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">@Archive_by_2049bbsBot 【网页存档机器人】:发送网址自动存档网页GitHub:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/Terminus2049/ArchiveTeleBot" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/Terminus2049</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">/ArchiveTeleBot</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />使用教程:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/Terminus2049/ArchiveTeleBot#" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/Terminus2049</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">/ArchiveTeleBot#</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a>自行部署方法<br style="user-select: text !important;" />Telegram 发卡机器人GitHub:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/lulafun/tg_faka_bot" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/lulafun/tg_f</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">aka_bot</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a></p><p data-pid="OA-ihCUB" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">使用教程:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/lulafun/tg_faka_bot/wiki/%E5%AE%89%E8%A3%85%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E6%95%99%E7%A8%8B" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/lulafun/tg_f</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">aka_bot/wiki/%E5%AE%89%E8%A3%85%E4%BD%BF%E7%94%A8%E6%95%99%E7%A8%8B</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />shell-bot:shellbot是一个远程执行 Shell 命令的 Telegram 机器人,也就是使用Linux指令,通过bot来控制你的VPS。GitHub:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/botgram/shell-bot" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/botgram/shel</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">l-bot</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />使用教程:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/botgram/shell-bot#install" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/botgram/shel</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">l-bot#install</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />fclone shell bot:基于shell-bot,通过telegram机器人使用fclone转存Google drive文件。GitHub:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/cgkings/fclone_shell_bot" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/cgkings/fclo</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">ne_shell_bot</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />使用教程:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/cgkings/fclone_shell_bot#" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/cgkings/fclo</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">ne_shell_bot#</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a>安装步骤<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TdPmBot:全功能 Telegram 私聊机器人以及创建器。能帮助您创建和管理 Telegram 私聊机器人。GitHub:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/TdBotProject/TdPmBot" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/TdBotProject</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">/TdPmBot</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />使用教程:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://github.com/TdBotProject/TdPmBot#" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">github.com/TdBotProject</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">/TdPmBot#</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a>安装</p><p data-pid="gWWKJ-Iq" style="margin: 1.4em 0px; user-select: text !important;">常用机器人:下面的还没整理</p><p data-pid="btfHiham" style="margin: 1.4em 0px 0px; user-select: text !important;">@ComenBot:留言本<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@CommentsBot:留言本,所有留言在一个新建网页中显示<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@anycombot:自动加评论按钮,点赞按钮,分享facebook,twitter,vk按钮<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@groupagreebot(失效中):留言本,投票等功能<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@vote:用来创建投票 ,最多十项<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@multi_vote_bot:创建可多项选择的投票,匿名投票<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@groupdisagreebot:投票,选项不受限制,用户可自主追加选项<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@homegroupagreebot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@advancedpollbot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@shizzlegroupagreebot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ultimate_pollbot:有丰富功能的投票bot,可以追加选项,可多选,可匿名<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@shizzlegroupagreebot:速度很慢,投票等功能<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@like:带点赞等表情按钮的发言<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@bold:Markdown bot 格式化输入,输入: @bold this is bold , this is Italic , and this is some code with *bold* 。即可得到。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@inlinebubot:这个机器人可以用简单的语法来发送按钮,不需要编程,解决telegram人类账户无法发送按钮的痛点。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@mdrobot:Send me markdown text and I will format it for you<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@S4Channels:This bot will send formatted text to your<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ControllerBot:适合频道所有者的机器人,可以帮助您创建丰富的帖子,查看统计数据等<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@PostBot:用于帮助生成自设按钮的发言<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@printfbot:帮助格式化文本后发布,例如加点赞,链接按钮,html,markdown或本机格式<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@BotsGramButtonsBot:按钮机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Buttoncreatingbot:制作按钮机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Qualitymovbot:制作按钮机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@my_buttonbot:制作按钮机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TG_PostBot:制作按钮机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@twittervid_bot:下载twitter视频<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Instasave_bot 下载instagram。只需发送链接<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@youtube:YouTube视频搜索<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@YoutubeChannelsBot:本机器人为中文Youtuber开发,整合了Youtube Data API, 方便Youtuber群主管理自己的频道,同时本机器人还提供一些群里常用的功能<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@spambot:官方机器人,如果号因为发广告或者其他原因被限制,可以通过此机器人查到相关信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@tlgurbot:Get a public link for a photo/video/file with Telegram.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TransferRobot 传给机器人小于20mb的文件,其生成外部下载链接。链接没有被墙<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@txt2speechbot:文字转化为语音<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ehForwarderBot:你可以在 Telegram 上收发微信消息,详情查看:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://www.appinn.com/eh-forwarder-bot/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://www.</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">appinn.com/eh-forwarder</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">-bot/</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a><br style="user-select: text !important;" />@socks5_bot:自动设置socks5代理,免翻墙登陆TG<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@JButler_bot:加密貨幣報價Bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@RSSHub_bot :万物皆可 RSS:RSSHub 是一个轻量、易于扩展的 RSS 生成器, 可以给任何奇奇怪怪的内容生成 RSS 订阅源<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@rsshubbot:已经失效<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@rsshub<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@telefeedbot(失效):Read rss feeds and social networks right in telegram<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ChannelBroBot:Free Telegram Chat automation System ,能自动查找网站rss,可定制发送格式,最多三个RSS订阅<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@pstrbot:Send posts from different social networks to your channels,To use PosterBot you must create bot on @BotFather<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@chatfuelbot(失效):生成自己的机器人,可以定制YOUTUBE,TWITTER,RSS等<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Manybot:Manybot可以让你创建自己的机器人。 发送消息,创建自定义命令和菜单。 按发送消息开始<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@LivegramBot:Livegram Bot is a builder of feedback bots for Telegram.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WikipediaLinkBot:使用[[]]或{{}}提供到中文維基百科的連結<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@vid:youtube搜索机器人,不需要加为好友或者加入进群,直接在群内或者聊天窗口输入@vid,即可搜索youtube视频<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@CorsaBot:把网页转化成telegra.ph贴子,是@chotamreaderbot的升级版<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@chotamreaderbot:即时预览,发送链接后可即时预览全文<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ReadmeBot:显示链接页面的全文<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@apkdl_bot:下载安卓应用软件和游戏<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@tchannelsbot:英文群组频道列表。寻找 Telegram 中的频道用。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@youtube:此机器人建议应用在个人、群组、频道。用来寻找热门 YouTube 影片,或可以指定订阅频道,一有新影片时通知。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@leakip_bot:检查IP是否被telegram泄露<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@telegraph:This bot can help you log in on Telegra.ph, manage your articles, and get page view statistics.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@JsonDumpBot:通过转发消息,能得到发消息人的UID<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@userinfobot:查看转发消息人的ID<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@getidsbot:This bot gives you telegram-internal information about messages<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@getidsstagingbot:通过转发消息,能得到发消息人的UID<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@myidbot:获取自己或者所有群的tg id<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MTProxybot:Set up and manage Telegram MTProxy servers<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@gdprbot:这个机器人可以帮助你得到你在telegarm服务器上被保存数据的副本<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WordFreqBot:统计组内用词频率<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GifReverseBot:gif 时间线倒流<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GmailBot:gmail官方<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WhatAnimeBot:以图搜动漫<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@temp_mail_bot:可以随机生成一个 10分钟有效期 的临时邮箱,适用于临时注册<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@UserBot:检测本机信息,包括CPU温度,内存,IP地址等<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@LinkGeneratorBot:Tg 短网址服务<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@referbot:Tg 短网址服务<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@gohubioBot:短网址服务<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@filetobot 文件保存<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@filesbot 文件共享<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@thesafebot 文件加密与分享<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@hidetextbot:TG内生成一篇贴子,并且生成链接用于传播 (用来传播私密贴)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TransferRobot 传给机器人小于20mb的文件,其生成外部下载链接。链接没有被墙<br style="user-select: text !important;" />web_image_extractor_bot:一个从网页中批量获取图片并以图集形式发送的机器人,频道: @webimageextractor<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@junction_bot:从频道收集帖子,以便您可以在一个Feed中阅读它们。 也可以将消息转发给群聊和频道,免费版可订阅10个频道,收费版无限制<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@tagchannelbot:将群里指定标签的消息转发到频道<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@SingleFeedBot:频道聚合阅读机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GIFDownloader_bot:tg能把贴纸保存成gif的机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@DownloadStickersBot:表情下载机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@Stickerdownloadbot:表情下载机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@stickersearchbot:表情搜索机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@StFindBot:表情搜索机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@EmojiWorldBot:表情搜索机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />channel2rssbot:可把频道生成rss<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@big_text_bot:文字转成图形发布<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@midi2wavebot:MIDI转MP3机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WhatAnimeBot 动漫搜索 ,发送动漫截图,机器人告诉你动漫信息及截图出处(精确到第几集几分几秒)里番也可以。<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@spotifybot:下载歌曲预听版<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MusicHuntersBot:音乐机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@u2bu_mp3_bot:音乐机器人,使用方法find 歌名,可在群使用<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@zenplayerbot:音乐机器人,/netease <空格>歌名或歌手名<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WooMaiBot:音乐机器人,使用方法/netease 歌名 ,可在群使用,众多实用功能,获取个人信息,获取账号所在数据中心,二维码编码/解码,图片文字识别,被墙检测,生成较高强度随机数,获取贴纸图片,获取IP地址信息,ping,查询WHOIS信息,查询域名ICP备案信息,哈希明文查询<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WebpageBot:更新instan view内容<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@imgurplusbot:Imgur图床机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@DistortBot:图片扭曲机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@NTT_X_BOT:可以绑定推特 可以创建私聊机器人,设置群自动回复,需要认证twitter帐号才能使用<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@gdriveme_bot:发送一个文件链接或者youtube地址,自动上传到 Google Drive<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@multiinoltrobot:将频道信息转发到群<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@LinkbaseBot:输入多个网址,然后在网址中搜索需要的内容<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@TgraphioBot:将telegra.ph,<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://graph.orgt.metelegram.metelegram.org/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">graph.orgt.metelegram.metelegram.org</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a>网站的贴转换成<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://tgraph.io/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">tgraph.io</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a>网贴,之前是避免网站封锁,但现在<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://tgraph.io/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">tgraph.io</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a>自己也被封锁了,似乎没有什么用了.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@FreqRobot:限制发言者在一分钟或者一天发言次数<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@visiontest1bot:最好用的OCR识别机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@imageToText_bot:最好用的OCR识别机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@renamebot:telegram文件重命名<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@File_RenamerBot:telegram文件重命名<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@QR_Wizardbot:二维码机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@QRCodeRoBot:二维码机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@qrcrbot:二维码机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MakeQrBot:二维码机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@BarQRCodeBot:二维码机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@attachbot:将图片转换成隐形文字链接<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@nocaption_bot:清除视频文件附带文字<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@letmebot:可进行google,duckduckgo,youtube等搜索<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@multiple_pin_bot :可以在群置顶多条消息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@scihubot : access Scientific Papers for free via SciHub (<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://www.reddit.com/r/TelegramBots/comments/dh94kt/scihubot_access_scientific_papers_for_free_via/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://www.</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">reddit.com/r/TelegramBo</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">ts/comments/dh94kt/scihubot_access_scientific_papers_for_free_via/</span><span class="ellipsis" style="user-select: text !important;"></span></a>)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@QuizBot:测试题<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@alertbot:此机器人建议应用在个人。可以在指定时间后发送指定讯息给自己,是一个提醒工具<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@WikiRobot:周期性在群里发送消息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@sticker_time_bot:每小时发送一张图片提醒时间<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@AntiHyperlinkBot:removes all messages which contain links<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@AntiArabicScriptBot:removes all messages which contain arabic script<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@SpamMeNotBot:protects your group from spam/flood attacks<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@AntiCommandBot:removes all messages which contain a /command<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GroupOwnerBot.:More useful bots for group owners<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@drwebbot:Dr.Web(大蜘蛛)公司推出了一个实验性的 Telegram Bot,它可以检查网页链接和文件,并在包含威胁时发出警告。当你收到一个可疑文件时,可以将其转发到此 Bot 进行检查。注意:此 Bot 不能替代反病毒软件,因为它不能扫描移动设备或计算机,阻止恶意软件和修复受感染的设备。如果您想完全保护您的设备,我们建议您安装 Dr.Web Anti-Virus。将其拉入群组并配置好后,当发现群聊中发送文件存在威胁时,它就会及时提示:哪个文件有威胁,病毒名是什么,便于管理员进一步操作。(建议打开安静模式,让Bot 只有在检测到威胁时才发送通知)。单文件限制20M(Aquamarine)<br style="user-select: text !important;" />群组清理大师@GroupCleanupMasterBot:智能清除广告<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@grep_robot:删除含有黑名单词的发言<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@LookOnbot:广告杀手,只需要删除消息即可协助群管理清除广告,另有众多实用功能,包括禁止关联频道置顶,封杀病毒文件等<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ProtectronBot:删除广告链接,短链接,转发,进出群消息,设置关键字黑名单,禁止刷屏,删除色情图片等,误杀比较多.<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@freqrobot:限制群员发言频率<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@adzhongjiezhe_bot:广告终结者,通过设置关键字来删除违规消息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@DiscussUnpinBot:禁止关联频道群置顶<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@noexebot:自动删除exe、scr、com、cpl后缀的文件<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@daysandbox_bot:删除进群24小时新人转发,图片等信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@watchdog_robot:删除特定类型的信息,例如链接,贴纸,图片,语音信息,文件等等<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@noarab_bot:删除阿拉伯语和波斯语信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@lang_blocker_bot:删除指定语言的信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@HushRobot:禁止群聊天<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@joinhider_bot:删除进群退群提示信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@nohello_robot:删除欢迎信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@jung2_bot 统计群组中用户的发言数<br style="user-select: text !important;" />统计秘书@FengStatsBot:,本秘书做群中各种统计,发言次数等<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@MasterTagAlertBot 管理通知<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@imdb:IMDb查电影信息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@uploadbot 神奇的普通URL網址轉TG檔案,单个文件限制500M,每天限制1GB。如果想更多空間可以買VIP<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@jobs_bot:telegram官方提供工作机会<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@sms24_me :提供电话号码用于接收短信<br style="user-select: text !important;" /><a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="http://teleme.io/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">http://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">teleme.io</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a>:TeleMe 是一款功能强大又方便好用的 Telegram 社群管理 Bot 机器人,收费,有免费额度<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@SearcheeBot:TG频道搜索机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@BotListBot:bot搜索<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@ExploreTelegramBot:查找bot,频道,群,贴纸等<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@GroupHelpBot:群管bot,除了常用的命令,还可以查看近期不活跃名单,设置关键字自动回复<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@LimitatiBot:生成私聊机器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@callAdminsBot:给管理员发消息<br style="user-select: text !important;" />@hexlightning_bot:台灣人自己的黑名單機器人<br style="user-select: text !important;" />参考资料<br style="user-select: text !important;" />BotoStore:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://botostore.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">botostore.com/</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> 一个专门收录telegram bot的国外网站,过滤了垃圾邮件和成人内容的bot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />BotsArchive:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://botsarchive.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">botsarchive.com/</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> Telegram机器人档案,不收录成人内容的bottelegram频道:@BotsArchive<br style="user-select: text !important;" />telegram bot:@BotsArchiveBot<br style="user-select: text !important;" />Search Telegram Bots:<a class=" external" data-za-detail-view-id="1043" href="https://botlist.infotelbot.com/" rel="nofollow noreferrer" style="border-bottom: 1px solid rgb(128, 128, 128); cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;">https://</span><span class="visible" style="user-select: text !important;">botlist.infotelbot.com/</span><span class="invisible" style="background-color: transparent; color: transparent; font-family: a; font-size: 0px; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 0; text-shadow: none; user-select: text !important;"></span></a> 一个按类型查找电报机器人网站</p></div></div></div></div><div class="ContentItem-time" role="button" style="background-color: 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tabindex="0">发布于 2022-07-09 09:46</div><div class="ContentItem-time" role="button" style="color: #8590a6; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-top: 10px; padding: 0px; user-select: text !important;" tabindex="0"><br /></div><div class="ContentItem-time" role="button" style="margin-top: 10px; padding: 0px; user-select: text !important;" tabindex="0"><span style="color: #8590a6; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Helvetica Neue, PingFang SC, Microsoft YaHei, Source Han Sans SC, Noto Sans CJK SC, WenQuanYi Micro Hei, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px;">https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/539480648</span></span></div><div class="ContentItem-time" role="button" style="color: #8590a6; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Helvetica Neue", "PingFang SC", "Microsoft YaHei", "Source Han Sans SC", "Noto Sans CJK SC", "WenQuanYi Micro Hei", sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-top: 10px; padding: 0px; user-select: text !important;" tabindex="0"><br /></div></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-48683468422161413322022-11-18T22:09:00.001-08:002022-11-20T23:33:20.801-08:00合约导师349:散户如何在合约市场稳定盈利百倍收益?<p class="MsoNormal"></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh2pVsuTayCheg229AA0b6DYAKmsyER0xGnbrMk7jmSNB2l8Lr5jg3kQrW4_sa-J14RF8nrxmYYQoTUSDzsQXZSfRF28q5k_d3A85anbwl08zLJfJqf1XTG_8rs8EfvCKvUF-3v4wbMQpEoy0ZXdwdHzi2KwN-bt1O_YQiYud02t9c00tRdp43EWBFg1Q/s680/FH3zEKfaAAAEXBT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="544" height="483" 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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 黄一一黄一一•区块链•<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US">17</span>日上午<span lang="EN-US">12:532020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>日,币安千江月对话币安合约总监<span lang="EN-US">Justin Cheng&</span>币安合约导师<span lang="EN-US">349</span>。直播中币安合约总监<span lang="EN-US">Justin Cheng</span>币安合约导师<span lang="EN-US">349</span>详细的讨论了合约交易中的许多问题,包括交易心态、交易技巧等,干货满满。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安区块<span lang="EN-US">101</span>丨合约导师<span lang="EN-US">349</span>:散户如何在合约市场稳定盈利百倍收益?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>是一名职业操盘手,精通<span lang="EN-US">K</span>线并擅长短线翻倍快速收益,曾经做到<span lang="EN-US">3</span>天本金翻<span lang="EN-US">30</span>倍收益的辉煌战绩。<span lang="EN-US">349</span>认为普通交易者在合约市场很难赚到钱的原因是散户操盘的对手是机构团队、游资团队和一些职业操盘手。散户没有完整的交易制度和合理的仓位管理,完全是靠感觉在操盘。普通交易者想要赚钱首先需要抛弃坏习惯,调整操盘心态、学习操盘技术、合理运用资金和仓位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>和<span lang="EN-US">349</span>介绍币安合约课程是完全免费的,<span lang="EN-US">349</span>在币安合约课程中安排了两部分:<span lang="EN-US">1</span>、基础课程是分享心态管理、仓位管理和基础的操盘技术。<span lang="EN-US">2</span>、进阶课程为大家准备了<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师的<span lang="EN-US">8</span>年时间总结的独家操盘技术。并手把手带着大家实盘中解盘做多、做空。目的是通过跟着<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师系统的学习培养良好的交易习惯,把技术应用到实战中形成自己的交易风格从而获得收益。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 嘉宾观点:“我的操盘习惯是有了一部分的盈利,取出本金用,利润当本金,永远给自己留后路。”<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> “做合约的时候,最重要的是心态的把握,其次再是技术。”<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> “普通用户想要在币圈赚钱首先得抛弃你的交易坏习惯,如果你的坏习惯没有抛弃,那么我们来谈赚钱是非常非常难的。关于怎么去建立好的交易制度,包括仓位管理这些东西,大多数人没有这个经验,但一些前辈肯定有这个经验,那我们要做的是虚心去学习。”<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> “一定不要借钱做交易,一定一定不要把所有的资金包括盈利全部投进去,鸡蛋不要放在一个篮子里。”<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> “我们想在这个市场长期做下去,就需要稳定盈利,稳定去做很重要。”<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> “心态管理和仓位控制很重要,这两个有了以后再学技术,技术学完以后需要不断用你的资金交易操盘,然后把所有的交易经验变成自己的交易习惯和风格。”<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> “不要每次都想着要从鱼头吃到鱼尾,整个趋势的空单和多单,我只需要把中间鱼身子吃到,争取做到每一单有盈利,这样的话自然而然你的心态就会更好,交易更有信心。”<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">1</span>币安千江月:大家好,我是千江月,今天由我主持来《区块<span lang="EN-US">101</span>》的节目。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 今天主题是散户如何在合约市场稳定盈利百倍收益,是我们的合约导师的第二场活动。我们的十位合约导师是币安为大家精挑细选的,在各个领域交易比较有心得体会和经验的一些导师来给大家提供一系列免费的合约课程,所以大家可以关注一下我们合约导师的具体情况。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我们今天嘉宾是币安合约总监<span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>和合约导师<span lang="EN-US">349</span>。这是我们的<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师,我们可以了解一下怎么做到今天主题中的百倍收益。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:<span lang="EN-US">Hello</span>,大家好。关于百倍收益,就是咱们进入合约以后的话,日积月累稳定做一个收益,直至你做到百倍收益,这样的话对我们自己也是一个提升。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">2017</span>年做一个币的百倍收益并不是特别难,只要你能拿得住。合约不一样,合约有多空双方的争夺,不完全是买多的一个操作,而且买多的话是凭运气的,有消息有运气,合约的话完全凭的是实力。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 所以说我也建议咱们如果有兴趣的话,可以今天好好认真听我的一个分享,如果您觉得这个很不错,我建议你去尝试一下,咱们币安这边就是很不错的平台。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:可不可以先介绍一下自己,<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:我叫<span lang="EN-US">349</span>,目前在币安这边进行交易。我目前是一个职业操盘手,大概有<span lang="EN-US">7</span>年的操盘经验。我主要精通<span lang="EN-US">K</span>线,精通<span lang="EN-US">K</span>线语言包括一些波浪理论等等,但最擅长的是短线和波段的操作,比较喜欢分析一些短期的走势,对长期做一个预判。最擅长也是短线快速翻倍收益。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 从<span lang="EN-US">2017</span>年开始,目前在虚拟币合约我们已经做了三到四年。基本上每一年每一个月,资金都是一直在保持增长,但是最好短线收益应该是<span lang="EN-US">2020</span>年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份,做到了三天的本金翻了<span lang="EN-US">30</span>倍的收益,目前在币圈这么多年短线最高的收益。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我的观点和我的操盘习惯是交易有了盈利先取出本金,再用利润当本金继续去交易。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:三天翻<span lang="EN-US">30</span>倍这是什么概念?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:你用心去做可以做到,当然也需要一个机会的配合。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我从<span lang="EN-US">2012</span>年开始接触金融行业,一开始做的是股票。<span lang="EN-US">2013</span>年、<span lang="EN-US">2014</span>年都在股市市场包括股市里面的期货市场,<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年到<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年基本在邮币卡,<span lang="EN-US">2017</span>年中间我们开始进入币圈,包括外汇的一些期货都有接触,只要哪里有机会我们就去哪里。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 当下我觉得所有金融市场在币圈合约机会还是非常大的,<span lang="EN-US">3</span>、<span lang="EN-US">4</span>年以来我个人带团队一直在咱们币圈的合约里面进行交易,到现在为止一直还在这边。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 当然也很感谢咱们的币安平台,给我们一个机会在这里跟大家进行交流进行分享,所以说谢谢币安,感谢币安这边给我这个机会。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:老师太谦虚了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">2Justin</span>:不用客气,希望我们长长久久久地走下去。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 刚才老师提到说过三天<span lang="EN-US">30</span>倍的战绩,我相信大家还是非常感兴趣,跟大家复盘一下当时是怎么回事?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:今年<span lang="EN-US">1</span>月份,<span lang="EN-US">BSV</span>当时是利好,现货翻了两倍多一点,从<span lang="EN-US">100</span>多<span lang="EN-US">USDT</span>的价格拉到<span lang="EN-US">400</span>多。机会很重要,然后你个人判断也非常重要,波动越大你越容易归零。所以说我在做合约的时候,最重要的是心态的把握,其次再是技术。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 当时我是在<span lang="EN-US">BSV</span>里面用<span lang="EN-US">5</span>千美金,当时做到三天不断去短线波段交易,三天做到<span lang="EN-US">20</span>倍左右。接着我又拿着资金继续做比特币包括以太坊合约,总共三天正好做了<span lang="EN-US">30</span>倍的收益,收益以后我又把所有的资金又归整,留下一部分资金继续做其他的合约,是这样一个情况。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:我算了一下<span lang="EN-US">5</span>千美金<span lang="EN-US">30</span>倍,就已经是很可观的了,<span lang="EN-US">15</span>万美金?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:<span lang="EN-US">100</span>多万人民币,三天。可以详细说一说,听下来大部分是<span lang="EN-US">BSV</span>上赚的,能不能讲一下你使用的主要技术方法是什么?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:技术方法是我这么多年交易习惯的积累,我个人操作,包括我这么多年学习,不算是科班出身。有的选手经过系统学习,包括波浪理论、缠论等等系列,他们跟一些大师学习。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我这么多年的交易习惯,主要跟个人和技术相仿或者比我技术略胜一筹的人去互相交流,交流以后吸取别人的优点包括别人做得很好的技术,这样的话我把它融入到我个人交易风格当中,这样的话就形成了一套我个人短线交易风格,周而复始。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我目前主要是做短线和短波段的操作,短线交易,比如做比特币的合约或者以太坊的合约,持仓短线在<span lang="EN-US">5</span>分钟、<span lang="EN-US">30</span>分钟或者一个小时以内,短波段交易持仓在<span lang="EN-US">12</span>小时或者<span lang="EN-US">24</span>小时以内,我是做这样的一个交易者。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:这次<span lang="EN-US">BSV</span>的行情中,你是怎么样抓住大行情的?当这种大级别趋势行情来的时候,能不能给我们的普通朋友们介绍一下,你用什么样的方法去在这种行情中有比较大的盈利?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:我们不管做长线还是做短线,判断一个行情有一定的消息面但更多是技术面,我们看到技术面明显是有量,量价配合等等,技术面其它的<span lang="EN-US">K</span>线、均线能够判断出它在目前的日线、周线级别应该有一波很大的涨幅,但是它能够涨多少我们是不能去预测的,我们预测不到,我们只能根据当下配合去做判断。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我们有一个判断以后,这个时候就应该把资金准备好,但我们一定不需要拿出你全部的资金去做。趋势日线判断你必须要有的,这些东西判断出来以后,你再根据你自己看得懂的方向,包括你看得懂的<span lang="EN-US">K</span>线去操作,你一旦看不懂趋势你一定不要去做,这个很重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 如果你凭着运气凭赌运做交易,你一定在未来合约市场你赚的钱包括本金全部吐回去,这是很关键一点,后面我会给大家详细说这样一个点。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">3Justin</span>:您也说到这儿,合约它还是高风险高收益的市场,在这个市场中,很多普通朋友说是很难赚到钱,我们想问问普通交易者为什么在合约市场很难赚到钱?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:首先是这样,我给大家打一个比喻,我们拿股市市场来作为比喻。股市的市场散户是很庞大的一个群体,<span lang="EN-US">80%</span>到<span lang="EN-US">90%</span>都是散户。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 但是你在股市里面,你面对的对手是谁?首先第一个是交易所,第二个是国家队,第三是公募资金,第四是私募资金,第五是游资,你面对庞大的群体,这些人他们都是团队作战。你一个人,你又不懂基本面,你又没有消息面,技术面你也不懂,各种题材包括龙头你也不会分析,所以你在股市里面肯定亏钱。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 反过来到币圈也是一样道理,作为散户来说你又不懂心态管理,你又不懂仓位管理,你又不懂去看消息面。其它的团队都是团队作战,有自己的几个人的分析师,当然也有团队的领袖,他会分析大势,分析我们当下用什么仓位去做,现在属于什么行情,这些东西都非常非常重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 所以说散户没有好的心态,也没有完整的交易制度,也没有合理的仓位完全去赌,十赌九输,这个时候你必输无疑,所以大部分散户在合约里面是亏损是因为这个原因。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 你的亏损是给谁赚去了,是给那些大的团队,包括一些他懂得这些方面操作的散户赚去了。这是一个很公平的市场,大家靠自己的努力去赚钱,交易所包括比特币给我们提供了公平的平台,你觉得你自己应不应该把这些事做好,懂得去管理自己的心态,懂得管理自己的仓位,交易制度,这时候我相信你会得到不一样的结果。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:让我们听起来很绝望,普通用户看起来很难赚到钱。我们普通用户能不能赚到钱,怎么样才能赚到钱?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:能,肯定能赚到钱,因为我就是这条路这么过来的,这么多年从交易出发,我也认识很多交易的朋友,当然币圈目前在我认识的朋友也是最多的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 这个时候我们怎么能够赚到钱,首先你得抛弃你的坏习惯,如果你的坏习惯没有抛弃,那么我们来谈赚钱是非常非常难的。我们怎么去建立好的交易制度,包括我刚刚说的仓位管理这些东西,大多数人没有这个经验,但一些前辈肯定有这个经验,那我们要做的是虚心去学习。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 如果我们没有学习的话,就是摸着石头过河。我这么多年走过来,前面三到四年是很坎坷的,有过失败也有赚到第一桶金,但是这个路走得很难。为什么?一直没有一个名师或者比我懂得更多的要伙伴去带领我,一直都是自己摸爬滚打过来,还是很辛苦的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我就希望这么多年我个人包括我们平台这么多老师来这边做一个分享,希望有一部分散户能够听到咱们的课程,觉得这个老师说得有道理有用,这个时候我们可以去虚心学习,学完以后那你就有了一个完整交易制度。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 老师经常提醒你的心态管理,然后老师让你怎么配置仓位,这个时候你肯定能够在这个市场去赚到很多没有学技术的没有学课程那一部分人钱,对不对?这个时候我们再过三五个月或者一年,我相信你会得到一个很不一样的结果。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:您能不能讲讲您进阶的过程,您的技术心态如何提升上来的?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:这些经验都是从哪总结出来的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:经验都是从吃亏当中总结过来的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:怎么吃亏的,让我们高兴一下。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:你太坏了。我踩的一个比较大的坑应该是<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年,当时我正好在股市里面有了很多的盈利也做一些股市的股票交易,包含一些当时的期货交易,挣了一部分钱,买了房子装修,剩下所有的资金投入到一个平台去交易。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 正好当时这个平台出问题了,最后全军覆没,钱也没有要回来等等,可以说比较落魄了,这个时候我们踩了很重要的坑,把鸡蛋放在一个篮子里面,我从这件事当中学会了,从今以后我们在任何市场交易,一定不要把所有的资金投进去。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 第二,一定不要贷款做交易。第三,一定一定不要把所有的资金包括盈利全部投进去,当然在后面的交易,在<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年的时候我用剩下的其它地方的一些资金获得了将近<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍的收益,后面我又翻身回来了。从那以后,我时刻如履薄冰,每一刻交易都遵守我的原则,一定不要把所有的资金投入你所在的市场。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 比如说我们的合约,这个市场永远不缺钱,你有多少钱都不够亏的,这个时候你有<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万还是<span lang="EN-US">100</span>万还是<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万,都不要把所有资金投入进来。我们可以做一个配比,你有<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万元,我建议<span lang="EN-US">3</span>到<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万投入进来,剩下一部分,哪怕你失败了,你还有翻身的机会。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">3</span>到<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万,如果我们在这个市场通过学习以后,你能够在短时期以内有了很好的一个收益,这个时候比如说我们<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元,你赚到<span lang="EN-US">20</span>万,这个时候我的建议是你一定要把你的盈利<span lang="EN-US">15</span>万元其中的<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万元拿出去,你留下这<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万元再交易,哪怕运气再差,亏损<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万还有<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万本金,这个时候你的利润其实就是你的本金了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 这个时候你拿这个利润当本金去做,哪怕亏到<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万,甚至亏没有了,你还有<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万元,你可以拿出<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万元继续这样做,周而复始,哪怕有坑哪怕有失败你都不会跌倒,你也只会永远稳步向前走,这是很重要的一点。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我希望大家在今后的合约道路中一定要注意这一点,不要把你所有的资金全部投入进去。后面我会跟大家说到心态管理,你没有把所有的资金放到一个篮子里面时,这个时候你的心态会产生一个很好的变化,我没有很大仓位,我的压力很小,这时候我大脑的反应和思维都是很清晰的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 如果你很大的仓位包括所有的资金投入进去梭哈了,这个时候你的心态会变的,你已经产生一个赌徒心理,觉得我买的一定对的,我买的一定涨,最后的结果你一定是爆仓。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:果然是老交易员箴言,讲的是心理管理、仓位管理。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:我简单和大家说一下,后面我会在币安这边有课程,详细把这些东西一一阐述,今天时间有限,可能没有办法完全和大家去做一个交流,但后面我们机会多多。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">4Justin</span>:欢迎大家参与合约课程。心态管理这么重要,有什么比较重要的原则和方法?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:关于心态管理,我们每个人做事情都是拿出一个很平常的心态去做事,但是如果你遇到非常紧张的时刻,比如说我们开车的时候,你速度开得很快,前面出了事故,这个时候你会紧张,紧张以后你就会判断失误,你失误率会增高,这时候就是得不偿失。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我们现在来说心态管理,第一点就是需要把你的仓位降下来,杠杆降下来,你所买的合约,我的建议是每一单不要超过<span lang="EN-US">5</span>倍杠杆,最高的杠杆,你的全仓资金不要超过<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍杠杆。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 你做<span lang="EN-US">15</span>倍、<span lang="EN-US">20</span>倍杠杆可以,但咱们今天课程说得很重要的一点<span lang="EN-US">——</span>稳定盈利,如果你想做到稳定盈利的话,这一点非常重要,你的杠杆一定不要高。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:我们给用户的默认杠杆其实是<span lang="EN-US">20</span>倍,然后我们后台会看数据有多少人会把杠杆调低,有多少人调低,我们是有一个滑动轴,大家可以自动选。我们其实本来以为像老师刚才讲的大部分用户会把杠杆调低,其实结果我们看不是这样,大部分用户把杠杆调上去了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:为什么大部分散户是亏的,就是这个原因。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:我们看到有<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>的用户,会把杠杆调到<span lang="EN-US">100</span>倍或者<span lang="EN-US">125</span>倍。我们一直跟大家讲你要管理好自己的风险,你要选择适合自己的杠杆倍数,我们为什么会提供这个高杠杆,即使你用这个高杠杆,你要明白自己是在干什么。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 比如现在有一波大行情,我想用一个高杠杆来博一把,我心理有预期,这个仓位会被强行平仓,你知道自己在干什么是最重要的,那你可以用。可能大多数时候如果是一直用<span lang="EN-US">100</span>倍、<span lang="EN-US">125</span>倍杠杆,任何时候都是这么高,都是全仓,你输掉是大概率的事情。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:每个人的操作风格不同,有一部分人操作风格是他会抓行情,比如说这个启动点能上涨<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>、<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>的行情,这个时候他会很精准在启动位开<span lang="EN-US">100</span>倍杠杆。如果<span lang="EN-US">100</span>倍杠杆,比如说他开了一万美金的额度,开<span lang="EN-US">100</span>倍杠杆,一旦爆掉会亏<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 但是如果他盈利的话,会盈利多少呢?会盈利<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万或者<span lang="EN-US">20</span>万,有这样的人利用小资金赌大收益,小资金爆了,可能就亏<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金,跟我说的稳定盈利道理有相同点。我们开很小的仓位,这个仓位开小一点,把自己的本金保留一部分,每个杠杆它都有自己的操作方法。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 所以我的建议是,如果自己追求一个稳定盈利包含长期的一个很好的心态掌握,那我的建议是,我们开<span lang="EN-US">5</span>到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍杠杆,当然如果是非常非常确定性的机会,我们略微调高一点杠杆,这个时候我们周而复始去交易,最后一年两年下来,我相信你会得到一个质的提升。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:我问一句,您开<span lang="EN-US">5</span>到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍杠杆是比较短时间,几分钟到几个小时,你一般抓什么级别的行情,比如说用<span lang="EN-US">5</span>到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍的杠杆是比特币波动多少的行情?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:比特币起码在<span lang="EN-US">100</span>刀以上,<span lang="EN-US">100</span>刀以上行情的话,也就相当于目前一个点,一个点开<span lang="EN-US">5</span>倍,相当于一个点也就<span lang="EN-US">5%</span>的收益。那你想一下你一天能做两到三次或者三到四次的交易,一天的收益有<span lang="EN-US">10%</span>的话,以一万美金的本金为例,一个月有<span lang="EN-US">300%</span>的收益很难做到,我们降低标准一个月<span lang="EN-US">100%</span>的收益,一年是<span lang="EN-US">1000%</span>的收益,这个很重要很关键。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">5</span>币安千江月:咱们策略里面,一般止损的话会设在多少止损?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:止损的话看行情,如果行情判断错误需要立刻止损。但是我们如果判断正确,一般是不需要止损,如果我们止损我们可以设置<span lang="EN-US">30</span>到<span lang="EN-US">50</span>刀的止损空间,这样用<span lang="EN-US">30</span>刀到<span lang="EN-US">50</span>刀的止损去赚<span lang="EN-US">100</span>刀、<span lang="EN-US">200</span>刀、<span lang="EN-US">300</span>刀的行情,做十次成功率七成以上,你可以算一下你的收益是多少。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:您刚才提到您有比较重要的交易原则,可不可以介绍一下您总结出来比较重要的交易原则?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:我用最多的交易原则包括仓位管理这个是后期我会给大家详细去讲,我们会给大家分享比如说<span lang="EN-US">MACD</span>的一些运用,以及我个人的一些心得,还有<span lang="EN-US">MA</span>均线的一些运用。还有布林的运用,我会用到我个人的使用参数去跟大家分享。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 还有插针的运用,我们可以看到平时在行情中遇到很多插针行情,这个时候会给大家分享一下插针的运用包括后面我独门半分位的操盘技术包括我个人用得比较多的三角收敛术等等,这些技术我都会接下来分享给大家,在这里的话我就简单一带而过。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:我们的课程内容后续还是很丰富的。您在交易过程当中有没有顿悟时刻,比如说哪一次亏损或者盈利你印象特别特别深刻,从此之后感觉自己的交易水平上了一个层次?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:有,我去年有段时间走入一个误区,我相信可能有一部分人都是有体会的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 去年有一段行情不是特别好,我不断用大资金去操作,做合约,波动又小,经常会触及止损位或者亏损手续费去交易,有一段时间形成一个恶性循环。什么意思呢?当时我是<span lang="EN-US">2</span>万多美金的仓位,不断亏损,亏损到最后,只剩下<span lang="EN-US">1</span>千多美金,当然这个时候我的建议是不要去加资金,一定记住这一点,如果在今后的操盘或者前面的操盘,你在遇到大幅亏损你一定要冷静下来不要追加资金操盘。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 这个时候可以怎么做?我当时的做法是剩下<span lang="EN-US">1</span>千美金以后,我就用这一千美金去交易,保持低杠杆,保持低仓位,不断用以前的技术包括刚刚我和大家说的很多类似技术后面我会跟大家分享。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 当时我用<span lang="EN-US">1</span>千美金做回到<span lang="EN-US">5</span>千美金的时候,大概在一个多小时,做了<span lang="EN-US">5</span>、<span lang="EN-US">6</span>倍的收益,后面我又把资金加到<span lang="EN-US">2</span>万美金,我就又继续保持很好的心态去交易,这一点也是很关键的。感觉是什么呢?你在这个市场杀红眼,杀红眼以后做的所有东西都是错的,很容易错非常容易错。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:还跟心态有关。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:对,很有关,下面一个朋友说一千<span lang="EN-US">U</span>又怎么低仓位。你用一百<span lang="EN-US">U</span>去做,每次开一百<span lang="EN-US">U</span>两百<span lang="EN-US">U</span>的仓位,开<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍或者<span lang="EN-US">20</span>倍的杠杆,这个时候最多<span lang="EN-US">4</span>倍杠杆,这个时候去做对你的心态管理很好。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:心态很重要,不是亏下去,你好像觉得亏<span lang="EN-US">100</span>、<span lang="EN-US">200</span>刀没有感觉,其实你是从过程当中把情绪缓过来。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:对,不管你是多少本金,<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金<span lang="EN-US">1</span>千美金<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万美金,都可以,都需要去做一个仓位的分配,钱少没关系,我在这个市场见过太多的伙伴,用很低的资金,<span lang="EN-US">1</span>千美金、<span lang="EN-US">2</span>千美金,最后做到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万美金,几十万美金太多了,数不胜数,为什么人家能做到?人家懂得比我们多,人家懂得仓位管理,人家懂得心态调整,哪怕别人有失败。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">3</span>月<span lang="EN-US">11</span>号那天,我当时在抄底以太坊,因为极端行情,插针行情在<span lang="EN-US">10</span>秒钟之内暴跌<span lang="EN-US">10</span>个点左右,我的仓位大概亏了有<span lang="EN-US">70%</span>左右,我快速把资金后面加到<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>的这样一个程度,当天利用我们以前的技术,把亏损的盈利回来了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 天灾没有办法,这种不属于天灾,属于极端行情,我们买进去没有下跌,突然十秒钟的行情扎下去,扎了十个点,没办法控制,瞬间拉回来。然后我用<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>的资金继续交易,当天我是把所有的亏损盈利回来,应该是<span lang="EN-US">180%</span>的收益。所以说行情很重要,我们学好技术,把仓位管理运用好,这个时候很重要的一点就来了,我们运气也就是说行情的配合也是很重要的,如果有大行情我们一定要多盈利去多操作。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 如果行情比较差,比如最近的行情,横盘比较多,这时候我们减少操作,一天操作一单两单三单,这个时候可能收益没有以前高,但仍然有一个稳定的收益,每个月至少有<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>到<span lang="EN-US">60%</span>的收益,那我觉得作为散户来说有这样心态平衡发展,平衡去做,稳定去做,那这个时候你比身边人已经好很多很多了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:很多人会一把梭哈,一定要做好仓位管理。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">6Justin</span>:刚才有一个朋友说<span lang="EN-US">3.12</span>是天灾,这个我真是一定要跟大家讲,像<span lang="EN-US">3.12</span>这种行情在币圈基本上每一年发生一次或者一两年发生一两次,你一定要有这种心理准备。我们不是说不能亏钱,而是要想好当这种行情来的时候我们怎么办?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 要有应对措施,从概率上讲赚钱就好,千万不能觉得市场不会有一天跌<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>、<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>,<span lang="EN-US">3.12</span>这一天跌了<span lang="EN-US">40%</span>,开个<span lang="EN-US">5</span>倍杠杆,你觉得很安全就梭哈,那基本上你每年要被洗劫一两次,这是必然的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我有一个特别想问的,专业的交易员在<span lang="EN-US">3.12</span>行情还是赚钱的,能不能给普通用户讲讲为什么是这样,为什么专业用户总是能抓住这种行情?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:前面我也跟大家分享了,首先你要判断大势,<span lang="EN-US">“</span>顺势而为<span lang="EN-US">”</span>,这四字非常重要,一定顺势而为,当行情出现波段下跌而且没有加速下跌以前,尤其是加速以前,一定不要轻易去抄底,这个时候抄底就是逆势而为,逢高走空。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 逢高走空,说起来很简单,做起来非常难,我们要有一个很好的技术面去配合自己。看到能看明白的点位,去开设空单,这时候大波段下跌肯定是赚钱。有这个盈利以后,切记仓位管理。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 哪怕你前面对了<span lang="EN-US">10</span>次,用<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金赚到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>美金,但最后一单把<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万美金冲进去豪赌,可能错一次就全部亏完。哪怕前面对了<span lang="EN-US">9</span>次,我们用<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金赚了<span lang="EN-US">9</span>万美金,最后错一次,我们仍然用<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金去做,把<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金亏完我们还剩<span lang="EN-US">8</span>万美金盈利,这个很重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:千万不要梭哈。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:梭哈有梭哈的好处,但是我们想在这个市场长期做下去,需要稳定盈利,稳定去做很重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:非常认同这个概念,你刚才讲的我挺有感触。因为我们也接触过这种专业的交易员,大部分的专业交易员遵守顺势而为的策略在做,专业交易员大部分时候都是稳定盈利,不然他在这个市场其实生存不下来。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 他如果能以这个事情作为他的职业,但是好像每一个专业员都会遇到低谷的时候,连续几个星期甚至长的时候到几个月,原来那套不<span lang="EN-US">work</span>,从<span lang="EN-US">2</span>万美金亏到<span lang="EN-US">1</span>千美金的时候,我相信这个状态是非常非常很痛苦的,你能不能跟我们讲熬过这个低谷阶段?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:很重要的一点,一定是你有盈利的话要拿出去,前面我是一带而过讲了,现在我把这个以重点跟大家分享,我在这么多年的交易市场,在账户里面放了十万元,这一个月在操盘的时候我一定把这<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万元拿出去,这个时候你的利润就成了你的本金,你的本金已经到了你的银行卡。然后你再用<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万交易,下个月再盈利<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万乃至<span lang="EN-US">20</span>万。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 你需要把所有资金拿出去一大部分,剩下<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万或者<span lang="EN-US">15</span>万或者是<span lang="EN-US">20</span>万左右,你再去交易。你每个月或者每一周都这样做,最后得到的结果是什么?一年下来你有三次亏损,有七次盈利,七个月盈利三个月亏损,亏损以后一个月下来,如果不够<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万元,你可以把这个仓位加到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万元,加<span lang="EN-US">2</span>到<span lang="EN-US">3</span>万或者<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万进去,又变成<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万,这个时候你再去交易,一年下来我相信你的账户里面仍然是<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万到<span lang="EN-US">20</span>十万,但是你的银行卡有<span lang="EN-US">50</span>万、<span lang="EN-US">60</span>万资金了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 这个时候如果你再从<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万或者<span lang="EN-US">2</span>万美金,亏到<span lang="EN-US">1000</span>美金,起码不会没有退路,我卡里面有<span lang="EN-US">500</span>万,我有退路,不会轻易触碰底线,放平心态拿<span lang="EN-US">1000</span>美金交易,我们会得到什么结果?你再去交易,得到更好的收益,这个时候你<span lang="EN-US">1</span>千做到<span lang="EN-US">2</span>千、<span lang="EN-US">3</span>千,小资金累计到中部资金是很简单的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 但是如果大资金想要突破比较难,<span lang="EN-US">1000</span>美金做到<span lang="EN-US">5000</span>美金不是非常非常难的,但你做到<span lang="EN-US">5000</span>,这个时候仍然可以把资金加到<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万或者<span lang="EN-US">2</span>万美金再继续做。我这么多年一直是这样。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:我特别特别认同,我们普通用户如果不是自己操作,就不是特别理解这个有多重要,我觉得这个东西甚至有时候比交易技术都重要,你看真正赚钱的人怎么做的,他亏的时候是亏小钱,这次亏了下次亏了,无所谓,他止损,等到趋势真的来的时候,专业交易员往往能抓住这一波挣很大一笔钱。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 当他们赚到的时候,把很大一部分拿出去落袋为安,真的成为自己的盈利。你看我们普通用户往往都是反过来,你赚的时候赚一点就走了,一波做错就扛单,一下亏光。盈利的时候你可能没有取出来,你高兴我今天赚钱了,觉得可以了,你就放更多钱进去,一把可能全亏光,正好是相反的,所以这个东西其实特别重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:有些散户是这样的,比如说他拿<span lang="EN-US">500</span>美金、<span lang="EN-US">1000</span>美金做盘,做了十次觉得挺好,我的感觉上来了我这次做得非常好,拿<span lang="EN-US">10</span>万美金去做,一旦亏了<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万美金吓死了,这个时候又说亏那么多,怎么办?我还是拿<span lang="EN-US">500</span>美金去做吧,做了几天又觉得很好,又拿<span lang="EN-US">5</span>万美金去做,一下又亏了<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>,周而复始,很多人是这样的一个状态。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我说一下我目前的交易风格,我们仓位怎么管理?我们拿一万美金来做案例,案例以后我个人建议你在咱们币安这边把杠杆设置<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍或者<span lang="EN-US">20</span>倍都可以,我们第一单,我们觉得这个点位可以做空,那么我们可以去开<span lang="EN-US">20%</span>到<span lang="EN-US">25%</span>的仓位,第一单不要超过<span lang="EN-US">25%</span>的仓位。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 第二单如果确定了刚刚说的做空,确定了下跌,我们可以进行加仓,或者我们卖入空单进入上涨,我们有方法判断出来它的顶部,这个时候我们加仓,也是加<span lang="EN-US">25%</span>,这是一比一的比例加一单,这时候仓位是<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>,如果出现下跌,那这样我们怎么去止盈,止盈也很重要,我们在盈利一部分以后我们需要先做一个加仓的仓位的止盈。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 什么意思?假如说比特币在<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金我们做空,它涨到<span lang="EN-US">10100</span>美金我们加仓了,这个时候我们成本是<span lang="EN-US">10050</span>美金,这个时候跌到<span lang="EN-US">9900</span>的时候,应该跌了<span lang="EN-US">150</span>美金,我们需要做一半仓的止盈,这一半仓位我们是盈利,我们从<span lang="EN-US">10100</span>美金赚到<span lang="EN-US">9900</span>美金,已经赚了<span lang="EN-US">200</span>美金,哪怕我们判断失误,它再拉回去,拉到<span lang="EN-US">10050</span>美金,我们剩下的仓位就算原价止盈,这个时候我们依然有<span lang="EN-US">25%</span>的仓位是盈利<span lang="EN-US">200</span>美金。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 如果行情出现继续下跌,我们继续分<span lang="EN-US">50%</span>仓位去止盈。所以说你能够保证每一单都是盈利这个很关键,如果我们没有出现加仓情况,我们在<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万美金做空跌到<span lang="EN-US">9700</span>、<span lang="EN-US">9800</span>、<span lang="EN-US">9600</span>,这个时候没有办法<span lang="EN-US">100%</span>判断这个位置是最低点,我们止盈或者<span lang="EN-US">2.5</span>去止盈。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我们想卖出<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>的仓位,剩下<span lang="EN-US">70%</span>的舱位再找低点卖出<span lang="EN-US">30%</span>,剩下<span lang="EN-US">40%</span>的仓位,哪怕拉回一万美金你全部卖出,你前面的<span lang="EN-US">60%</span>仓位也是盈利的。这一点我相信很多伙伴没有注意过,这是很重要的一点,也就说仓位的管理,仓位需要这样做管理。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 不要每次都想着我要从鱼头吃到鱼尾,整个做趋势的空单和多单,我只需要把中间鱼身子吃到,争取做到每一单有盈利,这样的话自然而然你的心态就会更好,交易更有信心,这一点我做的是对的。那么十次这样交易,三次错的七次对的或者八次对的,以后遇到这样的图形你就知道怎么做。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 但是你不这样做,比如说<span lang="EN-US">1</span>万做空跌到<span lang="EN-US">9500</span>,你已经赚了很多,你买<span lang="EN-US">10</span>个比特币你已经赚了<span lang="EN-US">5</span>千美金了,你舍不得卖,这时候反向拉盘,拉到<span lang="EN-US">10300</span>怎么办?割肉,这个时候会打击你的信心,下次遇到同样的行情,你就不敢做了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">7Justin</span>:我们今天时间也差不多了,老师也提到了课程一些内容,最后再详细跟我们梳理一下我们的课程都会有哪些内容给到大家。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:好的,是这样,我在咱们这边准备的课程蛮多的,我给大家准备了两部分课程。课程都是通过币安这个平台免费分享。第一部分是跟大家说,仓位和心态的管理,仓位心态的管理一定是详细的给大家把这些东西全部分享,以课程的方式分享给大家,这是第一个,首先需要学的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 第二个,我们分享的东西是短线的交易和超短线交易技术面,技术面分享的是这么多,有基础课程和进阶课程。基础课程教大家从<span lang="EN-US">K</span>线的认识和<span lang="EN-US">MA</span>均线用法包括<span lang="EN-US">MACD</span>的用法和波浪理论等等<span lang="EN-US">MACD</span>的背离,包括布林的运用。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 进阶课程,包括半分位的操盘术,包括三针用法,出针的点位,布林的操盘术、三角收敛,还有我个人超短线和高频交易的准则,最后是毕业的梳理,我能够给大家带来的分享是短线交易,如果有喜欢短线交易的伙伴们,可以后面参加我的课程,我把这些东西全部分享给大家。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 首先教你什么呢?心态管理和仓位控制,这两个有了以后再学技术,技术学完以后,你需要做到什么?你不断用你的资金交易操盘,然后把所有的交易经验变成你自己的。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 这个技术是我给大家分享,你需要不断去交易,在交易途中,在币安这边我都可以给大家做一个实盘的指导,包括我个人的一些建议,都会给大家分享。最后你再去交易,到最后变成你自己的一个东西,别人的技术是别人的,你学了交易了才能变成你自己的,这个很重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:这个我们可以说一下<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师在我们这边有账号,我们也知道他的账号,他的交易量包括他团队还是蛮不错的,<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师说说你的团队,包括普通朋友感兴趣能不能加入你的团队?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:我的团队在币安有一个群,大家可以通过我们的客服去加,加完以后参加我的小群,把所有的经验跟大家分享,首先跟大家分享刚刚说的技术面包括我们的心态这方面,最后我也会在群里尽量有时间会把今后我个人的一些操作实盘带大家去做。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 交易技术,你可能看懂了,但是不会用,我在实盘途中看到某个技术点符合,我会把这个技术点在群里剖析,该做多还是做空,技术面在实盘当中带大家运用,运用以后你能够感受到当时的这个盘面,接下来看到这个盘面行情是怎么样的,自然而然在今后交易中有这个习惯,我相信你肯定会有所收获。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">8</span>币安千江月:那谢谢今天老师的分享,再留一些机会给大家,有什么问题想问<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师还可以再问,有同学问你为什么叫<span lang="EN-US">349</span>?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:我<span lang="EN-US">2015</span>年的时候有过一次滑铁卢的经历,在一个交易品种当中开设的账户尾数是<span lang="EN-US">349</span>,这个账户是我的幸运账户,在<span lang="EN-US">2016</span>年做了一个<span lang="EN-US">10</span>倍的收益,这个账户对我印象深刻,它的尾数<span lang="EN-US">349</span>,所以我一直沿用这个名字<span lang="EN-US">349</span>。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:第二个问题,心态管理看什么书籍?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:心态管理是交易当中不断锻炼自己,打个比方你小时候学骑自行车,你看书学不会骑自行车,但是你每一次去做去骑,给你增加信心,就会延续这个操作。所以心态管理我个人是没有什么书推荐给大家的,当然也不是佛系,心态非常重要。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 我们在交易途中把这个仓位包括交易习惯这些东西综合起来,其实它就是心态管理。综合起来它形成自己的风格,形成以后你就按照这个做,如果不是这个风格所产生的一些交易,那抛弃就行了。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:所以它是来自于实践。上他的免费合约课程,大家一定抓住机会,我们提供都是免费课程,实践出真知。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 这周就准备开课了,我们现在币安交割合约也开始启动大赛,<span lang="EN-US">6</span>月<span lang="EN-US">30</span>号开始到<span lang="EN-US">7</span>月<span lang="EN-US">15</span>号,我们参与币安交割合约比赛可以赢取<span lang="EN-US">20</span>万美元<span lang="EN-US">BNB</span>的奖励,大家可以在币安官网首页了解一下交割合约大赛一个具体详情,多多参与有很多奖励。有收益、有实力,还有运气奖,大家可以关注一下。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">Justin</span>:我们这次拿出很大的诚意,<span lang="EN-US">20</span>万美金,刚刚月月提到,交易量很大,我们有交易量奖,你实力很强我们有实力奖,你就是小白,我们有幸运奖,一边跟<span lang="EN-US">349</span>老师学习,一边领我们的奖项。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 币安千江月:可以拼人品也可以拼实力,大家各显身手。还有朋友问,怎么判断买点和卖点?<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> <span lang="EN-US">349</span>:这个问题非常非常难说,一两句说不清,我简单说一下。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;"> 判断买点和卖点,要去做出一个选择,你做的是长线还是短线还是波段,这一点很重要。如果你做的是长线,你的买点一定是很多笔资金,分很多次进入,因为长线买入买的是阶段性区域,你买的是底部区域,底部区域不可能一天形成,你需要多次买入。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 27.75pt;"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;">卖出也是,不断到新高到顶部还有次新高,次新高以后不能去新高了,这个时候你作为长线的卖点。作为短线的买点和卖点也是不一样,短线的买点,我们看到某个行情上涨,量价背离了,这个时候在顶部出现一个上针的一<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
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<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent: 27.75pt;"><span face=""霞鹜文楷等宽 Light"" style="font-size: 14pt;">声明:本文由入驻基智地平台的作者撰写,观点仅代表作者本人,不代表基智地立场;基智地发布此信息的目的在于传播更多信息,与本站立场无关。<span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></span></p>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-46835643408584323462022-11-17T22:44:00.001-08:002022-11-20T23:33:06.003-08:00推特网友 Bear Liu介绍自己的英语学习经验<h1 class="chakra-text css-1ces1gy" style="background-color: #f7fafc; border-color: var(--chakra-colors-gray-200); border-style: solid; border-width: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.58; margin: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important;"><div class="row mb-4" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.84); display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; font-family: "lucida grande", "lucida sans unicode", "lucida sans", Geneva, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; font-weight: inherit; margin-bottom: 1.5rem !important; margin-left: -15px; margin-right: -15px; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;"><div class="col-12 d-flex justify-content-end" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex !important; flex: 0 0 100%; justify-content: flex-end !important; max-width: 100%; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; position: relative; user-select: text !important; width: 730px;"><form action="https://threadreaderapp.com/account/readLater/1593451418371100674" class="gaClickEvent pr-2" data-action="read-later" data-category="threadbuttons" data-label="top" method="post" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-right: 0.5rem !important; user-select: text !important;"><br /></form></div></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593451418371100674" dir="auto" id="tweet_1" style="background: rgb(245, 248, 250); border-radius: 15px; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: lato, sans-serif; font-size: 1.7rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.5; margin-bottom: 20px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding-top: 20px; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">我不是英语专业,也没在国外留过学,刚到新西兰时35岁,别人说英语我只会回答yes,因为大都听不懂。6年后,我在洋人公司工作,业余时间带洋人学生,是设计与软件行业论坛的演讲嘉宾,也经常用英文采访。打算用这个thread,不定期记录和分享一些使用英文在沟通的心得和技巧。建议收藏😀 <a class="entity-hashtag" href="https://threadreaderapp.com/hashtag/%E7%8B%97%E7%86%8A%E6%9C%89%E8%AF%9D%E8%AF%B4" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1da1f2; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;">#狗熊有话说</a><span class="row justify-content-center entity-multiple-2" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex; flex-wrap: wrap; justify-content: center !important; margin-left: -15px; margin-right: -15px; user-select: text !important;"><span class="col-md-6" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex: 0 0 50%; max-width: 50%; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; position: relative; user-select: text !important; width: 365px;"><span class="entity-image" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; text-align: center; user-select: text !important;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh0TnnWX0AEftru.jpg" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1da1f2; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><img alt="Image" class=" b-loaded" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh0TnnWX0AEftru.jpg" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-radius: 15px; border: 1px solid rgb(225, 232, 237); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.8rem; margin: 10px 0px 0px; max-width: 100%; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: middle; width: 335px;" /></a></span></span><span class="col-md-6" style="box-sizing: border-box; flex: 0 0 50%; max-width: 50%; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; position: relative; user-select: text !important; width: 365px;"><span class="entity-image" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; text-align: center; user-select: text !important;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh0TnnbXwAY6v2P.jpg" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0056b3; cursor: pointer; opacity: 0.8; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><img alt="Image" class=" b-loaded" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh0TnnbXwAY6v2P.jpg" style="background: rgb(255, 255, 255); border-radius: 15px; border: 1px solid rgb(225, 232, 237); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.8rem; margin: 10px 0px 0px; max-width: 100%; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: middle; width: 335px;" /></a></span></span></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593451838313230336" dir="auto" id="tweet_2" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">1 / 成年人学习英语用于工作,最大也是最难的一个问题,是量不够。用那些“一天背10个单词”或是“一天10分钟”的方式,以大多数中国人大学毕业后的水平,要想达到能自由听说读,可能需要三辈子吧。要掌握英语就像职业运动员训练一样,首先是训练量要保证。 <span class="tw-permalink" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cccccc; display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 12px;"><span class="fas fa-link" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593452456037732352" dir="auto" id="tweet_3" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">2 / 如果要想出国,一天最少最少一小时认真滴训练英语,低于这个量,呵呵那还是算了。一般两个小时会比较好。但就是以每天两小时的量,大概也至少需要一年,才能看到明显的提升。所以很多人在Twitter上牢骚半天,但真正把语言搞定的人却很少很少。 <span class="tw-permalink" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cccccc; display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 12px;"><span class="fas fa-link" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593455146230771712" dir="auto" id="tweet_4" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">3 / 要想考试,那当然是刷题。要想实用,必须扔掉刷题思维。所谓“刷题思维”,就是认为有答案,而且是标准答案,其实最难的不是答案,而是提出问题。其中一个问题,是找出“元问题”,就是那种一旦解决,就可以开启接下来一系列可能性的问题。对我当年来说,英语的元问题是发音。 <span class="tw-permalink" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cccccc; display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 12px;"><span class="fas fa-link" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593456532704088065" dir="auto" id="tweet_5" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">4 / 因为我来到新西兰找的第一份工作是洋人公司(很幸运),但交流上有些障碍:我说的话带有口音,纯kiwi有时听不太懂。所以我决定将发音问题集中突破。新西兰口音偏英式发音,经过调研,我在Udemy上购买了一个英国小哥制作的发音课程,决定练习并纠正自己的口音。 <span class="tw-permalink" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cccccc; display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 12px;"><span class="fas fa-link" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593457320872509440" dir="auto" id="tweet_6" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">5 / 当时真正认真花在发音训练学习的时间,大概就是一周多一点,总的10个小时。但却一举让我明白了一些发音上的细节,以及需要注意的地方,甚至也明白了英式美式发音的根本区别,比如卷舌。这就解锁了之后我的其他练习,比如去混meetup,去参加toastmaster,等等。突破元问题很重要。 <span class="tw-permalink" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cccccc; display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 12px;"><span class="fas fa-link" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593462645587611648" dir="auto" id="tweet_7" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">6 / 一个你马上可以用的技巧:把你的手机、app、电脑、工作或学习的软件的默认语言设置成英文。牺牲一点点自己习惯的舒适,换取对于另外一种语言的熟悉感。连微信这些应用都有英文版的,你不会被困住的。输入法调成中文就行。 <span class="tw-permalink" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cccccc; display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 12px;"><span class="fas fa-link" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593470084781342720" dir="auto" id="tweet_8" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">7 / 更进一步,能不能把看剧和看电影的字幕关掉?我当时就是关掉,看完了《纸牌屋》和《硅谷》,说实话80%听不懂,甚至看不懂剧情,但我的目的是训练听力,所以其实看不懂也是好事:就像真正在生活中,也会听不懂,也没有字幕。我当时甚至在iPad上贴了条纸条,遮住视频上的字幕。<span class="entity-image" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: block; text-align: center; user-select: text !important;"><a href="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh0kl-FaMAAwjQ8.jpg" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1da1f2; cursor: pointer; text-decoration-line: none; user-select: text !important;" target="_blank"><img alt="Image" class=" b-loaded" src="https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fh0kl-FaMAAwjQ8.jpg" style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; border-radius: 15px; border: 1px solid rgb(225, 232, 237); box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0.8rem; margin: 10px 0px 0px; max-width: 100%; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: middle; width: 677px;" /></a></span></div><div class="content-tweet allow-preview" data-action="click->thread#showTweet" data-controller="thread" data-screenname="bearbig" data-tweet="1593486266191912960" dir="auto" id="tweet_9" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; cursor: pointer; font-family: charter, Georgia, Cambria, "times new roman", Times, serif; font-size: 1.1875rem; font-weight: inherit; letter-spacing: -0.003em; line-height: 1.58; margin-bottom: 1.25rem; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;">8 / 一个常见的错误认知:“等练习英语10000小时,我就顿悟式地能自由地和母语人士听说无障碍了”。掌握英语的确需要花很多时间没错,但顿悟这种二元式的切换在语言领域是没有的。更多是渐进式的。高阶的人一样也会听不懂,只是有两点:听得懂的多,不懂的情况知道如何应对处理。 <span class="tw-permalink" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #cccccc; display: inline-block; font-size: 14px; line-height: 0; position: relative; top: -0.5em; user-select: text !important; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden; width: 12px;"><span class="fas fa-link" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span></span></div><p class="text-center" style="background-color: white; 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font-size: 16px; margin-bottom: 1.5rem !important; margin-left: -15px; margin-right: -15px; user-select: text !important; white-space: normal;"><div class="col-12 d-flex justify-content-end" style="box-sizing: border-box; display: flex !important; flex: 0 0 100%; justify-content: flex-end !important; max-width: 100%; padding-left: 15px; padding-right: 15px; position: relative; user-select: text !important; width: 730px;"><form action="https://threadreaderapp.com/account/readLater/1593451418371100674" class="gaClickEvent pr-2" data-action="read-later" data-category="threadbuttons" data-label="top" method="post" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-right: 0.5rem !important; user-select: text !important;"><button class="btn btn-outline-dark btn-xsm button-read-later" style="appearance: button; border-color: rgb(52, 58, 64); border-radius: 0.2rem; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #343a40; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 0.25rem 0.5rem; transition: color 0.15s ease-in-out 0s, background-color 0.15s ease-in-out 0s, border-color 0.15s ease-in-out 0s, box-shadow 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; user-select: none; vertical-align: middle;" type="submit"><span class="far fa-bookmark" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span> Bookmark</button></form><form action="https://threadreaderapp.com/account/archive/1593451418371100674" class="gaClickEvent pr-2" data-action="archive" data-category="threadbuttons" data-label="top" method="post" style="box-sizing: border-box; padding-right: 0.5rem !important; user-select: text !important;"><button class="btn btn-outline-dark btn-xsm" style="appearance: button; border-color: rgb(52, 58, 64); border-radius: 0.2rem; 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user-select: text !important;"><button class="btn btn-outline-dark btn-xsm" style="appearance: button; border-color: rgb(52, 58, 64); border-radius: 0.2rem; border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; color: #343a40; cursor: pointer; font-family: inherit; font-size: 0.75rem; font-weight: 400; line-height: 1.5; margin: 0px; overflow: visible; padding: 0.25rem 0.5rem; transition: color 0.15s ease-in-out 0s, background-color 0.15s ease-in-out 0s, border-color 0.15s ease-in-out 0s, box-shadow 0.15s ease-in-out 0s; user-select: none; vertical-align: middle;" type="submit"><span class="fas fa-plus" style="-webkit-font-smoothing: antialiased; box-sizing: border-box; display: var(--fa-display,inline-block); font-family: "Font Awesome 6 Free"; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; font-weight: 900; line-height: 1; text-rendering: auto; user-select: text !important;"></span> My Authors</button></form></div></div></h1>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-17692711448067959952022-10-27T00:50:00.004-07:002022-10-27T00:55:28.965-07:00[话费、电费慢充的真相] 某涉黄APP产业链分析<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2UTvNe3mMT59ycOeAxWIhWqsKYO_BxIm05omRMro3kRVP0mVlWtgaPSNPgpCcVZDZ0nwdqDOHBTqMDN491I0Bf9D_r4Kg9MY19aqNtmOHuCPafGRYYmVHW1JzANKNvK6GdbfDytVHPBRTz40FK1FnTMWeVp9egUpvovniqG2X8nC0kRShPv2-pKkwEQ/s500/v2-dac12b49e57fcbd7ff36ef676e4f604a_1440w.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="500" height="424" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2UTvNe3mMT59ycOeAxWIhWqsKYO_BxIm05omRMro3kRVP0mVlWtgaPSNPgpCcVZDZ0nwdqDOHBTqMDN491I0Bf9D_r4Kg9MY19aqNtmOHuCPafGRYYmVHW1JzANKNvK6GdbfDytVHPBRTz40FK1FnTMWeVp9egUpvovniqG2X8nC0kRShPv2-pKkwEQ/w424-h424/v2-dac12b49e57fcbd7ff36ef676e4f604a_1440w.jpg" width="424" /></a><br /><br /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: x-large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: darkorange; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">前情提要</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">最近逛论坛看到一个帖子,大概就是小兄弟想看看某APP充值VIP是不是真的可以成为“VIP”,小编大概看了一下,发现充值接口大部分都是话费充值和电费充值,只有较大金额才是各种收款码收款。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">之前做</span><a class="relatedlink" href="https://www.52pojie.cn/forum-32-1.html" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid blue; color: #336699; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" target="_blank">病毒分析</a><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">时也遇到过很多涉黄APP,其中大多数都是通过一些集成支付接口来完成支付,这种充值话费和电费的也是头一次看到,可能是自己没搞这行很久了,产业链进行了更新,由于比较新奇,于是乎就了解了一下这个充值话费和电费的套路。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">小编先在APP发起相关支付请求,看看具体给谁支付电费、话费,简单的操作了几笔,发现每一笔都是不同的对象,于是小编从侧面了解了一下这些预充值话费和电费的用户,他们是从什么平台充值的,具体是哪家店?</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">了解下来发现他们充值话费、电费都不是通过官方渠道,而是通过一些小网店、公众号或者是某个上级直接代充,这种充值的特点就是不能实时到账,需要等待,等待时间长短不一。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: x-large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: darkorange; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">产业链流程</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">整个产业链通过一个完全不知情的用户A和一个使用涉黄APP的用户B把原本直接打给黑产受益团伙的钱洗白。整个过程极度隐秘,无法直接跟踪钱款去向。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">流程图</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562836" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103239vt1tz2cylwff002f.png" id="aimg_2562836" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103239vt1tz2cylwff002f.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1080" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103239vt1tz2cylwff002f.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">文字解读</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">&#8226; 用户A通过各种广告了解到打折的话费、电费充值渠道,根本不会想到和黑灰产有什么关系,直接充值,等待到账;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">&#8226; 等待过程钱会经过很多的中转,最后到黑产团伙账户;(经了解其中还包含了很多链条,比如你充值的商家,商家可能还有上家,上家一般是是所谓的台子,然后会打包交给通道商,通道商就是专门</span><a class="relatedlink" href="https://www.52pojie.cn/" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px solid blue; color: #336699; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" target="_blank">破解</a><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">话费充值渠道,将破解后做成的充值链接提供给哪些黑灰产项目,就是我们下面用户B点击的充值链接)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">&#8226; 用户B通过广告链接下载不明APP,APP内通过免费内容引导用户充值会员以及购买各种道具,APP内一般还会包含棋牌类页面,购买的道具就可以直接玩棋牌游戏;</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">&#8226; 用户B被引导后充值,通过充值话费、电费、转账等接口将所谓的会员、道具费用充值给正常的A用户。(B用户充值会员、道具成功后,待充值话费、电费库里面的某个A用户充值成功)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: x-large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: orange; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">洗钱种类</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">电费充值:</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">这种充值方式一般是金额稍微大点的,200往上,400、500居多,充值对象会有一些使用电费较多的个人和一些小厂房,这种充值只需要充值电费的户号和用户名即可。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562838" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103415aw828612cqq2fcrh.png" id="aimg_2562838" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103415aw828612cqq2fcrh.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1050" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103415aw828612cqq2fcrh.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">对其中一个账号模拟充值查看具体信息,这个账户是一个公司,账户已有余额就高达几万。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562839" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103418sd0ue9918hr8e1t3.png" id="aimg_2562839" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103418sd0ue9918hr8e1t3.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1046" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103418sd0ue9918hr8e1t3.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562840" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103510ztzhbqhnkk4a1rk7.png" id="aimg_2562840" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103510ztzhbqhnkk4a1rk7.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="846" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103510ztzhbqhnkk4a1rk7.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">话费充值:</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">话费充值是最主要的充值方式,金额下限和上限较为灵活,可以是30、50的零钱,也可以是400、500的大额充值,有话费充值需求的人也比较多,相对其他的充值接口,该充值更容易成功,洗钱金额应该更大。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562841" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103525l00s61q0n8t11ool.png" id="aimg_2562841" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103525l00s61q0n8t11ool.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1048" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103525l00s61q0n8t11ool.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562842" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103528ttffhc2d26kz2hcu.png" id="aimg_2562842" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103528ttffhc2d26kz2hcu.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1048" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103528ttffhc2d26kz2hcu.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">支付宝扫码转账</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">支付宝的转账涉及了个人收款码和商家商品码,其中个人收款码,受害者只需要扫描对应的收款码,填写收款人的姓名即可转账成功,多为跑分收款二维码。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: medium; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: yellow; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">个人收款码:</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562843" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103627fn68shsh8snmsgs8.png" id="aimg_2562843" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103627fn68shsh8snmsgs8.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1046" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103627fn68shsh8snmsgs8.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562844" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103636ckpma86mxpmm9tmm.png" id="aimg_2562844" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103636ckpma86mxpmm9tmm.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1034" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103636ckpma86mxpmm9tmm.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: medium; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: yellow; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">商家商品码:</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">商家商品码就是一些小店铺的收款码,针对某个商品生成的收款码,这种情况下就和走正常购物一样,钱被流入商品交易市场,基本找不到去向。这些商家收款人码也多为跑分二维码。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562845" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103717g1ylk1wlxsc7f7iw.png" id="aimg_2562845" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103717g1ylk1wlxsc7f7iw.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1042" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103717g1ylk1wlxsc7f7iw.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562846" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103720oqtnuzinz1tpbwnt.png" id="aimg_2562846" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103720oqtnuzinz1tpbwnt.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1048" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103720oqtnuzinz1tpbwnt.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">微信红包转账</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">扫码加好友,发送对应的订单验证码后会提示转红包给对应的商家或个人,这种大量是未实名的企业用户。这个过程需要加对方的微信,小编也尝试加了几个,加上之后对方也是言简意赅,直接问码,也就是下方付款订单的验证码,他们“验码”之后让你发对应金额的红包,这种很难确定是黑产团伙还是某个利益团伙。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562847" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103744r8iohiibvrvddaoh.png" id="aimg_2562847" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103744r8iohiibvrvddaoh.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1042" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103744r8iohiibvrvddaoh.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562848" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103747f1bjjkwcccpuduap.png" id="aimg_2562848" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103747f1bjjkwcccpuduap.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1046" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103747f1bjjkwcccpuduap.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562849" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103749dbsg04ck890zgstb.png" id="aimg_2562849" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103749dbsg04ck890zgstb.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1052" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103749dbsg04ck890zgstb.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562850" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103752y85magqa5pynrnyx.png" id="aimg_2562850" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103752y85magqa5pynrnyx.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1030" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103752y85magqa5pynrnyx.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">有的添加后,会发你支付宝的收款码,让你转账,而且不止一个支付宝收款码,这些支付宝的收款码又包含了商家码和个人码。总之就是增加金钱中转次数,让洗钱过程更加隐蔽。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562851" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103824vzoxdc2x2zpde88e.png" id="aimg_2562851" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103824vzoxdc2x2zpde88e.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1036" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103824vzoxdc2x2zpde88e.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562852" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103826f7d3jlmmsplp7sjt.png" id="aimg_2562852" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103826f7d3jlmmsplp7sjt.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="950" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103826f7d3jlmmsplp7sjt.png" /> </ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562853" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103829kgqoly4tgbconihg.png" id="aimg_2562853" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103829kgqoly4tgbconihg.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="612" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103829kgqoly4tgbconihg.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: x-large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: darkorange; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">真优惠还是洗钱?</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">小编在此次分析中也找了很多资料,某乎上也有博主揭露过这种洗钱方式,根据博主写的,有些棋牌网站专门会提供所谓的“话费”上分,所谓上分就是将钱换成对应的游戏筹码。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">这里提到上分,我之前还有文章提到过“跑分”也是类似,就是专门拿一些店铺或者个人的收款码来洗钱,可以看看我之前的文章:https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ZlnUszZADQlr4avbxHNVOg</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">这个充值过程就会从库中匹配金额、种类一致的待充值用户,然后将用来购买筹码的钱充值给正常用户。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562854" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103854gkc0jucxac0m449j.png" id="aimg_2562854" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103854gkc0jucxac0m449j.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="876" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103854gkc0jucxac0m449j.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">在了解这个产业链的过程中看了很多视频文章,同时也浏览了一些评论,但是评论中大多数人都觉得这是好事,便宜打折充值,何乐不为。(这里提醒一下如果你充值接口对接的上级正好是黑灰产团伙,那么你的充值可能会一直处于等待中,这个过程可能黑灰产跑路,那么你的充值将石沉大海)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">但是我们有没有考虑过我们在无形中助长了黑灰产的发展,可能被骗的某个人就是我们的朋友。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: x-large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: darkorange; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">服务器简单溯源</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">小视频(主站)api.jt*******wa.com</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">https://api.jt*****wa.com/m_sns/video/apply_play_permission</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">https://api.jt*****wa.com/m_game/game_list?game_ids=%5B%5D</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">https://api.jt*****wa.com/m_sns/posts?post_type=recommend</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562855" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103908yqg9ljnxnmtqvts1.png" id="aimg_2562855" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103908yqg9ljnxnmtqvts1.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1080" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103908yqg9ljnxnmtqvts1.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562856" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103910a36udyapyyr780a0.png" id="aimg_2562856" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103910a36udyapyyr780a0.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1080" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103910a36udyapyyr780a0.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562857" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103913taodyqz99vocm9qr.png" id="aimg_2562857" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103913taodyqz99vocm9qr.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1080" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103913taodyqz99vocm9qr.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><ignore_js_op style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><img _load="1" aid="2562858" class="zoom" file="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103915w4dnr04n6e674cnr.png" id="aimg_2562858" inpost="1" lazyloaded="true" src="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103915w4dnr04n6e674cnr.png" style="cursor: pointer; height: auto; max-height: 1000px; max-width: 100%; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text; width: auto;" width="1080" zoomfile="https://attach.52pojie.cn/forum/202210/25/103915w4dnr04n6e674cnr.png" /></ignore_js_op><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: seagreen; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">直播平台(第三方)api.s*******c.com</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">https://api.s****c.com/tl/index/cache/version?appId=10005</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: x-large; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;"><span style="background-color: darkorange; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;">结语</span></span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">黑灰产一直是网络安全的毒瘤,很难彻底拔除,技术在不断的发展,从一开始的收到一笔钱要通过人力从不同的提款机取出不等份额的钱来洗白,到各种跑分收款码,再到各种上分充值,洗钱的方式越来越隐秘,基本无法定位黑钱的来龙去脉。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;">借用“差评君”的一段话“我们没有能力劝黑产们改邪归正,也没有办法用道德标准要求张三们别再选择慢充了,因为他们也是记得利益者”,但是我们可以通过更深入内幕描述来奉劝各位涉黄涉赌人员早点上岸。</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; overflow-wrap: break-word; user-select: text;" /><div><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div><div><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div><div><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #444444; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Tahoma, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft Yahei, Simsun, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;">https://www.52pojie.cn/thread-1703500-1-1.html</span></span></div><div><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 14px;"><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Segoe UI, Tahoma, PingFang SC, Hiragino Sans GB, Microsoft Yahei, Simsun, sans-serif" style="color: #444444;"><br /></span></span></div><div>Andy0214</div><div> <span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-size: 12px; text-align: center;">本帖最后由 Andy0214 于 2022-10-25 11:14 编辑</span></div><div><span face="-apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Tahoma, "PingFang SC", "Hiragino Sans GB", "Microsoft Yahei", Simsun, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #999999; font-size: 12px; text-align: center;"><br /></span></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br />GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-31505620052460818542022-10-23T05:47:00.002-07:002022-10-23T05:48:03.862-07:00伯南克自述:我为何要研究1929年大萧条<p> </p><p><span style="caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: inherit; font-family: Arial; font-size: 14px;"></span></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51Eub2ORHZL._SY498_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="500" height="500" src="https://m.media-amazon.com/images/I/51Eub2ORHZL._SY498_BO1,204,203,200_.jpg" width="500" /></a></div><br />伯南克自述:我为何要研究1929年大萧条<p></p><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">中信出版社 </span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">由于“对银行和金融危机”的研究贡献,前美联储主席伯南克获得2022年诺贝尔经济学奖。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">北京时间10月10日晚,2022年诺贝尔经济学奖得主揭晓。美联储前主席伯南克、Douglas W. Diamond和Philip H. Dybvig获得这一奖项,以“表彰他们对银行和金融危机的研究”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">本文系旧闻重发,主要摘自中信出版社出版的伯南克回忆录《行动的勇气》。伯南克在书中系统的回顾了其学术生涯,阐述了自己为何选择1929年大萧条作为学术研究的主攻方向,以及其如何提出“金融加速器”(financial accelerator)理论(主要学术成就)。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">作为2008年全球金融危机政策救助的决定者,伯南克也在书中精彩地描述了自己如何学以致用,将自身所学理论与实践相结合,利用自己美联储主席的身份影响决策圈,进而力挽狂澜使得世界免于再次遭遇像大萧条那样的灾难。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">《行动的勇气》- 伯南克 </span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">第二章:学术界</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">与狄龙镇相比,哈佛大学让我感觉更自在。在哈佛,最重要的是创意。电话簿大小的课程指导手册上列出了多种多样的课程,从梵语到生物化学,再到中世纪艺术,无所不包,我觉得简直难以置信。在第一学期,我选择了数学、物理学、创意写作、日本历史与文化,以及一本关于犹太史的研究生课程。我之所以选择日本历史与文化,是因为我对亚洲充满了好奇心,但知之甚少。之所以选择犹太史课程,是希望它为我提供一个看待犹太民族遗产的视角。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我在韦尔德宿舍楼的室友包括一位足球运动员、一位越战老兵和一位数学奇才。我们都有一点紧张,不知道自己将来的学习成绩会怎么样,也不知道自己能否适应未来的生活。我和几位新朋友喜欢在校园里面逛逛,希望能在新生里面看到漂亮的女孩子。我逐渐了解了坎布里奇这个地方。书店里面的书多得我无法想象,每次过去,都要在里面看上几个小时。我有时去咖啡馆,那里有一些民俗歌手的表演,有时去电影院看亨弗莱·鲍嘉和劳伦·白考尔主演的电影,有时也会打桥牌,一直打到很晚才作罢。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">课程刚开始时,我很兴奋,但起初我并没有意识到自己的基础有多差,尤其是与那些毕业于精英式私立高中(比如菲利普斯安多佛中学或菲利普斯埃克塞特中学)或顶级公立学校(如布朗士科学高中)的学生相比,更是相形见绌。我的背景知识,尤其是数学与物理方面的背景知识,与同学们相去甚远,而且我不知道该怎么去学。我第一次物理期中考试的成绩出来时,无异于给我当头棒喝。我课堂上认真听讲,但下课后却没有下很大功夫。我心想,不会有问题的。考试上午9点钟开始,我早上起得早,大约7点半就起来了,这样在开始考试之前还能抱着书再突击式复习45分钟,这比我在高中时期的备考时间长多了。当然,我没及格。其他几门成绩好一些,但也算不上出类拔萃。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">哈佛大学的奇特校历救了我。秋季课程在圣诞节前结束,但是期末考试直到1月中旬才开始。假期和考试之间的几周,被称为“复习迎考期”。在此期间,学生将完成学期论文,并为期末考试做准备。当假期开始之际,我收拾好课本,坐上一辆公共汽车,准备回狄龙镇。我的心情可谓是既担心,又沮丧。回到家之后,睡觉、吃饭和复习就是我的全部生活,再回到哈佛,也继续努力复习备考。最后,我在物理期末考试中拿到了B,与之前期中考试的成绩相比,提高了很多,我深受鼓舞。日本历史与文化的期末考试成绩也是B,其他课程都是A。我下定决心再接再厉。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">当初竭力说服我上哈佛大学的肯·曼宁经常来看我,请我出去吃饭,询问我的近期状况。我读大一的时候,他已经拿到了学士和硕士学位,并开始在哈佛大学攻读博士学位了。他跟位于郊区地带的布鲁克莱恩镇上一个犹太家庭关系很近,曾经邀请我过去参加救赎日的活动,但我对那些活动的兴趣没有他强烈。我的民族遗产是值得骄傲的,但我不想做一个传统的教徒。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在我上大一那年,哈佛大学仍然是抗议越战的中心。1969年,也就是我到达哈佛的两年前, 一个名为“民主社会学生会”的政治组织占领了“大学楼”(University Hall)。这是哈佛校园中历史最悠久的建筑之一。最后,拿着警棍和催泪瓦斯的警察结束了那次抗议。1971年,我到哈佛时,抗议还在继续。有一次,抗议者在哈佛园内连续数天24小时不间断地击鼓。当时,作为一个来自小镇的17岁青年,我的政治意识并不强烈,甚至有点幼稚。我用一种超脱的视角看待反战抗议,认为这是我的教育的一部分。然而,到1972年2月,也就是我大一那个学年将要结束之际,我终于松了一口气,因为我抽签的结果(第335号)表明我不大可能被征召入伍。事实上,抽签结果已经无关紧要了,因为1973年越南战争就结束了,抽签征兵模式也随之结束。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">大一结束后的那个暑假里,我回到了狄龙镇的家里,到“边境之南”找了份服务员的兼职。“边境之南”最初只是一个啤酒摊的名字,这个啤酒摊是狄龙县一个名叫艾伦·谢弗的犹太人于1949年创建的。当时,与狄龙县毗邻的北卡罗来纳州颁布了禁酒令。他就是利用了这个事实才萌生了卖酒的想法。在数十年间,“边境之南”逐渐发展成了一个综合性的商业服务区,面积达数平方英里,包括汽车旅馆、露营地、墨西哥阔边帽形状的饭店、游乐园、爬行动物室内展览区以及销售烟花、沙滩用品和纪念品的商店。它的广告牌,往北延伸到费城,往南延伸到佛罗里达州代托纳海滩,以吸引那些冬季迁徙到南方的候鸟族。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">虽然“边境之南”这个景点在以农业为主的南卡罗来纳州似乎与周围环境有些格格不入,但它为当地居民提供了数以百计的工作机会。很少有当地人会在那里吃饭,因为价格太贵了。在那里做服务员虽然比在工地上干活儿轻松多了,但也是个苦差事。由于有小费,我比之前在工地上挣的多了许多。这份兼职有利于改变我的害羞性格,因为如果你想多得小费,就不得不与人们多聊上几句。我发现较之于北方人(我们称之为“扬基人”),南方人显得更为友好,但北方人给小费比较多。我在那里总共工作了两个暑假,来回都是开我外祖父那辆1964款的“普利茅斯猛士”。工作时,我身上会披上一件具有墨西哥风情的披肩。我的同事们有学生,有利用暑假挣点外快的当地老师,也有一些“老兵”,这些人一般都是中年女性,成年累月地在那里做服务员。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在20世纪70年代早期,狄龙镇的种族关系仍然处于紧张状态,但“边境之南”的餐馆一般不存在种族隔离现象,在很早之前,各个种族就能享受那里的服务。有一次,在将近10个小时的轮班快要结束时,在门外迎宾的女老板迎进了一对黑人夫妇,让他们坐在一个餐饮区里,但显然她没有意识到那个餐饮区的女服务员已经下班回家了。我本来应该为他们提供服务,但由于时间太晚了,我也想回家,便忽视了他们。他们在那里等了将近20分钟,最后那个黑人男性把菜单甩在了桌子上,他们便起身离去了。他们之前肯定也在其他地方受到过种族歧视,被拒绝提供服务,所以,他们那次肯定也会这么认为。其实,那一次没有得到服务与他们的种族并没有关系,但他们并不知道这一点。时至今日,我每次想起那件事就充满了很大的愧疚感,我希望能当面向他们道歉。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">暑假结束后,我回到了学校,开始读大二,并搬到温思罗普宿舍楼,一直住到了大四结束。虽然我暑假挣了点钱,但手头仍然紧张。我和一位室友为了多挣点钱,就在宿舍楼下的地下室开了个小店,做汉堡和奶昔。店里面有一台黑白电视机,通常会播放棕熊队或凯尔特人队的比赛。当时的波士顿和现在一样,体育运动也很风靡。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">鲍比·奥尔效力于棕熊队,戴维·考恩斯和约翰·哈夫利切克效力于凯尔特人队,卡尔·雅泽姆斯基效力于红袜队。我们尽可能经常地去看比赛。在长达30多年的时间里,我一直是红袜队的铁杆粉丝。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我刚进入大学时,曾经想过主修数学,但很快便明白我既没有天赋,也没有做好充分的准备,很难与哈佛大学数学方面最优秀的学生相匹敌。事实上,我的问题是我对一切都感兴趣。我记得,我曾经先后考虑过把数学、物理学和历史学作为自己的主修专业,而且我也很喜欢我在大一那年选择的创新写作课程以及大二那年选择的莎士比亚研究课程,所以,曾经考虑过做一名英语专业的学生,但这种想法持续时间很短。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在大二那个学年的秋季,我最终决定主修经济学专业,选择了代码为“Ec 10”的“经济学导论”课程。授课教授为著名的保守派经济学家马丁·费尔德斯坦。费尔德斯坦授课的地点往往都是能够容纳数百名学生的大礼堂。事实上,很多教学工作是“小组制”的,每个小班都是由高年级的本科生、研究生或青年教师担任“组长”。我的“组长”是李·琼斯。他现在是波士顿大学的教授,对发展中国家的经济很感兴趣。他帮助我认识到了经济学是一个很挑战智力的学科,可能改善数百万人的生活。我比较喜欢的一点是,在学习经济学的过程中,我可以同时追求对数学和历史的兴趣。在大二学年的春季,我最终将经济学申报为了主修专业。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在哈佛大学的前两年内,我只修了“经济学导论”这一门与经济学相关的课程。于是,我决定奋起直追。在大三那年的秋季,我注册了四门经济学类课程。其中一门是“计量经济学与统计分析”,是由资深教授戴尔·乔根森执教的。他后来成为我的毕业论文指导老师。他很有智慧,性情沉稳,讲话语速快,但很清楚。他对我很好,大三和大四那两个暑假里,他雇我做他的研究助理。他还慷慨地为我提供了职业发展建议。在他的指导下,我学会了如何用计算机程序与穿孔卡片建立经济数学模型。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">当时,乔根森的工作重点是研究能源经济学。这是20世纪70年代一个特别重要的课题,因为当时石油价格的大幅上涨造成了美国经济的通货膨胀与衰退。我在他指导下所做的研究工作,为我的本科毕业论文奠定了基础。我那份论文探索的内容是政府的能源政策对整体经济运行情况的影响。我以本科阶段的研究成果为基础,与乔根森合作完成了我平生第一份公开发表的文章。我们分析了实施天然气价格上限政策的影响,得出的结论认为,这些政策抑制了新的供应,阻碍了天然气开发,以至于产生适得其反的结果。乔根森被邀请向国会做证,他带着我一起去。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我的毕业论文被评为哈佛大学1975年最优秀的经济学学士论文。虽然我大一那年过得马马虎虎,但毕业之际,却取得了经济学专业最优等的成绩,成为美国大学优等生联谊会的一员。我还获得了美国国家科学基金会奖学金,这意味着无论我去哪儿读研究生,国家科学基金会都将支付我研究生前三年的学费和费用。我的目光盯上了麻省理工学院,那里的经济学博士课程被普遍视为世界上最好的。但我担心如果我放弃哈佛大学,而选择麻省理工学院,乔根森可能会不高兴,但他说:“你需要去最好的地方。”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">麻省理工学院与哈佛大学的距离虽然只有一英里左右,也就是一个地铁站的距离,但这两所学校存在很多不同之处。我认为,哈佛大学陶醉在其悠久的历史和传统之中,而麻省理工学院却没有这种情绪。那里的文化和课程以理科和工科为主,学生们几乎没有时间去修“软学科”。(后来,我作为一个研究生助教,辅导麻省理工学院的几位本科生学习一门数学理论应用非常多的经济学课程。我问他们为什么选修这样一门课,他们告诉我说这门课符合麻省理工学院对于本科生人文素质的要求。)有一个笑话很好地说明了这两所学校的差异:大概在这两所学校中间的位置有一个颇受欢迎的百货商店。店前的广告牌上写着“5罐汤1美元”。一个学生走了进来,问道:“10罐多少钱?”店员回答:“你是来自哈佛不会算账,还是来自麻省理工而读不懂?”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">麻省理工学院的经济学课程的授课地点在斯隆商学院,位于校园最东边,在肯德尔广场和查尔斯河之间。今天的肯德尔广场遍布科技公司、高档公寓和各种饭店,但我在麻省理工学院读书的时候,那里还是一片低矮的仓库和其他没有任何特色可言的建筑物,唯一能引起食欲的地方就是饭店,但那里的晚饭总是给人一种油腻感。即便如此,来自世界各地的学生仍然蜂拥而至,到麻省理工学院攻读经济学类研究生课程。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在一个以工科为主的大学里面却存在一个顶尖的经济学科,的确有点令人意外。在麻省理工学院经济类学科的发展史上,1940年是一个至关重要的年份。当时,年轻的保罗·萨缪尔森同意离开哈佛大学,来到了麻省理工学院。他后来荣膺了诺贝尔经济学奖,撰写了史上影响力最大的经济学教材。他在研究生阶段,为了将复杂高端的数学方法应用于经济学领域,做了大量基础性的研究工作。哈佛大学那些“保守派”经济学家们不愿意接受萨缪尔森的数学方法(反犹太主义思潮的残余也可能是其中一个原因)。在他之后,到了1949年,另外一位未来的诺贝尔奖得主也来到了麻省理工。他就是经济增长理论的集大成者——罗伯特·索洛。那个时期,数学和统计方法在经济学领域得到了越来越广的应用,麻省理工学院就为这种量化分析方法的蓬勃发展提供了一方完美的沃土。当我1975年到达那里的时候,数学分析法已经根深蒂固了,但在经济学领域却因凯恩斯学派与新古典学派之间的论战而陷入了新一轮动荡。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">萨缪尔森和索洛信奉凯恩斯学派。这一派的理论基础是英国著名经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的经济思想。凯恩斯在探索如何“治愈”大萧条的过程中,对经济繁荣和萧条提出了一个一般意义上的解释。他的作品在措辞上往往具有一定的模糊性,以至于经济思想史学家们到今天仍然在辩论“凯恩斯真正的意思是什么”。但是,至少根据那些最有影响力的追随者的解读,凯恩斯学派的一个重要基础是工资和一些价格具有“黏性”,也就是说,它们不能足够迅速地调整,以确保充分就业和资本存量(工厂与设备等)的充分利用。在凯恩斯主义理论中,需求如果发生出人意料的减少,比如企业对新设备的投资减少或者政府支出减少,都会导致失业加剧,因为随着销售额的减少,企业会缩小生产规模,并解雇工人。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">凯恩斯主义者认为,失业率长期居高不下,就像大萧条时期那样,是一种资源的浪费,如果政府及时采取措施,则能够改善这种局面。尤其值得指出的是,凯恩斯主义者认为,财政刺激(减税或增加财政支出)和货币刺激(降低利率)有利于促进市场恢复对商品和服务的正常需求,因此,要确保劳动力充分就业和确保资本存量得到充分利用,就应该采取财政和货币政策,积极应对经济衰退和失业。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在萨缪尔森、索洛和其他著名经济学家的积极倡导下,凯恩斯学派在20世纪50—60年代赢得了众多追随者。肯尼迪总统在提出一项重大减税方案时,就是从凯恩斯主义的角度给出了解释,后来,他提出的减税方案在林登·约翰逊总统执政期间(1964年)通过。人们普遍认为,这项减税方案推动了美国在20世纪60年代的经济繁荣。1971年,尼克松总统公开表示:“我现在是一位凯恩斯经济学的支持者。”然而,当我开始读研究生的时候,凯恩斯主义的名声已经开始有些陨落了,至少在学术界一些人之间是这样。在某种程度上,凯恩斯主义在学术界的人气下降反映了20世纪70年代的经济表现不佳,尤其是通货膨胀率的急剧上升,这可以归咎于过多的美国政府支出(目的是为了打越南战争和落实约翰逊总统提出的“伟大社会”计划)以及过于宽松的货币政策(利率太低,且维持时间过长)。许多经济学家也质疑凯恩斯主义的理论基础。比如,为什么凯恩斯模型认为工资和物价是黏性的,而不是根据供求压力自发调整的?当时的凯恩斯模型没有给出什么好的解释。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">为了应对人们对凯恩斯主义的不满情绪,一群经济学家便开创了新古典宏观经济学。其中的代表人物包括芝加哥大学的罗伯特·卢卡斯、明尼苏达大学的托马斯·萨金特和爱德华·普雷斯科特。他们后来都获得了诺贝尔奖,促进了新古典宏观经济学的发展。从本质上讲,卢卡斯和他的同事们以现代化的、数学的形式再现了亚当·斯密提出的“无形的手”的古典视角。斯密认为,市场具有自发调节性,虽然每一位买家和卖家的行为纯粹是出于自私自利的动机,但市场就像一只无形的手,调节着他们的行为,从而达到有利于整个社会的结果。他们摒弃了凯恩斯学派的黏性工资和黏性物价理论,而是假定市场总是自发地趋于供需均衡状态,只不过有可能在短期内偏离这种状态。如果真是这样的话,那么经济衰退并不像凯恩斯主义者所认为的那样反映出资源的严重浪费,相反,经济衰退时期表明人们自愿减少工作时间,或者表明经济生产力降低。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">与凯恩斯主义相反,新古典经济学派认为政府没必要干预经济,而且对政府干预的有效性提出了质疑,特别是,如果工资和价格迅速调整,消除了市场失衡现象,那么货币政策最多只是对产出与就业产生短期影响。相应地,信奉新古典学派的人相信货币政策除了使通胀率降低并保持稳定之外,并不会系统性地改善经济运行状况。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">新古典主义经济学派具有重要影响,部分原因是它在研究方法上的诸多创新。我在研究生院期间,一些最有趣的研究就是以这些方法为基础的。然而,许多经济学家虽然认为传统的凯恩斯主义存在一些缺陷,却不乐意接受新古典经济学派的结论,尤其是不乐意接受“货币政策只能对就业或产出产生短暂的影响”的结论。这种结论在20世纪80年代似乎更不可信。当时,美联储主席保罗·沃尔克把利率上调到了非常高的水平,以期给经济降温,从而降低通胀率。沃尔克的政策虽然征服了通货膨胀,却产生了深刻而持续的衰退,这与新古典经济学的理论直接相悖,因为按照新古典经济学派的说法,这种现象是不应该发生的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">一些研究人员致力于结合新古典学派的见解以及较为先进的分析法,对古典的凯恩斯主义进行“现代化改造”。麻省理工学院就有这样一批人,其中包括一位名叫斯坦利·费希尔的年轻教授。他出生于北罗德西亚,也就是现在的赞比亚。费希尔等人融合了新古典学派和凯恩斯主义的思想之后,催生了所谓的“新凯恩斯主义”,深刻地影响了今天大多数主流经济学家的思想。至关重要的是,新凯恩斯主义者使用新的模型和分析法,重新论证了工资和物价具有黏性,并且可能导致市场供求关系陷入长期的失衡状态,因此,他们又回到了凯恩斯主义学派原来提出的“经济衰退是一种浪费”的观点,并且认为财政与货币政策有助于保持经济接近于充分就业的状态。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">作为经济学领域的一位研究生和初步了解这些论战的新人,我对凯恩斯主义的态度是既不热情地支持,也不坚决地反对。我想看看我自己的学术研究之路会把我带向哪里。随着时间的推移,我逐渐相信融合了新古典学派以及其他经济学派之思想的新凯恩斯主义学派为现实决策提供了最好的框架。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在麻省理工学院期间,第一学年快要结束之际,斯坦利·费希尔的建议对我未来的学习产生的影响最大。在第一年里,我跟着他学习宏观经济学和货币政策,课程结束后,我找到他,和他探讨一下集中研究这些领域的可能性。他为我提出一些建议,告诉我要读哪些书,其中包括米尔顿·弗里德曼与安娜·施瓦茨在1963年合著的《美国货币史(1867—1960)》。他告诉我,这本大部头的书要么让我激动不已,要么让我昏昏欲睡,根据自己读这本书的反应,就能准确地知道自己喜欢研究什么。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我发现这本书引人入胜。我在研究生院的第一年主要学的是数学分析法,因此,弗里德曼和施瓦茨重点描述的历史分析法给我别开生面的感觉。他们回顾了美国近一个世纪的经济史,以便理解货币政策对经济的影响,特别值得一提的是,根据他们提供的历史记录,美联储在三个历史时期采取的紧缩型货币政策(一次在1929年股灾前,其他两次在大萧条早期)加剧了大萧条的严重性。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">然而,在研究生院期间,20世纪70年代石油价格的反复波动不断地激发着我的研究兴趣。我的博士论文重点研究的对象就是不确定性及其对投资和就业的影响。我的博士论文指导老师是斯坦利·费希尔,论文委员会的一个成员是罗伯特·索洛。我提出了一个理论模型,分析了能源进口型经济体(类似于美国)在与能源卡特尔(类似于石油输出国家组织)打交道期间可能遭遇的问题。我的结论表明,非同寻常的不确定性(比如关于石油价格未来走向的不确定性或关于决策者如何应对这些价格波动的不确定性)或将对石油公司产生强大的阻碍作用,阻碍它们进行新的投资或增加工人数量。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">那些年里,我的生活还发生了另外一个重大的改变。1977年10月,也就是我在麻省理工学院的第三年刚刚开始之际,我遇到了安娜·弗里德曼。她当时是一个大四的学生,在韦尔斯利学院主修化学,辅修西班牙语。韦尔斯利学院在麻省理工学院西面,距离14英里。我在哈佛大学的一位室友迈克·史密斯为我和安娜安排了初次约会。后来,迈克成了我的伴郎。迈克当时正和安娜的一位朋友妮科尔·阿罗尼约会,妮科尔让他撮合我与安娜。约会那天,妮科尔与安娜在韦尔斯利学院为我和迈克煮了意大利面作为晚餐,然后我们一起打乒乓球。安娜后来回忆道:“妮科尔觉得我很书生气,本也很书生气,所以她就觉得我们应该见个面。”事实上,安娜具有热情、外向的性格,我则腼腆内向,这有助于我们相处。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">安娜和我拥有相似的家庭背景,都是东欧犹太人的后代,但成长环境差别非常大。她的父母奥托·弗里德曼和莲卡·弗里德曼是二战的幸存者。1943年,结婚不久的他们生活在南斯拉夫一个名叫斯普利特的地方,即现在克罗地亚的亚得里亚海的海岸地带。德国占领南斯拉夫后,建立了一个亲纳粹的傀儡政权,奥托的父母、弟弟、莲卡以及莲卡的母亲便一直计划着逃离出去。一天半夜时分,有人撞他们家的前门。那是德国人和他们的克罗地亚同伙在围捕犹太人。他们便从后门仓皇逃走,除了身上的衣服之外,一无所有。在塞尔维亚游击队员的协助下,他们一路往北奔逃,翻越阿尔卑斯山,进入意大利。奥托的父母、弟弟和莲卡的母亲没有成功出逃,他们死于克罗地亚的法西斯政权设立的亚塞诺瓦茨集中营。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">奥托和莲卡首先定居在了意大利南部的一个名叫巴里的海滨城市。1944年,安娜的哥哥维克多出生在那里。战争结束后,他们全家搬到了罗马郊外一个名叫格罗塔费拉塔的小镇。1956年,安娜出生在那里。后来意大利当局开始打击非法移民,他们便移民到了美国,当时,安娜还是个婴儿。他们一家在丹佛定居,因为他们有亲戚住在那里。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">安娜的父母都没有读完高中。尽管如此,他们却非常重视教育。后来,维克多本科毕业于哈佛大学,在麻省理工学院攻读了硕士学位,成为一名石油工程师。安娜以全额奖学金被录取到了韦尔斯利学院。她的哥哥一再向她父母保证虽然这所学校只招收女生,但它是一所顶尖的学校,之后,她父母才同意她上这所学校。她遵循父母的建议,主修化学专业,但她真正喜欢的是拉美文学。她把加夫列尔·加西亚·马尔克斯和豪尔赫·路易斯·博尔赫斯的作品介绍给了我。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">和安娜约会两个月后,我向她求婚。1978年5月29日,也就是安娜毕业三天之后,我们在波士顿的一个犹太教堂结婚了。我们把度蜜月的地点选在了意大利。我们去了一趟她家当年住过的格罗塔费拉塔小镇,见了见她父母和哥哥在那里居住期间认识的一些人。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我们两人的第一个家是一个小公寓,里面经常有蟑螂出没。公寓所在的大楼共有6层,外墙是棕褐色的砖墙,与哈佛广场有三个街区的距离。国家科学基金会给我的资助已经用完了,我们的收入只有两部分,一部分是我担任助教的津贴,另一部分是安娜在哈佛广场一位验光师的店里做接待员的收入。我们只能依靠这些微薄的收入艰难度日。我们每周只拿出5美元用于娱乐,就是到公寓附近的一个地方去玩弹球游戏。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我在撰写博士毕业论文期间,就四处申请教职,哈佛大学、斯坦福大学、普林斯顿大学等几所学校向我发出了邀请,为我提供助理教授职位。与此同时,安娜也被几所学校的西班牙文学硕士项目录取。最后,经过商议,我们决定留在斯坦福大学。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我的工作和安娜的硕士项目开始之前的那个夏天,我们在斯坦福大学的校园周围与别人合租了一套房子,合租者是我在研究生院的朋友,名叫杰里米·布洛。为了分担房租,我们后来又邀请了马克·格特勒与我们一起合租。当时,马克已经在一年之前获得了斯坦福大学的博士学位,正计划利用那个夏天做研究。我和马克即将开始我们的新事业,都激动不已。我们发现彼此之间有很多共同兴趣,每次聊天都会聊上几个小时。从那时起,我们就开始建立了漫长而富有成果的合作与友谊。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我在斯坦福大学的第一个挑战是教学。我的教职是在商学院,而不是经济学系。我当时只有25岁,很多工作几年后重返校园的学生都比我年龄大。他们觉得我太年轻,觉得我缺乏经验。他们这样想也不无道理。通常来讲,他们的一切费用都是自己承担的,既然付出了学费,必然想获得良好的回报。我之前接受的教育主要在经济学理论方面,但我很快学会了如何让我的授课符合学生的需求,让学生从我的课程中获得他们想要的知识。比如,我让学生分析一下新兴市场国家的经济政策,并思考一下这些政策对于创业或投资的影响。这个做法帮助我以一种更实用的方法去理解经济学,而且我发现我善于解释事情。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">与此同时,我还面临着“不出版,就出局”的问题。所有年轻的教师们都会面对这个压力。我之前之所以非常兴奋地加入斯坦福大学,部分原因是那里更适合我思考信息不完全或不对称对于市场结果的影响。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">信息不对称意味着交易中的一方比另一方掌握更多的信息。比如,二手车卖家比潜在买家更了解自己的车,就属于信息不对称的一种体现。信息不对称或不完全的市场运作方式非常不同于买卖双方掌握类似信息的市场,比如石油、粮食等大宗商品的标准化市场。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我特别感兴趣的是信息不对称对银行业和信贷市场运作过程的影响。银行有助于弥合储户(大部分银行信贷的来源)与潜在贷款者之间的信息差距,因为普通的储户不可能判断那些试图从银行贷款的人是否值得信赖,是否具备相应的资质,但银行的贷款专员如果多用点心,就能了解潜在贷款者的信息。斯坦福大学的校园里处处弥漫着信息不对称研究的气息,因为这个领域内一些起到先驱作用的学者都集中在这里,包括肯尼思·阿罗、戴维·克雷普斯和鲍勃·威尔逊。在他们的影响下,我对大萧条的兴趣越来越大。我和马克·格特勒多次料到银行和金融市场对经济扩张和收缩产生的影响。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我在麻省理工学院深入阅读了弗里德曼和施瓦茨的著作之后,就成了一个名副其实的“大萧条迷”,就像其他人成为“美国内战迷”一样。我不仅阅读与大萧条时期经济状况有关的著作,还广泛涉猎与大萧条时期相关的政治学、社会学和历史学著作。但宏观经济学的一个基本问题(我称之为宏观经济学领域的一个“圣杯”)就是大萧条为什么会发生,为什么那么持久和深刻。(这与儿童时期的我在夏洛特市对我祖母提出的问题基本上是相同的。)</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在弗里德曼和施瓦茨之前,人们普遍受到了约翰·肯尼思·加尔布雷思于1954年出版的《1929年大崩盘》一书的影响,以至于主流观点认为大萧条是由20世纪20年代的过度投机行为以及随后的股市崩盘引发的。然而,弗里德曼和施瓦茨却表明,在大萧条的形成过程中,一个比股市崩盘更为重要的因素是20世纪30年代初期货币供应量的骤减。货币供应量的大幅下滑诱发了一场严重的通货紧缩(工资与物价下降),从而损害了经济运行状况。1931年和1932年,美国的物价每年下降将近10%。这种剧烈的通货紧缩导致家庭和企业认为未来的物价肯定会更低,从而推迟了采购和资本投资计划,需求和产出便受到了抑制。此外,使得各国货币与黄金挂钩的国际金本位制导致美国的通缩与萧条蔓延到了其他国家。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">弗里德曼和施瓦茨的视角令我大开眼界,但我想知道货币供应量的崩溃和随之而来的通货紧缩(虽然它们本身很严重)是否足以解释大萧条的严重程度和持续时间。1929年股市崩盘前,美国的失业率还不到5%,但到1933年就飙升到了25%。尽管通货紧缩主要发生在1933年之前,但美国的失业率直到美国宣布参加“二战”的前夕才降到10%以下。在我看来,银行系统的崩溃导致的信贷不足对经济衰退起到了推波助澜的作用,毕竟,在1929—1933年,美国25 000家银行中有9 700多家倒闭了。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在短短5年之内,美国竟然有超过三分之一的银行倒闭了,这肯定会严重降低信贷流量,并破坏经济。今天人们可能觉得这种观点是再平常不过的,但我刚刚在发表的论文中提出这种观点之际,却在各种会议和研讨会上引来了大量质疑。当时,许多经济学家认为金融体系基本上是一个会计体系,只是记录着谁拥有什么,不会独立地对经济产生重大的影响。当然,他们还认为,如果一家公司赖以获得贷款的银行倒闭了,那么这家公司将在其他地方找到融资。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">但在一个信息不对称的世界里,要想寻找一个替代性的融资渠道并不是一件容易的事情。事实上,一家银行崩溃之后,它积累的经验、信息和关系网络就会趋于崩溃,这可能会导致它服务的社区和企业付出十分沉重的代价。你可以想象一下,如果9 700多家银行纷纷倒闭,那将会产生多么大的破坏作用,你也就很容易理解为什么信贷体系的崩溃能够在一定程度上解释大萧条的严重性。我花了很多时间去寻找愿意发表我论文的期刊,最后,到1983年6月,终于在《美国经济评论》(American Economic Review)上发表了出来,而且被该期刊作为那一期的主要文章加以推荐。这本期刊是经济学领域名气最大的一本。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">后来,我与普林斯顿大学历史学家哈罗德·詹姆斯合作完成了一篇论文。在这篇论文中,我从国际视角对大萧条进行了解读。我们审视了22个国家在大萧条期间的经历,结果发现,有两个因素决定了一个国家经济衰退的严重程度。第一个因素是该国坚持实施金本位的时间长短。(那些较早放弃金本位的国家能够及时地增加货币供应量,因此得以及早摆脱通货紧缩。)这一发现与弗里德曼、施瓦茨二人对货币供应量的强调具有一致性。第二个因素是该国银行业危机的严重程度。这与我之前一贯坚持的“信贷与货币十分重要”的理论具有一致性。在20世纪80—90年代的大部分时间里,我与格特勒为了分析金融体系的问题在加剧经济衰退(包括普通衰退)过程中扮演的角色,做了大量的研究工作。后来,他的一个学生西蒙·吉尔克里斯特曾经加入我们,与我们一起做研究,现在,西蒙在波士顿大学工作。在研究过程中,我们发现了一种奇特的现象,我们将其称为“金融加速器”现象。金融加速器理论的基本观点是,经济衰退往往会吞噬信贷流量,反过来会导致经济衰退更加糟糕。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">金融加速器的传导机制同时作用于银行和借款者。从贷方角度来看,银行在经济衰退期间会遭受更大的贷款损失,这导致他们在做出放贷决策时更加谨慎。从借方的角度来看,当家庭与企业的收入、财富减少之际,它们的信誉度就可能会降低。更加谨慎的银行和信誉度降低的借方意味着信贷流量更少,从而阻碍家庭的采购计划和企业的投资计划实施。这些领域支出的减少加剧了经济衰退。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在经济上行之际,金融加速器则以相反的方式发挥作用。随着经济形势的不断改进,银行利润会增加,面临的贷款损失则会减少,放贷意愿趋于增强。借方的财务状况得到改善,变得更有信誉。这两个因素结合在一起,就会推动信贷流量增加,为经济复苏增添动力。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">金融加速器表明,正是由于信贷市场存在信息不对称的现象,所以,经济衰退一旦发生,就会更严重,而经济扩张一旦发生,则表现得更强劲。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我们的研究工作还凸显了一个更加具有普遍适用性的道理,即一个健康的金融体系对经济具有非常重要的意义。例如,如果家庭和企业的债务水平较高,那么经济衰退就会更严重,因为收入和盈利下降就会使得借方更加难以偿还现有债务或者更难获得更多信贷。同样,如果一个国家的银行体系在经济衰退刚刚开始之际就陷入了非常糟糕的状况,那么这个国家的经济衰退必然会因为信贷不足而严重加剧。在类似于大萧条的极端情况下,银行业的崩溃必然催生旷日持久的经济衰退。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">金融加速器理论也有助于解释为什么通货紧缩除了导致家庭和公司倾向于推迟采购计划,还会产生如此有害的后果。如果工资和物价下降,或者不下降,而是增长速度出人意料地缓慢,那么借款者的收入增长速度可能不会快到足以让他们及时偿还贷款的地步。借款者的还贷压力自然会降低其他类型的支出,他们较为薄弱的财务状况将使他们更难获得额外的信用。20世纪30年代的通货紧缩导致大范围的破产和违约现象,导致本已糟糕的经济形势更加恶化。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">通过广泛的阅读和深刻的研究,我逐渐总结出了一些具有永恒意义的教训,中央银行的银行家和其他决策者们应该牢牢记住这些教训。首先,在经济衰退时期、通货紧缩时期或者二者并存时期,应该采取强劲有力的货币政策,以期推动就业水平朝着充分就业的方向发展,并推动货币流通量恢复到正常水平。其次,政策制定者必须采取果断行动,保持金融稳定和正常的信贷流量。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">大萧条更一般的教训是,面对特殊情况,政策制定者必须准备跳出固有思维模式,如果必要,还应该大胆地挑战处于主导地位的传统经济思想。1933年就任美国总统的富兰克林·罗斯福面对明显的经济衰退,敢于实验,突破固有理论的桎梏,大刀阔斧地开展改革。虽然他的一些实验最后以失败而告终(比如1933年为了遏制物价下跌、削弱行业竞争而颁布的《全国产业复兴法案》就是如此),但事实证明,其他一些实验在经济复苏过程中扮演了至关重要的角色。特别引人注目的是,罗斯福大胆地挑战了当时的一些正统经济思想。比如,他在1933年采取的一系列举措摒弃了金本位制,货币供应量不再受制于政府持有的黄金数量。当时,罗斯福大幅增加货币供应量之后,货币紧缩几乎立刻就停止了。罗斯福为了平息肆虐的金融危机,在就职后的第三天,即1933年3月6日,宣布全国银行“休假”,这是他所采取的重建银行和经济结构的第一步。之后,国会通过《紧急银行法令》,对银行采取个别审查、颁发许可证制度,对有偿付能力的银行,允许尽快复业。13日至15日,全国绝大多数银行经过财政部审核,在政府监督下,分批陆续恢复营业。6月16日,国会通过了《1933年银行法》,建立了由联邦承担责任的联邦储备体系,建立了联邦存款保险机制。传统经济学家和保守的商业领袖对这些措施提出了猛烈抨击,但这些实验的确奏效了,银行信用很快得以恢复。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">当我在斯坦福大学的第六个年头到来之际,我开始思考我的职业选择。青年教师在一所大学待到6年之后,要么被授予终身教职,要么就会选择离开。斯坦福大学的管理者之前已经向我透露过口风,说我的前途一片光明。后来,普林斯顿大学教务长、经济学家乌戈·索南夏因在访问斯坦福大学期间,敦促我考虑加入他们。普林斯顿大学知名度最高的经济学家艾伦·布林德也给我打来电话相邀。在斯坦福大学,我在1983年从助理教授晋升为副教授,当时还没有获得终身教职。而此刻,斯坦福大学和普林斯顿大学都为31岁的我提供了正教授的教职。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">从专业角度来讲,这两个地方我都喜欢,但安娜更喜欢普林斯顿。6年前,我们都渴望改变,于是我们离开了坎布里奇镇和韦尔斯利学院,来到了加州生活。1982年12月,我们的儿子乔尔就出生在加州。安娜认为普林斯顿那种绿树成荫的环境更有利于家庭生活。我觉得这个选择也不错。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">因此,在1985年,我们横跨美国大陆,搬到了新泽西州的罗基希尔。那是一个历史悠久的村子,人口约700人,与普林斯顿大学的校园相距4英里。我们买了一栋两层高的、具有殖民地风格的房子,而且有一个大院子,院子里栽着一棵苹果树和一棵无花果树,封闭式门廊外面还栽着一株大大的杜鹃花树。生活在这样的环境中,我们感觉怡然自得。那个村子里的家庭似乎都有孩子。他们在一个个院子之间来回散步。1986年6月,我们的女儿阿莉莎出生在那里。戴维·罗默和他的妻子克里斯蒂娜刚刚加入普林斯顿大学经济学系,住的地方与我们有一个街区的距离,当时克里斯蒂娜正怀着宝宝。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在洛基希尔居住了6年之后,我们搬到了蒙哥马利镇一栋更大的房子里面。那儿距离普林斯顿大学的校园大约有8英里。我们并不孤单。很多有孩子的家庭都纷纷涌向那个镇子。那个镇子原本是一片农场,但变化非常迅速,很快成了纽约的远郊,聚集了很多富人家庭。随着报名入学的孩子越来越多,这个镇子的学校(也服务于洛基希尔的孩子们)很快就难以承受了。我和安娜都属于教育工作者(当时她在普林斯顿走读学校教西班牙语),我们都坚定地认为每一个孩子都应该得到高质量的教育。我们自己的孩子上的是公立学校。安娜跟当地的家长们接触得比较多,她说服我竞选当地的教育委员会。她后来对别人说是她让我参选的。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我当选了,而且当选了两次,连续服务了6年。在当地,像我们这样新搬来的居民总是想要更多更好的学校,而那些长期生活在当地的“土著”居民则不这么想,他们担心教育成本会上涨。这两类群体之间永远存在着矛盾。这也令我那6年备感煎熬。我不止一次地观察到,这两类人最关心的事情有两件,一件是孩子的福利,一件是能否减少纳税。但这两种想法是冲突的。2000年,也就是我在当地教育委员会的最后一年,我投出了打破平局的一票,希望选民们批准学区发行债券,并增加不动产税,以便筹措兴建新学校所需的费用。5年后,一所新学校终于投入了运营,但那时,我和安娜已经搬到了华盛顿,乔尔和阿莉莎都已经在上大学了。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在普林斯顿大学工作期间,在新同事和新经济思想的影响下,我的研究兴趣经历了持续不断的演变。我开始更多地关注货币政策,包括货币政策的运作机制、如何评估货币政策是紧缩还是宽松,以及如何评估货币政策变动对经济运行产生的影响。得益于这些研究,我在波士顿、费城和纽约的联邦储备银行以及华盛顿的美联储理事会担任顾问和访问学者,先后多次拜访这些机构。我还利用休假时间在麻省理工学院访问了一年,在纽约大学访问了一个学期。时常与我合作写文章、写书的马克·格特勒现在就在纽约大学教学。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我对世界各国央行采用的知识架构特别感兴趣。它们利用这些知识架构制定货币政策,并向市场和公众传达自己的决策与意图。1992年,我与弗雷德里克·米什金共同完成了针对六国央行政策框架的案例研究,为我研究央行的知识架构奠定了基础。我和米什金在麻省理工学院的研究生院读博士期间,曾经有过合作经历,发现我们拥有相似的兴趣,比如,我们都对研究金融危机和大萧条非常感兴趣。米什金性格有些傲慢,经常十分固执地坚持自己的意见,有时离谱得可笑。相比之下,马克·格特勒则比较冷静和低调。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">1992年,我与米什金合写论文的时候,“通胀目标制”这个前景十分光明的货币政策架构还是一个新理念。简单地讲,“通胀目标制”是指中央银行直接对外宣布将在未来某个时间范围之内(比如一年或两年内)实现某个水平的通货膨胀(比如2%),然后,在公众的监督下,运用相应的货币政策工具使通货膨胀的实际值和预测目标相吻合。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">当然,央行不可能仅仅通过“对外宣布”就能将通胀率维持在稳定的低位。它必须拿出切实行动,即在必要的情况下调整货币政策(通常是提升或降低基准利率),以便在其宣称的时间范围内,实现对外宣称的通胀目标。如果央行做不到它对外宣称的事情,那么宣布一个官方目标也不会起到很大的作用。然而,宣布一个通胀目标会给政策制定者们“灌输”纪律和责任,因为这会迫使他们实现预定目标,或者如果预定目标没有实现,也会迫使他们对公众解释一下为什么没有实现。对于大多数央行而言,通胀目标制的一个关键元素就是频繁地与公众沟通。这些沟通既可以是前瞻性的,告诉公众央行的目标是什么以及计划采取哪些措施来实现目标,同时也可以是回顾性的,告诉公众央行过去的表现如何。这样,通过与公众的沟通,一方面有利于增强公众对货币政策的信心,另一方面也有利于公众评估中央银行货币政策的实际效果。新西兰央行就是实施通胀目标制的先驱——早在1990年就开始实施了。加拿大央行在1991年开始实施。之后,英国、瑞典、澳大利亚、智利、以色列等国家的央行纷纷开始效仿。最终,几十个国家,包括发达国家和新兴市场经济体,都采用了这种方法。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">后来,在1997年完成的一篇论文中,我和米什金回顾了较早采取通胀目标制的国家的经济发展状况,并且提出了一个问题:美国是否也能够通过这种方法受益呢?这个问题是有争议的,因为美联储一直非常珍视其灵活应对经济发展问题的“自由裁量权”,不愿受制于一个事先宣布的目标。正如这种方法的批评者指出的那样,在艾伦·格林斯潘和保罗·沃尔克这两位主席的任期内,美联储充分发挥了自由裁量权,取得了良好的效果,将通胀率从1980年13.5%的峰值降低到了20世纪90年代晚期的2%。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">然而,我与米什金仍然认为通胀目标制将能够改善美国的货币政策。首先,设定一个永久的通胀目标有利于从制度上确保美联储继续沿用沃尔克和格林斯潘在20世纪80—90年代降低和稳定通胀率,并催生经济扩张的政策。从我们的角度来看,同样重要的一个方面是,伴随着通胀目标制,政策透明度将有所提高,塑造市场对于利率的预期,帮助美联储更好地实现既定目标。相比之下,不透明的政策将促使市场不停地做出不必要的猜测。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在其他论文中,我指出,通胀目标制既可以帮助那些通胀率居高不下的国家,也可以帮助那些存在相反情形的国家,即那些存在通缩问题的国家,比如日本。日本在20世纪90年代经历了一个“失去的10年”,最终,事实表明日本其实经历了两个“失去的10年”,经济增速长期低位徘徊,经济全面衰退。这个国家面临着很多问题,包括劳动力老龄化、低生育率、限制移民、农业和服务业低效、银行深陷困境而难以自拔。日本曾经是世界上最具活力的经济体之一,现在却变成了世界上最低迷的发达经济体之一。在我看来,一个主要原因肯定是20世纪90年代初股市与房地产市场的崩溃以及接踵而至的通缩。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在1999年的一篇论文中,我就提出通胀目标制有助于促使日本银行(即日本的中央银行)更加迅速地对持续下降的通胀率做出反应,从而防止日本陷入通缩的泥潭,即便日本已经陷入了通缩的泥潭,通胀目标制也是它走出这个泥潭的一剂良方。当时,日本央行已经将短期利率降到了零,并承诺在“通货紧缩的忧虑消退”之前,将一直保持零利率的政策。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">然而,由于当时日本的物价水平在不停地下跌,日本迫切需要采取更加宽松的货币政策,而其决策者却一再宣称,因为利率不能低于零,他们已经无能为力了。我不同意这种观点。首先,我建议日本央行不要继续含糊不清地承诺消除人们对通缩的忧虑,而是应该设定明确的通胀目标,从而扭转公众的通胀预期。其次,我注意到,即使在短期利率接近于零的情况下,日本也可以运用其他工具来刺激经济,比如购买大量的金融资产,这也是米尔顿·弗里德曼提出的建议。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我想我对日本经济形势的“诊断”是正确的。日本经济的发展态势果真与我之前设想的情形是一致的。事实上,大概14年后,日本银行采纳了我的建议。然而,我讲话的语气有时比较严厉。2000年1月,在波士顿的一次会议上,我质问日本官员们是否罹患了“自我瘫痪”,指责他们为了逃避采取行动而把微小的制度障碍和技术障碍作为自己的挡箭牌,批评他们以“困惑的或缺乏一致性的”态度对待像我这样的学者提出的有用建议,最后指责他们不愿意大胆尝试。我有些武断地高声说道:“或许日本是时候拿出一些罗斯福式的决心了。”之后几年里,我自己也经历了政客、社论,甚至经济学界同行提出的猛烈批评,之后我发现,如果时光能够倒流,我希望能够收回当时对日本官员发表的那些尖刻言论。2011年,在回答一家日本报纸的记者提出的问题时,我坦白地说道:“我现在比10年前更加同情日本央行官员。”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">1996年,我受邀出任普林斯顿大学经济系主任。当时,麻省理工学院和哈佛大学被普遍认为拥有全美最好的经济学系,芝加哥大学、斯坦福大学和普林斯顿则紧随其后。我想让普林斯顿大学更上一层楼。雇用最优秀教员的竞争是非常激烈的,但我们成功地从其他学校挖到了两个未来的诺贝尔奖得主,一个是当时在麻省理工学院工作的保罗·克鲁格曼,另一个是当时在耶鲁大学工作的克里斯托弗·西姆斯。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">我担任经济系主任后不久负责的一个项目是为建设普林斯顿大学本德海姆金融研究中心(Bendheim Center for Finance)筹措资金。这是一个跨学科研究中心,是普林斯顿大学的经济系与专注于统计数据和金融数学的工程学院联合举办的一个项目,以便用量化和数学方式开展金融领域的跨学科研究。在20世纪90年代末,常春藤盟校的学生都渴望到华尔街工作。但是,与其他许多存在竞争关系的大学或科研机构不同的是,普林斯顿大学没有自己的商学院。我们只是通过本德海姆金融研究中心提供金融方面的本科毕业证书,以及人数较少但技术含量较高的金融学硕士学位。事实证明,我们提供的证书是非常受欢迎的。我们还逐步加强了金融相关领域内的教师实力。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">在普林斯顿大学担任系主任,虽然会带来一些名誉,也能主导本系工作日程的设置,但事实上并没有多少实权。重要的事情都是取决于全系教师的共识,学校领导也会产生相当大的影响力。我后来开玩笑说,我负责的重大抉择就是在咖啡时间提供甜甜圈还是百吉饼。教师招聘和任期是争议最激烈的领域。教授们总是倾向于推荐与自己具有类似观点的同事或者能够帮助自己加强学科建设的同事。我很快发现,对于一群主见非常强、自我意识非常高的大学教师而言,通过行政指令化解争端很难奏效。我不得不跟他们一遍遍地商量,一遍遍地倾听和再倾听,通常,如果人们有机会表达自己内心的忧虑,即便最终结果对他们不利,他们依然会产生满足感。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">当普林斯顿大学经济系主任的任期将要结束之际,我期待着摆脱纷繁复杂的行政事务,花更多的时间去追求自己的专业兴趣,并写点东西。当时,我刚刚获得了两个新的职位,这两个职位使我能够对货币经济学领域的研究方向施加更大的影响力。2000年,我被任命为国家经济研究局货币经济学项目主任(一个非营利组织,总部位于马萨诸塞州坎布里奇镇)。一年后,我被《美国经济评论》聘为主编。我已经开始写一本关于大萧条的书,我希望它能吸引广大读者。我当时已经写了120页,暂定的标题是“时代的错觉:政客和中央银行家如何制造了大萧条”。</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">2002年初的一天,我经济系办公室外面的电话响了起来。来电者是曾经担任哥伦比亚大学教授的格伦·哈伯德,他当时正担任小布什总统经济顾问委员会主席。一位行政助理问我:“您能接一下电话吗?”</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">----------------------------------------------------------------------------</span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" /></span></span></div><div style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">本文摘自伯南克作品《行动的勇气》,中信出版社2016年5月出版,严禁其它平台各种形式的转载。</span></span></div><div><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; font-family: Arial; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; font-size: 14px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><br /></span></span></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-14829186795767283562022-10-13T19:17:00.004-07:002022-10-13T19:18:02.872-07:00失败未必是坏事<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ2eoNL54evOYiOy2JMaJuPCHVZPwDl2lObRzFtWVLCeri8w4vqa-Rjhsme4LuV8jg6PwcDJaAAgTpFc3eYqiX4Is-ruRZSbgK0GDxnqJAprn5RRFu-_rjt9MNSxm-ElQkarvXTMQtdHuLaeVA4PNjObKLLphWbrVFJT7YsD7UnNdqtE8VcSR2p9gMxA/s960/umbrella-6239364_960_720.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="638" data-original-width="960" height="308" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZ2eoNL54evOYiOy2JMaJuPCHVZPwDl2lObRzFtWVLCeri8w4vqa-Rjhsme4LuV8jg6PwcDJaAAgTpFc3eYqiX4Is-ruRZSbgK0GDxnqJAprn5RRFu-_rjt9MNSxm-ElQkarvXTMQtdHuLaeVA4PNjObKLLphWbrVFJT7YsD7UnNdqtE8VcSR2p9gMxA/w463-h308/umbrella-6239364_960_720.jpg" width="463" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div class="field field-name-field-image field-type-image field-label-hidden" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><div class="field-items" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; width: auto !important;"><div class="field-item even" rel="og:image rdfs:seeAlso" resource="https://botanwang.com/sites/default/files/styles/632_n/public/field/image/umbrella-6239364_960_720.jpg?itok=inu7Wk1W" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; width: auto !important;"><a data-image="true" href="https://botanwang.com/sites/default/files/field/image/umbrella-6239364_960_720.jpg" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; float: none !important; font-weight: 600; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-decoration-line: none !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; user-select: none;"><img alt="" data-href="https://botanwang.com/sites/default/files/field/image/umbrella-6239364_960_720.jpg" data-link="true" src="reeder-https://botanwang.com/sites/default/files/styles/632_n/public/field/image/umbrella-6239364_960_720.jpg?itok=inu7Wk1W" style="background-image: none !important; border-radius: calc(min(1px, (100vw - min(var(--media-max-width), 960px))) * 3); border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; display: block; float: none !important; left: calc(min(0px, 50% - 0.5 * min(var(--media-max-width), 960px))); max-width: none !important; mix-blend-mode: var(--blend-mode) !important; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; width: calc(min(var(--media-max-width), 960px));" typeof="foaf:Image" /></a></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); float: none !important; font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; text-size-adjust: auto; width: auto !important;"><div class="field-items" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; width: auto !important;"><div class="field-item even" property="content:encoded" style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; height: auto !important; margin-bottom: 0px !important; margin-top: 0px !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding-bottom: 0px !important; padding-top: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important; width: auto !important;"><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">约翰</span><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">·</span><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">斯卡利(</span><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">John Sculley</span><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">)经历过不少失败,但有一次失败却在他的职业生涯中打下了永久的烙印。</span></p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">20世纪80年代末,时任苹果首席执行官的斯卡利批准了一个名为“牛顿”(Newton)的项目。从本质上讲,那应该算是早期的iPad,它配备的个人助理功能还将为如今的Siri开辟道路。由于看好这款产品的未来前景,斯卡利向这个项目投入了1亿多美元。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">但由于当时没有手机网络,上网渠道也非常有限,所以“牛顿”的实际用途很少。换句话说,“牛顿”是个超前的项目。苹果原计划在上市第一年卖出100万台“牛顿”,但实际销量仅为5万台。1993年,濒临破产的苹果将斯卡利扫地出门。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“当时真的很难堪,我内心极度受挫。”斯卡利最近在纽约回忆起那段往事时说,“我花了好几年时间才走出那段阴影,这的确对我打击很大。”</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">但经过一段时间以后,斯卡利却从全新的视角来看待那次失败。那是一次让他可以吸取教训的失败,而在他如今拥有的科技和医疗保健企业里,斯卡利已经学会利用“牛顿”的失败经验来帮助他判断采纳新技术的时机。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">斯卡利这种承认错误、并利用错误来修正未来决策的能力,成为了商业领域的全新概念。加拿大毅伟商学院(Ivey Business School)组织行为学教授杰拉德·赛基斯(Gerard Seijts)表示,一代人以前,人们都希望最高管理者是绝对正确的——至少表面如此。当他们犯错时,都会把责任转嫁给他人,然后继续工作,希望别人不要再提及此事。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">当然,有的公司可能至今仍然如此。“不要自欺欺人。在某些组织里,失败会葬送整个职业生涯。”身为Ian O. Ihnatowycz 领导力学院执行董事的赛基斯说,“这就像有人落水后立刻寻找责任人一样。”</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">但赛基斯表示,在管理能力较强的公司,失败是冒险过程中可以接受的一部分。失败之后要花时间寻找原因,总结经验教训,还要奖励员工的冒险精神。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">如何应对失败</span></p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">赛基斯说,第一步是接受失败,并肩负责任。出了问题后不要忙着解雇员工。要把失败视作团队的集体损失,而且要勇于承认是你制定的决策——至少也是你同意了这项决策——导致了失败。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“反省失败的原因或许才是最重要的步骤。”赛基斯说。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">密歇根大学罗斯商学院副院长兼教授林恩·武藤(Lynn Wooten)表示,总结失败是确保你的团队从中吸取经验教训最为关键的步骤。“必须要放下身段,亲自与团队会面。”她说,“这种事情无法通过电子邮件来完成。”</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">必须确保你的员工愿意在失败后进行评估。你要让他们明白,这不是为了寻找责任人,应该毫无顾虑地把你所承担的那部分责任告诉自己的老板。“不要让他们产生心理负担,而要放松心态。他们需要知道你不会伤害他们。”武藤说。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">通过这一系列评估,大家就会恢复信心,相信项目会越来越好。或许你还没有制定好下一步计划——通过与员工的会面或许可以确定方案——但你的团队需要知道,你身为一个领导者,将会带领他们走向正确的方向。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“作为一名管理者,你要承认失败,但仍然要让他们感觉你能掌控全局,这并不容易。”武藤说。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><span style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: var(--bold-text-color) !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">失败后的计划</span></p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">评估完成后,就该确定今后应该部署哪些变化。你的团队需要知道接下来的禁区,避免再犯同样的错误。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">之后应该制定目标,以便员工能够为新的目标努力奋斗。定期检查,确保达标,避免失败。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">未能成功</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“牛顿”的失败困扰了斯卡利许多年,但他最终还是找到了一种方法来应对那场失败。那次失败众所周知,这意味着除了常见的挫败感之外,他还要承受自尊心所遭受的打击。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“失败一点也不好玩。这令人难堪,而且确实会打击你的自信。”斯卡利说。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">但斯卡利在商界所遭遇的困境并非都以如此悲惨的结局收场。当他1977至1983年运营百事可乐公司期间,也曾遭遇过一场失败,但最终的结果却好得多。该公司当时花了许多年时间来设计一款玻璃瓶,希望与可口可乐标志性的沙漏状玻璃瓶竞争。但所有的设计都侵犯了可口可乐的注册商标。所以,百事可乐接受了失败,转变了方向。该公司决定为消费者提供更大的包装,而正是这种2升的塑料瓶帮助他们重新定义了软饮料行业。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">如今,斯卡利看待当年在苹果的那场失败时的态度也发生了很大变化。iPad在最近几年的流行证明他当年的眼光没有错——只是推向市场的时间有点过早。他本人也从中吸取了教训,这也在斯卡利最近几年创办几家新公司时给他带来了帮助。例如,他是手机运营商Metro PCS的创始投资人,也是软件制造商Open Peak的董事,还是新加坡低价智能手机制造商Obi的创始人。</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;">“与任何一个多年担任企业高管的人一样,我也经历过很多失败。”斯卡利说,“秘诀在于如何处理这些失败,然后调整方向。”</p><p style="background-image: none !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; color: inherit !important; float: none !important; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; position: relative !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;"><a data-image="false" href="https://www.bbc.com/capital/story/20150112-this-setback-can-save-you" style="-webkit-box-decoration-break: clone !important; background-image: none !important; border-radius: 5px !important; border: 0px !important; box-shadow: none !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; float: none !important; font-weight: 600; margin: -0.15em -0.25em; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px !important; padding: 0.15em 0.25em; position: relative !important; text-decoration-line: none !important; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none !important;" target="_blank">阅读原文:Why failure isn't always a bad thing<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></a></p></div></div></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-40822384009396077332022-10-13T19:06:00.002-07:002022-10-27T01:00:44.172-07:00教培行业“坠落”后<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuR5840yTWHGVXLIOjYNJjkWELKk2OXtiX1GSVD-WIeQ1qfgoAivRlzjxuXLopcBK5bniZH6mijvUydX7-nZn36wPML76i1BpLK-Qd1ECbxHXTjHsDkclE03T9PuLKwlikaHywFValNhJMndGDqcDM2eMiC1ibvo086HKt39xDzScOfFRLhZU1ePEJhw/s290/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20221027160011.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="239" data-original-width="290" height="307" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuR5840yTWHGVXLIOjYNJjkWELKk2OXtiX1GSVD-WIeQ1qfgoAivRlzjxuXLopcBK5bniZH6mijvUydX7-nZn36wPML76i1BpLK-Qd1ECbxHXTjHsDkclE03T9PuLKwlikaHywFValNhJMndGDqcDM2eMiC1ibvo086HKt39xDzScOfFRLhZU1ePEJhw/w372-h307/%E5%BE%AE%E4%BF%A1%E6%88%AA%E5%9B%BE_20221027160011.png" width="372" /></a></div><br /><p><br /></p><article style="box-sizing: border-box; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; padding: 0px 0px 100px; position: relative; text-size-adjust: auto;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; line-height: var(--line-height) !important; padding-left: var(--content-padding) !important; width: var(--content-width) !important;"><div class="field field-name-body field-type-text-with-summary field-label-hidden" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"><div class="field-items" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"><div class="field-item even" property="content:encoded" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">花花2016 年进入教培行业,在双减之前,她的年薪已超过50 万。刘昱凌在深圳做了十几年的豪宅经纪人,行情好的时候,每年收入都能超过百万。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">她们身处的行业,经历过烈火烹油的繁荣,也因为各种原因,迎来了断崖式下跌。她们是曾经的受益者,今天,又成为行业震荡下的亲历者。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">一个工作日的下午,在花花晚上的课开始之前,我们碰了一面。这个热情的女孩身材娇小,有一头羊毛卷长发,浅金色眼影和亮片,在她的笑脸上并不突兀,反而增添了一种古灵精怪的活力。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">2020 年,花花从深圳一所学校辞职,加入北京的一家线上教育平台。她的目标很明确,“两三年后拿到百万年薪”,那时候,进入这家平台的同事们,都是奔着这个目标去的。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">工作一年多后,双减政策出台,花花经历了收入锐减、被裁员、再求职受挫等一系列波折。她恐慌过,也绝望过。3 个月前,她在政策的缝隙里,发现了教培的新机会。即便如此,危机感还是悬在花花头顶,“如果政策再往下切,我又没机会了”。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">在过去的一年多里,花花和她的同事们经历了哪些动荡,一个教培从业者,又是如何审视当下的教育大环境的。以下为花花的自述:</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"></span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">“奔着百万年薪去的</span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"></span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">”</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">2020 年,我从深圳一所学校辞职,去了北京一家知名的线上教育平台。父母和身边的很多朋友都不理解,那是一所公办民营的学校,非常稳定,月收入也有2 万。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">去学校教书之前,我在深圳学而思工作过两年。在学校的最后一段时间,我隔三差五就能接到猎头的电话。那时线上教育平台四处挖人,我在教培和学校都工作过,这样职业履历,估计比较吸引他们。那时候,我手里的offer 可以随便挑。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">线上教育平台开出的薪水非常诱人,清北网校的招聘广告上开出了200 万年薪,这个数目,在我们同行中算是少数,<span style="color: red;">像<span style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">我们这些</span><span style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">主讲老师,年薪四五十万很正常</span>。我入职这家线上教育平台时,谈到的年薪已经超过了50 万。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">在线上教育平台,主讲老师的收入分三块——基础工资,课时费和续报率奖金,最后一项占了大头。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">年薪百万的老师,收入大头就是续报率奖金。续报率,就是有多少家长,报名参加了下一个阶段的课程,通俗点说,就是卖出了多少课。<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">大家底薪差不多,销售收入其实占很大一部分。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">百万讲师就像网红一样,学历和职业背景都要特别牛,毕业院校在全球排得上名,在名校有十几年的执教经验,这样的履历,更容易吸引家长。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span color="inherit !important">我们<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">既是老师,也是销售</span>。</span><span style="color: red;">教学组每半年定一个目标,9.9 拉新课的转化率要达到多少,续报率要达到多少,还要立军令状,达不到要怎么样怎么样。工作群里每天都会公布续报率,这个年级达到了多少,哪个人还没有达到。你在每次开播之前,都要顶着KPI 的压力。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span color="inherit !important">每个月我们要在直播间里开家长会,主要目的就引导他们续报课程。</span><span style="color: red;">直播间运营的小伙伴都是从京东、抖音挖过来的。几点几分几秒,直播老师要进入营销话术。时间点和话术,这些都是课前打磨好的。当时知名的线上教育平台,几乎都是这么操作的。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">这种方式我们自己也觉得不太真诚,肯定有人不适应这一套。坐在我对面的女生,毕业于美国一所极负盛名的学校。那时候线上教育平台有钱,招了一批世界名校毕业生。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">那位女生待了不久,就辞去了这份高薪工作,她之前没有接触过这种鸡血式营销,线上教育平台的很多做法,跟她理解中的教育也是相悖的。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">与行业一起下沉</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">去年年中,我们刚定好下半年的目标,双减不开一点玩笑就来了。所有的计划被全部打乱了,新开的班全关了,续报节奏全得重新规划。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">第一批大裁员在去年6 月,前一天我们毫不知情。公司只通知大家要开会,结果有些同事一到工位,就发现内网登不上了,接下来会发生什么,大家心里也能猜的出来。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">办公室里弥漫着恐慌情绪,一个个人被HR 叫进了会议室。大家商量着接下来该怎么办,很多人说要去送外卖。没多久后,<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">我认识的一个辅导老师,真的就去送外卖了</span>。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">那是行业裁员最厉害的阶段,打开求职软件,很多招聘启事都会特别标注“教培勿扰”。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">每送走一批被裁的同事,我们就跑去喝酒,喝大了一群人抱头痛哭。我们当中很多人,毕业后就走了这条路,大家都是奔着几年后年薪百万的目标来的。<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">突然间,这条路被堵得死死的</span>,心理落差太大了。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">很多人离开了一线城市,回了老家。一个比较熟悉的同事,回到东北老家做了高中语文老师,很稳定,收入也不高,他接受了,因为没有别的可能了。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">等待“被裁”这个靴子落地,我等了9 个月。每一天,公司里都有新的变动,天天都有人离开,办公室从最高档的写字楼搬出,地点换了一个又一个。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span style="color: red;">离职前一个月,我的收入是2 万7</span><span color="inherit !important">,这跟之前的工资差了许多。双减之后,你不能随便拉新了,续报课程的直播间里,很多推销词汇成为违禁词,像“我是名师”、“教过的学生拿到什么第一”,放大量的好评截图这些,都是不允许的。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">双减政策每隔段时间,又会有新的细微变动,有时白天准备好晚上的直播,临上课接到文件,说这个不能讲。直播的两个小时我战战兢兢的,你讲错一个字,被质检、教育部门看到,就是一级违规,扣钱、批评、通报。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">我所在的线上教育平台,双减之前有4 万员工,到我走的时候剩下不到一万。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">坚持到后面,我们就麻木了,甚至希望快点被裁掉,拿到N+1 赔偿。我们公司算是好的,很多同行只拿到1 个月的赔偿,有些更过分的平台,1 分钱赔偿都不给。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">即便是百万名师,收入也会锐减。双减之后家长在直播间里,对续保课程也会非常犹豫。我们做过统计,双减前后的续报率,降了10%。不过他们前面赚到了钱,经济上要更自由一些,我认识两个年收入超过百万的老师,一个去了国际学校,一个出国了。他们留在平台,也有机会转型做素质教育。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">被裁员之后,本来我还在想在北京挣扎一下,看看机会。但是找了一圈,感觉挺惨的,要么收入不高,要么对方不认你的职业经验。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">那个时候,对于留在教培行业,我是不抱一点希望的。认识的同事当中,也没有一个人还能留在这一行。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">那些比我更早离开的同事,转行特别困难,学历漂亮的还好一些,学历一般的找工作更难。我们在教培机构的经验,很多招老师的学校根本不认可。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">有些同事去了私立学校,或者做代课老师,有的去了成人教育机构。有个<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">原来教英语的同事,转行卖茶叶,在直播间里喊</span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"></span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">“家人们买我的茶叶,我送大家英语拼读课</span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"></span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">”,有个同事回到老家,在小卖部里卖鞭炮。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">不管怎么转,大家都不得不接受收入上的落差,做老师的收入大概在五六千到1 万之间。我们在线上教育平台时,一个教学组的同事当中,<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">当时收入最少的也有</span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">2 万,多的能到70 万以上。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">焦虑的家长,不快乐的孩子</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">离开北京以后,我回到深圳,借住在朋友家里,陆陆续续往学校投了一些简历。那段时间我自己也不清楚该怎么办。想过回学校,想过出国,想过回老家躺平。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">躺了两三个月后,以前学而思的老同事找到我,说他们要组个班,缺语文老师。那时候我闲着没事就去帮忙。上了几节课发现,还是做自己舒服、喜欢的工作,比较快乐。而且,在绝大多数同行离开教培行业的情况下,<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">留下来的少数人,能找到的机会更多了</span>。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">那个阶段,我也接到了学校的offer,最后还是选择做教培。在学校做老师,差不多要从早上9 点待到晚上12 点,非常辛苦,也不如做教培自由。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">我们现在的形式,就是个人工作室,几个老师合伙的形式,语文、数学、英语、理化各科都有,四五个学生组成一个小班,哪里的家长有需要,我就在附近租个教室上课,非常灵活机动。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">教培行业火爆的时候,家长不认个人工作室,他们更相信品牌。也就是现在的环境下,他们才愿意接受我们这种工作室。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">据我了解,也就是一线城市能有我们的生存空间,其他地方家长的消费力也没那么高,教育环境也没有这么卷。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">也不是所有的同行,都能适应这样的生存方式。这要依赖你过往的履历,自己手里的家长资源。尤其<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">深圳的家长,很挑,很多人一上来就会说,只要学而思出来的老师</span>。在决定报名之前,多数家长还会先试听一节课,这也是学而思留下的传统。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">其实我们也有政策上的危机感,如果双减这把刀再往下切,我们可能也没法干下去,现在,大家都是<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">抱着</span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"></span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">“干了今天没明天</span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"></span><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">”的心态</span>。我们有些同行,组的班人数多一些,经常被举报。按照政策,周末是绝对不允许上辅导课的,但是周末的辅导课是最多的,所以监管部门一上门,你是无话可说的。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span color="inherit !important">就我接触到的家长来说,大家的焦虑感,双减后并未减弱。毕竟深圳高中升学率摆在这里。我有一个小学3 年级的学生,他的时间<span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">从周一到周日</span>,被各种课程塞得满满当当。</span><span style="color: red;">有次我想调个时间上课,他家长跟我说,“调不了老师,<span style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">没有任何机动时间</span>”。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">我一边给孩子们上课,一边又觉得他们可怜。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">像我上的阅读课,看起来更像是素质教育。但我清楚,家长们的终极目标还是提分,小学二三年级的时候,做一些阅读兴趣训练和写作练笔,家长的心态还比较平和。但是到了五六年级,就不行了,“小升初啦,绝对要提分了”,功利性非常明显。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span style="color: red;">其实从我们的经验来看,<span style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">30%的孩子,上辅导班学了跟没学一样</span>,有的孩子的天分可能在其他地方。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span style="color: red;">上了一段时间没啥效果,我一般建议家长,不要让孩子在这上面浪费太多时间。可很多时候,家长还是会坚持上下去,因为别人家孩子都在上。在这个问题上,他们不太理性。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">我接触的大部分孩子,家境都不错。他们即便不那么卷,家里也有条件,给他们准备好几条退路,孩子是可以不那么辛苦的。可家长会觉得,周围的孩子,尤其家境更好的那些孩子,都在疯狂地往前走,自己孩子走得慢了,不就成了异类。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><span color="var(--bold-text-color) !important" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">我觉得大部分家长,不太能坦诚地接受,自己的孩子做个快乐的普通人。</span></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;">这是一个大环境的问题,作为教培老师,我非常不希望孩子生活在这样的教育环境里。我们这个行业的很多老师,在这行干的越久,就越觉得将来不要生娃。</p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><br /></p><p style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none;"><br /></p><p style="color: black; font-family: "PingFang SC"; font-size: medium;"> <span color="inherit" face="system-ui" style="font-size: 16px;">来源: </span></p><article style="box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; padding: 0px 0px 100px; position: relative; text-size-adjust: auto;"><div style="box-sizing: content-box; line-height: var(--line-height) !important; padding-left: var(--content-padding) !important; width: var(--content-width) !important;"><div class="field field-name-field-source field-type-text field-label-inline clearfix" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"><div class="field-items" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"><div class="field-item even" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;">深圳微时光</div><div class="field-item even" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"><br /></div></div></div></div></article></div></div></div><div class="field field-name-field-taxonomy field-type-taxonomy-term-reference field-label-above" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"><div class="field-items" style="background-image: none; border: 0px; box-shadow: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: inherit; float: none; height: auto; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 0px; max-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px; position: relative; text-rendering: optimizelegibility; text-shadow: none; width: auto;"></div></div></div></article><iframe style="border-style: initial !important; border-width: 0px !important; box-sizing: border-box !important; caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.55); font-family: system-ui; font-size: 16px; left: 0px !important; min-height: 100%; position: absolute !important; text-size-adjust: auto; top: 0px !important; width: 0px !important; z-index: 9 !important;"></iframe>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5839505889850458559.post-57929430647746427242022-10-03T01:57:00.007-07:002022-10-03T02:06:24.042-07:00 炒股养家清华演讲(万字长文)<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFXV_FIIGk41JlWBfZZmVpXUEo_h50s45urMCJFO5WYFmaYUCYrP_768I2TSARGOai5NGV4d2NtjO1jrulUXJtVNJWp6hF7NZO4UaUWQCxm-tjdrx6KiPKlE3Lombq01VD74dcKScNbAoo0FAyphbGmh2vNOFVd_uAkH5WU41r08LSE8lXGjcvEiVmg/s1440/v2-c3d105664d01802a61d369235c93eb30_1440w.jpeg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><img border="0" data-original-height="810" data-original-width="1440" height="297" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjLFXV_FIIGk41JlWBfZZmVpXUEo_h50s45urMCJFO5WYFmaYUCYrP_768I2TSARGOai5NGV4d2NtjO1jrulUXJtVNJWp6hF7NZO4UaUWQCxm-tjdrx6KiPKlE3Lombq01VD74dcKScNbAoo0FAyphbGmh2vNOFVd_uAkH5WU41r08LSE8lXGjcvEiVmg/w528-h297/v2-c3d105664d01802a61d369235c93eb30_1440w.jpeg" width="528" /></span></a></div><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span><p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br /></span></p><span style="font-size: medium;"><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;" /></span><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">(注:这篇文章给我最大的启发,是养家提到的色即是空。我们现在总结的规律只是一时的,必须要不断的变化,才能在市场存活。)</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">我们所有人来到股票市场,最终都是要来赚钱,那么我们如何才能获得市场的超额收益呢?不同的市场参与者,他们因为不同的模式都有自己获得超额收益的策略和方法,譬如那些公募基金他们能看到的是 1 年或者 3 年,而巴菲特他却能看到 5 年 10 年 20 年,那么在这个角度上巴菲特获得了认知上的超额收益。那么今天我们要想在 A 股市场获得超额收益的话,你应该更多的对散户的情绪变化,去做一个研究和了解。在这个基础上你才有更多的机会获得一个超额收益。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 不同的市场是因为不同的投资主体组成,他们的行为和认知决定了市场的生态系统,如何在不同的生态系统里面寻找到优势策略获取超额收益,是每一个想要成功的投资者获得成功的关键。从这个角度去看,美国是一个机构化的投资市场,他们最主要的问题就是委托代理问题,机构可接受的时间周期有限,他们也只希望能够去看到 1-3 年的未来去获取超额收益,这样巴菲特这种长期投资者就会获得策略的优势。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">变是不变的,这句话我也是在前两年当市场行情不是太好的时候,然后我去看一些哲学方面的书,做一些哲学方面的研究的时候感悟深刻。然后,偶然看到了这个色即是空,所谓的凡所有相皆为虚妄。以前虽然我也知道这些话,但是在没有研究股票之前,我也不明白这句话表示的是什么意思,但是当我这个理论顿悟了以后,我再去看这些话以后,我觉得在这个方面我明白了,所以我在这个方面我来解释一下,什么叫色即是空,什么叫凡所有相皆为虚妄。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 刚才讲到就是,万有引力,他是不存在的,是虚幻的,是假的。那么,因为只是,他只是一个阶段性的一个大众对市场的认知,同样的这个爱因斯坦或者霍金的这个理论,他也只是说在现在这个阶段呢,一个稍微更高一个级别的一个认知,但是他永远不是真理,因为我们只能无限接近真理,我们无法达到真理,得不到真理,真正的真理是遥不可及的。哲学史上,有一个著名的哲学家说过,我们现有的所有人类的认知其实相对整个宇宙来说太渺小了,所以包括我现在所讲的这些心法也好,可能也只是领先这个市场十年二十年,但是他也不是真理,真正的真理是达不到的。所以站在真理的那个角度你来看所有现有的理论的时候,你就突然会发现就是色即是空,凡所有相,皆为虚妄。就是所有这些人其实全部都是虚幻,全部都是幻觉,只有变才是不变,因为理论可以不断的进化,但是你永远达不到真正的真理。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 依然是在回答这个世界的本质问题的哲学问题,所有的高手到最后都会形成一个哲学的认知问题,在这个问题上,康德的认识论实际上才是给人类开启了一道天窗,这个世界本质上是不可被认知的,或者这个世界的本质是没有本质,从世界认知的本质再回到市场上是一个自然而然的过程,索罗斯的反身性建立的前提其实也是每个人的认知是不健全的,基于不健全的认知去参与市场,认知和市场的客观之间的关系,或者是强化,走出泡沫,或者是走出恐慌。所有的理论都是片面的,都是阶段性的,但是但是,它在阶段性是有价值的,帮助我们从某个角度,某个层面,某个时间段去认知事件,所以理论是不断发展的,但是对世界的敬畏,同样对市场的敬畏,是永远都不能缺少的。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">接下来讲一讲,我们具体的整个一个市场执行,是怎么样的一个过程,他分为多方循环、空方循环、赚钱效应、时间架构、短线的交易逻辑、如何把握热点、做短线的方法、做短线的关键几个部分。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>一、多方循环(贪婪的形成)</b></span></div></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">所谓的可操作性,就是当一个整个市场的,一个市场的情绪进入多方循环的时候,那么,这个部分我们称之为可操作性,那么多方循环,他的整个一个过程,也许可以在当中不断的再细化一些,他基本上符合这样一个规律。从一开始的酝酿(酝酿),然后酝酿之后,开始有一部分人开始赚钱了,赚钱了以后,会吸引后面的人来加入(扩散),或者是他自己一开始赚钱了以后,他觉得他的仓位不够,还有可能加大仓位,他感觉到这个市场已经可以操作了,然后这是一个强化的一个过程(高潮),然后他后面会演变到一种疯狂,就是已经大家会完全没有风险意识,感觉就是你如果再不来参与,钱都被别人赚完了,会到这样一个状态,(疯狂)然后经过整个疯狂的状态以后,然后可能会达到一个顶部之后,但是通常到达这个顶部以后如果不是政策的原因的话,也不会回落很多,纯自然的状态下,因为他经过这一段大家赚钱的时间以后,它即使回落之后,大家还是会抱有期待的一种想法(犹豫),直到这种期待慢慢慢慢的一个消亡,那么这个也就是告诉你,为什么不用害怕大盘高位满仓,哪怕你在 6000 点满仓也没关系,因为他会有一个期待和一个消亡的这个过程(崩溃),这个过程里面只要你能够捕捉到这样的情绪在的话,足够我们去进行一个策略,当然你可能不一定卖在一个最高点,你会还掉一点,但是让我们知道整个市场已经进入了期待和消亡的阶段的时候,那我们就离场就可以。打个比方这个期待是一种什么样的心理状态,那比方说现在这个市场走了这么一段,那么可能这个当中的过程当中,很多人都会犹豫,这个市场还会不会再涨,那么如果是当中的强化的一个阶段,通常是这样,也许这段时间回调了一个多礼拜,很多人看是不是牛市已经结束了,或者是怎么样,那么如果你问一个问题,如果这个时候大盘再涨起来的话,是不是那些先退出来的人,他又会重新进去的啊,还是说外面可能是不是还有更多的资金进来呢,如果当市场还是有这样一种状态的话,很可能这个地方还没结束,但是如果期待的状态是什么,是所有的人在这个地方的心理状态,他已经也变成一种,你只要再涨一点反弹我就要卖了,我不想再玩了,如果当大多数的人,处于这样一个心理状态的时候,那你赶快卖掉,因为这个接下来就是要消亡的过程,那么现在就变成你要去看看这个地方,你是要去了解他,那你就是去猜测,整个市场是不是很高的这样一个过程,是拉起来以后,很多人会再进来呢,还是你要拉起来的时候,很多人都等着,老子今天再给我解套,我一定卖掉更多,如果是这样的话,那么你赶快今天就卖掉。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 每一次市场的上涨都是故事和情绪的共同结果,在天时地利人和的共同作用下形成的一个周期或者说循环,从先知先觉或者试错的资金,到跟随的资金,接力的资金,游资等大家一起轰轰烈烈的搞的一场运动,大的行情就是大的运动,小的行情就是小的运动,每一次的运动背后反应的也都是人性,从看不懂,到怀疑,到跟随,到疯狂,到犹豫,到幻想,一步步的走到最终的破碎,技术分析的价值就在于时刻去衡量这种情绪的变化,大阳小阴是调整,大阴小阳是崩溃的前兆。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>二、空方循环(恐惧的释放)</b></span></div></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 然后空方循环, 其实他是一个基本上是一个对应的,但是他跟多方循环相比是一个空方主导,因为多方循环是一个贪婪主导,那么为什么就是说它这种规律他总是会这个样子,因为这都是人的自身的一种基因所决定的,这个也是刚才讲到的人类设计师,因为我们所有的,我们做出的一些行为,很多人觉得你是理性的,你觉得你做出了一个判断,是你自己的一种经过思考,这个深思熟虑之之后的一个判断,但是实际上我们更多的判断,我觉得是基因来做,因为我们的一个模式就是人的一个基因的求成模式,你现在所有的行为,绝大部分都是符合这样的一个逻辑的。所以,为什么这个一个男人看到一个美女身材较好的美女,她身材好不好,你不需要去什么一个具体的数据去测量,你看一眼,男的看一眼就知道了,因为你的基因早就把他做好计算了,同样的道理就是你这个贪婪的情绪,为什么你会有贪婪的情绪,因为我们的基因里面需要我们去获得更多的财富,这样以便于我们的基因可能得到的更好的这个财富。那么在这个角度,所以很多你的行为是基因在操控的,不是一个你自己真正的一种思想,除非你是真正的学过内观,学过禅定用这样的一种东西来去思考的人,但是这个 1% 的人都不到,绝大部分的人都逃不过这样的一个心理底层。 然后当这个空方循环的时候也是一样,这是一种恐惧主导的,因为它是一种求成模式决定的啊,因为我们人类总是会面对各种风险的时候,她会害怕,有的人她可能是会恐高,人的本能他觉得这个东西会危险到我的一个生命。一样的道理,当你在做一个投资的时候,如果你是把自己大部分的一个财产,放在这样的一个市场里面的时候,你正常这样也会经历这样一个情绪的分布,这个包括我们自己在过去的投资中也同样是经历过的,所以也是时刻告诉大家,我们一定要敬畏这个市场,因为如果你不敬畏这个市场,总有一天会被自己的恐惧心理所支配,因为这个过程基本上分为幻想、犹豫、抵抗、崩溃,最终崩溃盘解脱这样一个过程,因为一开始的下跌的时候,你会怀疑你觉得这个是不是这个地方可能还会上涨,这个是没有问题,那也是处于一种抵抗的状态,然后进入不断的在下跌之后,开始逐步逐步的有人崩溃了,那么有的人可能直接在这个崩溃的过程中他就会出掉,选择割肉离场,有的人可能他选择我不看这个账户,我不管这个套路我坚定这个不管,我非要解套才能卖,慢慢慢慢进入一种麻木的一种状态,那么当这种麻木的状态的时候,一直累积累积到某一个阶段,他可能就是需要寻找一种解脱,因为虽然你觉得你是麻木,但是那个地方你求成的一个本性始终在提醒自己,所以你需要一种解脱,然后你为了要解脱把手上的持仓卖掉,你看看当你那个阶段卖掉的时候,可能差不多就是一个底部了,大多数都没法避免就是这样。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 时光荏苒,历史在不断的更替,故事不断发生,形式不断的多变,投机千古年来长存,背后就是人性的恒久不变,人的贪婪和恐惧,人的幻想和崩溃,穿梭在每一个投机股市中,贪婪在利益的面前不断的放大,恐惧在幻想的崩溃后释放,每一个上涨的过程都会让贪婪淋漓尽致,每一个下跌的过程也会让恐惧彻底展现,人的本性是人的基因决定的,它是一个自动保护机制,是人的本能行为,人很难做到时刻理性的去面对自己的行为,这么做太消耗大脑的能量,也会很难,一个需要做出理性决策的行为,需要有信息的搜集,有逻辑的框架,推理的能力,情绪的控制,本能的抵抗,这是一个其实复杂和困难的过程,所以每一个需要在股市中长存的人,都需要有一个强大的自我,这是一个自我修炼的道场。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>三、赚钱效应</b></span></div></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 那么赚钱效应和羡慕嫉妒恨,他在一个多方循环当中,害怕踏空的心理会比落袋为安的一个心理更强,所以为什么就是这个市场就是,很容易一旦上涨会速度非常的快啊,因为很多人会有一种害怕踏空的心态。因为这样的一种心理在我看来,会比落袋为安的这种心理表现的是更加强的,所以呢也是因为这样的一种心理在,我们通常有机会去把握一些这个超预期的一些行情,因为往往这个市场就上涨的时候会超过一个你的预期,因为有很多人害怕他以后他会不断的进入,一直到这种多方的这个所有的这个筹码然后全部压在这个市场里边来,没有逻辑的筹码,指数一个没有混迹的筹码,那么市场才会进入到一个顶部的一个过程,否则只要有这种害怕,他们不会轻易存在的话,我们可能他这个一个多方的循环就不结束,那么成交增量,这个就是说在市场这个上涨的一个过程当中啊,我们最好是希望就是说市场他是表现的是有一个增量的话,这样的话呢因为他实际上是什么呢?就是说他一部分是资金落袋为安以后他害怕踏空,然后他会不断的买回来,这个就是所谓的一个存量的资金,他是不断的进入,退出来,然后看到这个市场又涨上去了,害怕踏空又进去,然后进去了以后可能又有点担心又出来,场内的资金可能是这样的一个过程,但是因为这些真经历这样一个过程的人实际上它大多数是一个赚钱的,如果是一个赚钱的过程的话,那么通常他会增加我叫羡慕嫉妒恨的成员,因为如果,我不知道大家有没有经历过就是,因为以前这个我在学校里面也好啊,在这个公司也好,我记得那个那一年我在学校里面的时候,就是我是 1997 年去开户的,然后开户了以后我是跟我另外一个同学一起去开户,开完户然后我们刚好碰到一个人,当时正好是 519 的行情,然后因为我们赚钱了嘛,我们两个人在不断的讨论股票,怎么样怎么样,一开始的时候,我们寝室里面的同学说,你们两个不好好学,天天讨论股票,你们这样会影响学的,然后这个到后来,因为会有一个赚钱效应嘛,我们不断的在赚钱,然后接下来就是会有其他的同学会加入到我们的行列中来,然后到最后我们整个一个寝室,然后所有的人都去开户了,因为这个是没有办法的一个过程,因为如果你是在一个群体当中的话,你想想看,如果你是大家在一个寝室,如果你所在的一个群体有人开始在想,那么其他的同学就会有一种羡慕,是我们的一个基本状态,那么他们就很容易也会有加入到我们这样的一个行列中来,那么这样的一个过程他就会表现的是市场的一种成交量,它的一个上升的过程和表现。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 赚钱效应会带来羊群效应,会带来更多模仿者和参与者,他们进入股市都是因为赚钱,而不是因为故事,或者他们听到了一些,刚买进入可能也会赚一些钱,兴奋的可能还会加钱进来,存量资金和增量资金一起去推动故事的发展。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>四、龙头股</b></span></div></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 英雄的一个力量,就是我们这个市场当中就是,很多股票的这个上涨,可能一开始我们也搞不清楚为什么他会上涨,比如说像这一轮比较典型的就是,</span><a class="ycCss" href="https://m.taoguba.com.cn/mSearch?searchContent=%E4%B8%9C%E6%96%B9%E9%80%9A%E4%BF%A1&type=2" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">东方通信</a><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> ,它在我看来他就是一个典型的一个精神领袖,就是为什么我们这波行情,过完年以后啊有这样的一波很强大的一波赚钱效应,很大程度上,就是从游资的角度来说,很大程度上就是因为有</span><a class="ycCss" href="https://m.taoguba.com.cn/mSearch?searchContent=%E4%B8%9C%E6%96%B9%E9%80%9A&type=2" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">东方通</a><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 信这样的一个标的,我们把它视作英雄,哇这样的一个标的,他在市场在下跌的时候,它涨了 5 倍 7 倍往 10 倍的方向上去,那么这样的一种强烈的赚钱效应下,一种英雄的力量感召下,很多的人就会觉得这个地方,应该为什么我不能长这么多,你东方通信你是炒什么啊?你是炒 </span><a class="ycCss" href="https://m.taoguba.com.cn/quotes/gn/5G" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">5G</a><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 吗?你是炒你国企的英雄吗?融资融券的因素吗?然后我们其他也有很多类似这样的标的,我觉得你东方通信可以涨这么多,我为什么不可以涨这么多,那么在这样的一个基础上,然后后来逐步引发了这样大家看到的这样的一波行情,多巴胺效应是会上瘾的啊,因为我觉得这个也是人性,因为你在股市这个不断的操作赚钱,它会产生一个多巴胺的一个这种效应,那么其实一样这个是基因的原因,因为人如果说你是获得了一种快乐,如果你获得了这种快乐是,一些短暂的不是持续的,这个时候,它这个基因就会想办法去让你这个去用一种上瘾的方式让你去更多的做这样的一个行为,那么我们可以根据这个多巴胺的效应,对我们来说这个市场上面,我们知道很多的这个股票,每个人都有不同的模式,比如市场上有一群像我们这样的人这个做股票叫做打板就是在涨停板上买股票,那么这个打板呢这个人啊,他打了这个板以后它如果发现这段时间打板经常赚钱,这个时候他会获得了这个快乐,有些所谓的我们叫五星好的股票啊,就是这个标的打板了以后他老是让你赚钱,就像东方通信这样的,在之前的一段时间里面,然后这样的话,很多人就会上瘾,只要东方通信去涨他就会去打这个板,他的这个行为是已经变成了是一种上瘾的模式了,变成一种惯性模式,然后只要再继续赚钱他就会继续时刻进行一个这样的一个个行为。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 通常为所选择的标的通常都是所谓股性较好,他是能让这个打板的人能够赚钱的这样的一些标的,因为这些行为他会在后面他通常还会有一个延续性,那么如果你在某一个地方,你找到了一个预期差,然后那个里面包含的类似这样的标的,那么你可以预感到他后面只要这个东西,受到了信息刺激或者受到了这个相关的这个资金去推动以后,他肯定那些曾经打过板的人还会继续做出同样的这个行为,那么你就可以进行一个相对应的这个一个套路的一个行为。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /><div style="text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>五、时间架构</b></span></div></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 接下来讲一下时间架构,因为我的自己的大部分的交易可能是相对来说是偏一个短线的交易模式,但是我觉得短线的交易有时候还是要依附于一个中长期的一个时间架构才比较好啊,特别是觉得最近的这个几年,因为我的一些包括这些心法理论,就是通过这个更多的受众群体得到了学以后,他其实已经不断的在这个市场养成,他不断的得到了一个进化啊,那么在这样的一个基础上面,我还想获得超额收益的话,那么我觉得我们就是打个比方,就是以前我们其实有一个很简单的方法就可以赚钱了,只要这一天我们觉得大盘大概率没有问题,然后有一个最强的板块,还有很多股票可以涨停,我们大概也知道这个板块是收盘之后大家讨论最多的一个板块,那么很简单你只要在当天你把筹码都推进去,都去买这个板块,你大概率你第二天会赚钱的,但是演变到今天的话发现不是这样的了,因为这个市场他在不断的进化了,因为更多的人知道了这样的一个秘密,所以也许本来这一天他不该有这个板块发动的,但是因为大家哎觉得我只要用这样的方法然后一定可以赚钱了,基本上这个方法在 5 年以前是屡试不爽的,很多这个早期的这个涨停敢死队,就是通过这个简单的方法,他们今天买明天卖,然后就可以获得很多的财富啊,但是到今天的话,这样一个简单的模型相对来说就会不那么有效性了,因为整个市场经历不断的进化以后,那么大家基本上一个整体上都达到了这样的一个程度,那么所以我们更多的是需要别人看 2 天的时候,那你就需要可能是需要看 3 天,5 天或者甚至更长的一个周期,如果你能把那个周期看的一个更清楚的话,那么再来做这个短线的话,你可能才能获得以更高的一个成功率,中长线交易以短周期的积累为点的话,那么同样就是我们的操作里面,虽然很多时候一开始是短期的,但是有些标的我们愿意到后面拿的更长,我们看到了更长的一个时间架构,然后他可能这样的一些标的是我们觉得是,成为一个阶段的一个核心,在这样的一个情况下,我们是变成了一种短线的一种交易的一种累积。<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">大概在 12 年的时候,我跟现在市场上就是那些顶尖的那些游资在一起交流的时候,他们绝大部分的人,还是今天今天买明天卖的一种方式,因为他们会觉得,我今天大概是好的,我通过当天的一个走势,我大概是说能够推断出来,但是明天是不确定的,所以对他们来说,他们觉得操作就是放在一天,这个起来就已经操作了。但是后来发现,其实第二天卖掉了这个股票以后,他会发现可能然后这个过程它也没有完,然后你还是要买,然后你发现还是你手的那个标的是最好的一个标的,那么如果是这样的话,那就其实没有必要,就是第二天就把这个头寸解决掉,那你是可以持有一段,然后获得一个更高层的收益。然后同时关注周期品种的一个价格演变,并且发现一个规律啊。因为我们发现整个这个资本市场他,这些股票他根据他价格的变化分为不同的周期,那么同样一个周期的时候,他可能会展现出差不多的一些规律,那么如果你是不同周期的,有不同周期的一个规律,我们根据周期的一个不同啊,然后找到这样的一些规律,然后来进行一个操作。比如说我打个比方啊,比如说这一波行情啊,虽然我们是说在大家通常能够感觉到了,是在两月份的中旬,通常就是过完年以后然后开始发动的,但是其实有一批标的它们是领先一个周期的,就是以</span><a class="ycCss" href="https://m.taoguba.com.cn/mSearch?searchContent=%E8%8C%85%E5%8F%B0&type=2" style="background-color: white; border-bottom: 1px dotted rgb(51, 51, 51); color: #333333; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">茅台</a><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 格力为代表的一些品种,他们基本上是在一月份就开始发动了,这样的一个。所以呢,对我来说就是可能我就是会看看这个市场什么时候见顶的话,我会把这些茅台、格力这些作为一个领先的标的,因为他们大概领先了一个多月的一个周期,那么如果这些标的他们没有见顶的话,那么很可能这个行情啊并没有见顶。当然这个他只是不同周期,并不代表你茅台能够创新高,其他股票一定能够创新高,只是表示他的周期并没有结束,但是不排除他的周期,茅台人呢是这样的,其他的股票可能是他是以一种震荡的方式来演化他的一个上涨周期啊,但是,基本它上涨周期是上涨周期,但是上涨周期不一定代表它价格肯定会上涨。同样的下跌的周期,有的下跌的周期他是表现的非常的强,这是一个对一个周期的大致推理。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGE7TjdBWtjh7MYn2yuAsi8wNJsPPgMipHM0sjx_PpasETg2mKfejiDhMD5eJlDvpRRWRT6SlwFL4hg--zVC_CeaRsKXhGxMmsTCWzZFCFhv0vFUNoHGeADqTZP0qx53c2bDJGQT5SZ85Bg9z3syVSche159B757pJRsfDSmkf0Q9VzeISYbdYNNQaIw/s1152/2fffcecd81c4fa68a857162716099a392f3e5fd6.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="720" data-original-width="1152" height="279" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGE7TjdBWtjh7MYn2yuAsi8wNJsPPgMipHM0sjx_PpasETg2mKfejiDhMD5eJlDvpRRWRT6SlwFL4hg--zVC_CeaRsKXhGxMmsTCWzZFCFhv0vFUNoHGeADqTZP0qx53c2bDJGQT5SZ85Bg9z3syVSche159B757pJRsfDSmkf0Q9VzeISYbdYNNQaIw/w447-h279/2fffcecd81c4fa68a857162716099a392f3e5fd6.png" width="447" /></a></div><br /><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 每一个周期的开始都有有一个启动的插杆起义,那个起义的红旗就是领先周期的扛把子,他们起着重要的市场引领作用。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 短线交易的一个逻辑觉得这一点是比较重要的,就是因为我们很多人在这个交易的过程当中经常会迷失掉,因为我们会发现好像这个股票为什么会上涨,好像是因为这样的原因,或者是那样的一个原因,因为刚好碰到了这样的一个某一个,比如说某一个技术指标,或者某一个事情。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 板块的强度和持续性,通常板块的强度是越强越好,但是现在也是同样因为这个市场的进化,所以很多就会产生很多这个很多的强度就带有攻击性的,所以现在我们就是要更多的来重新审视这个问题,在当年可能这个方法辨别的成功概率非常非常高的。但是在现在这个市场进化的一个角度下我们可能他还是一个依据,但是我们可能需要考虑的更加的一个远一点,持续性呢这个也是很重要的,可能是一个板块,如果说你今天啊虽然是发动的时候强度也很高,这个协同能力也很好,各方面都表现的非常的不错,但是如果是第二天马上让这些第一天就让大部分进攻的人都赔钱的话,那么这样的话,你的持续性不太好的话,那么可能后面这个板块可能她并不是一个太好操作的一个板块,对我们来说最好的板块应该是同时要具备这个 4 个特性,还要好的持续性,能让做出攻击行为的这些投资者能够赚到钱,有了这个一个持续性的保障,这样的一些板块对我们来说才是比较适合操作的。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 先判断情绪周期阶段,再选用该用的方法:强势阶段,做强势股,弱势阶段做超跌反弹,震荡阶段做试错。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 我们首先就是要搞清楚市场在一个什么样的阶段,然后选用该用的一个方法,市场如果是在一个强势的一个阶段,通常我们选择做最牛的股票的一个组成,然后,有可能的话,就是这样的标语也可以这个多拿几个,然后如果是在一个弱势阶段,我们是用一个超跌反弹的方法。关于强势阶段,就是我再补充一下这个强势阶段,为什么做这种的最强势的筹码,就是这个一个数学过程是什么样子的?就是因为在一个强势强势市场里面,那么它实际上是不断的有增量进来的,那么打个比方讲,就是我们觉得进入了一个快速的一个增量资金阶段。那么这个增量资金阶段,比如说每天假设会有 100 亿的增量资金会来到这个市场,那么这个 100 亿的资金,他们是怎么选择这些标的呢?那么他们并不是我们 3000 多个标的完全平摊分配,他一定有的股票分配到的多,有的股票分配到的少,那么对我们来说,既然如果是这个一个有增量资金的一个市场,尽可能的去找到能够增量资金获得更多的那个部分,去进行一个操作。那么获得更多的一个部分,那其实原理是什么,就是那个部分筹码,它通常是更有人气,那么更有人气的标的,它通常就是什么,通常就是那些最牛的那些股票,最牛的那些股票,让人不断赚钱的那些股票。那些股票是被最具备这个人气的,那么如果你是在一个增量的一个市场阶段,那么你参与这样的一些标的就好了。那么,也许你感觉上他好像涨了很多了,让你感到害怕,但是因为他如果后面还能得到更多的一个增量资金的话,也许从数学的一个逻辑上,他是他是性价比最优的一个方式,这个所以为什么在一个强势的阶段,我们经常要做主升浪。其实我们从这个模型来说,也不是选择最牛的股票,选择你在这个阶段能够获得更多的增量资金的一个标的,应该逻辑上是这样,是通常这样,增量资金来自于这些最牛的个股,直到这个牛股因为涨到了某一个高度以后,因为他实在太高了,里面的人都要选择卖出的,而增量的人他可能觉得实在这个标的虽然还是很有人气,但是这个已经涨了十倍了,他要后一点的那个标的的时候,重新选择一个,启动一个新的一个方法,那么那个时候我们再来选择。通常他仍然是一个人气标的,只是这个人气标点他会不断的有一个替换的一个过程。<br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;">然后在一个弱势的一个阶段,弱势的阶段呢,我们通常的操作,一般来说最好弱势阶段就是尽量减少操作,如果说我们弱势阶段勉强把握一些机会的话,也不是不可以。那么通常的这种阶段,我们做的一个方法叫超跌反弹的方法,通常就是帮我们找一个所谓的一个情绪崩溃点,在超跌的时候买一个这个超跌的板块里面选择超跌的个股,那么通常这种的操作也往往第二天就是要走的,也不要有太多的想法,即使套牢了你也一定要走的,尽量也不要补仓明天这个,是做一把非常短的短线,不管赚不赚钱,尽量第二天就走。</span></span></span></div><div style="text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"><br /></span></span><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #333333;"> 如果是一个平衡的格局,在一个平衡的时间点,那么可能就是说会产生一种情况,就是说有时候这个热点你追上去,效果不一定好,但是,他也不一定下跌。但是,如果是追上去的话,如果去追涨的话,可能他持续性不太好,那这个追涨的效果也不一定到底要多长时间,所以如果你手上持有的标的,可能也不一定会亏钱。但是你去打板的话,持续性不好的话,反而可能要亏钱,在这样的一种阶段呢,可能比较适合埋伏,可能会炒作的一个题材,这个可以根据对这个一些政策的判断,一些这个事件的时间发生点,然后可以去进行一些推理,然后进行一些所谓的埋伏的一些操作,当然我当我觉得有可能产生这个突破的时候,需要有一些试错的想法会更适合这样的一个过程,就是你可能,比如说像现在是一种偏向震荡的行情,那么我们的操作,我会选择打首板的去操作,是一种试错的一种心态,如果这个要你整个市场一直到真的产生了突破的时候,板块也产生了突破的时候,那我们再加大仓位进入一个顺势而为的一个操作。</span></span></span></div>GUMPhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01277892763608010881noreply@blogger.com0